p

Hypothesis testing is a well-known procedure for data analysis widely used in scientific papers but, at the same time, strongly criticized and its use questioned and restricted in some cases due to inconsistencies observed from their application. This issue is analyzed in this paper on the basis of the fundamentals of the statistical methodology and the different approaches that have been historically developed to solve the problem of statistical hypothesis analysis highlighting a not well known point: the P value is a random variable. The fundamentals of Fisher´s, Neyman-Pearson´s and Bayesian´s solutions are analyzed and based on them, the inconsistency of the commonly used procedure of determining a p value, compare it to a type I error value (usually 0.05) and get a conclusion is discussed and, on their basis, inconsistencies of the data analysis procedure are identified, procedure consisting in the identification of a P value, the comparison of the P-value with a type-I error value –whichis usually considered to be 0.05– and upon this the decision on the conclusions of the analysis. Additionally, recommendations on thebest way to proceed when solving a problem are presented, as well as the methodological and teaching challenges to be faced when analyzing correctly the data and determining the validity of the hypotheses.Key words: Neyman-Pearson’s hypothesis tests, Fisher’s significance tests, Bayesian hypothesis tests, Vancouver norms, P-value, null-hypothesis.Las Pruebas de Hipótesis son el procedimiento de análisis más conocido por los investigadores y utilizado en las revistas científicas pero, a su vez, ellas han sido fuertemente criticadas, su uso ha sido cuestionado y restringido en algunos casos por las inconsistencias observadas en su aplicación. Este problema se analiza, en este artículo, tomando como punto de partida los Fundamentos de la Metodología Estadística y los diferentes enfoques que históricamente se han desarrollado para abordar el problema del análisis de las Hipótesis Estadísticas. Resaltándose un punto poco conocido por algunos: el carácter aleatorio de los valores P. Se presentan los fundamentos de las soluciones de Fisher, Neyman-Pearson y Bayesiana y a partir de ellas se identifican las inconsistencias del procedimiento de conducta que indica identificar un valor P, compararlo con el valor del error de tipo I –que usualmente es considerado como 0,05- y a partir de ahí decidir las conclusiones del análisis. Adicionalmente se identifican recomendaciones sobre cómo proceder en un problema, así como los retos a enfrentar, en lo docente y en lo metodológico, para analizar correctamente los datos y determinar la validez de las hipótesis de interés.Palabras clave: Pruebas de Hipótesis de Neyman-Pearson. Pruebas de Significación de Fisher. Pruebas de Hipótesis Bayesianas. Normasde Vancouver. Valores P. Hipótesis nada.Os testes de hipóteses são o método de análise melhor conhecido por pesquisadores e utilizado em revistas científicas; mas por sua vez, têm sido fortemente criticados, seu uso tem sido questionado e, em alguns casos restritos pelas inconsistências observadas na sua aplicação. Esse problema é discutido neste artigo, tendo como ponto de partida os Fundamentos da Metodologia Estatística e as diferentes abordagens que historicamente têm sido desenvolvidas para resolver o problema da analise das Hipóteses Estatísticas. Destacando-se um ponto pouco conhecido por alguns: o caráter aleatório do p-valor. Apresentam-se os fundamentos das soluções de Fisher, Neyman-Pearson e Bayesiana e delas são identificadas as inconsistências do procedimento de conduta que orienta identificar um p-valor para compará-lo com o valor do erro de tipo I, que é geralmente considerado como 0,05 - e, posteriormente, decidir as conclusões da análise. Além disso, se identificam recomendações sobre como proceder num problema, e os desafios a serem enfrentados no ensino e no metodológico, para analisar corretamente os dados e determinar a validade das hipóteses de interesse.Palavras-chave: teste de hipóteses de Neyman-Pearson, testes de significância de Fisher, testes de hipóteses Bayesianas, normas deVancouver, p-valor, hipótese nula

Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare

This paper evaluates the short term impacts on poverty of pro-poor expenditure and total social expenditure during the 1999-2002 period of Bolivian economic recession. Observed characteristics of recession are simulated by the combined effects of negative terms of trade shock, reduction in foreign saving flows and low output growth. Evaluation is performed by simulating the impacts of shocks and social expenditures in an environment of low growth: i) on macro aggregates of consumption, income, saving and prices (based on a simple static 1-2-3 model built with 1998 data as the base year), ii) on household income and consumption levels by quintiles and areas, and iii) on consumption based poverty indicators by areas. The following were main results from experiments: The terms of trade shock had greater negative impact on household income then reduction in foreign saving flows. In contrast, reduction in foreign saving flows had greater negative impact on household consumption then the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the head count ratio has been greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the poverty gap and poverty intensity has concentrated in rural areas, being greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Under macroeconomic stability (no shocks and 1998 macro conditions) social expenditure policy for poverty reduction would have had an important positive impact on household income and consumption levels (more so in income then consumption), in reducing the number of poor (more in urban then rural areas), and in reducing poverty gap and poverty intensity (more so in rural areas). However, social expenditure policy does not promote the production of tradables. The combined positive effects from observed social expenditure policy and effort in an environment of low output growth, did not compensate the combined negative impacts from the experienced terms of trade shock and reduction in foreign saving flows. These conclusions show that under macroeconomic disequilibrium poverty reduction efforts become policies of poverty containment or safety net programs. Poverty reduction is a long term objective that requires long term commitment for an environment on macroeconomic stability.External Shocks; Poverty; CGEM 1-2-3; HEGY

Social protection systems in Latin America and the Caribbean: Plurinational State of Bolivia

Includes bibliographyThis report is part of a series of national case studies aimed at disseminating knowledge on the current status of social protection systems in Latin American and Caribbean countries, and at discussing their main challenges in terms of realizing of the economic and social rights of the population and achieving key development goals, such as combating poverty and hunger.I. Introduction: social protection in the Plurinational State of Bolivia .-- II. Plurinational State of Bolivia: main economic, poverty and social spending indicators .-- III. The structure of the social protection and promotion system: sectoral interventions .-- IV. Final remarks

Dramaturgy and the Plausible Wonder in Restoration Fiction, 1660–1670

Mackenzie’s roman-à-clef Aretina (1660) seems to foresee or, indeed, to capture the reopening of theatres when, at the end of Book 1, a group of actors present a monster (and a show) “upon a stage, whereon the Commedians used to act,” and the narrator subsequently summarises the performance taking place on the palace’s neglected stage. Nevertheless, the reopening of theatres had little or no immediate influence on the new English prose fiction published in the 1660s. As far as prose fiction is concerned, scholarly criticism about the Restoration theatre–novel interface addresses the period after—not before—1670. Yet, if areas of intersection are investigated, then a spectrum of quite different, isolated instances will emerge; from Margaret Cavendish’s remarks on her contemporary plays to events inspired by theatrical contrivances. This article therefore seeks to explore the presence of theatre and dramaturgy in the new English fiction published in the early years of the Restoration. The first part offers a comprehensive survey of theatrical thumbprints in this corpus of texts by considering the issues raised in literary criticism on the topic, such as dialogues, epistles and soliloquies, historical novels and first-person narratives. The second part pinpoints the episodes in high romances where wonder is no longer caused by magic, enchantment or any other supernatural intervention, but arises from calculated staging effects and devices. Authors of romances in the early years of the Restoration period contributed to the development of the English novel by making the moments of wonder more spectacular for characters, and more credible for readers, in line with the emerging scientific culture.This article is a result of the research project “Early Novel in English, 1660–1700: Database and Textual Editing” (ENEID), financed by MINECO (Ref. FFI2017–82728–P)

The History of the Seven Wise Mistrisses of Rome (1663) como literatura infantil: historia textual, género y motivos de la literatura popular

This article analyses The History of the Seven Wise Mistrisses of Rome, attributed to Thomas Howard, and traditionally underrated by literary critics and historians as a mere imitation of the Seven Sages, despite its enormous success. The early parts examine the literary and editorial relationship with its source text, and Howard’s prefatory “Epistle.” The latter parts concentrate on the frame story and the fifteen exemplary tales. Special attention is drawn to the gender/feminist issues in the original extension of the frame story, and to the folktale motifs displayed in this compilation, stylistically and thematically conceived to help children improve their reading competence.Este artículo analiza The History of the Seven Wise Mistrisses of Rome, atribuido a Thomas Howard, y tradicionalmente infravalorado por la crítica e historia literarias como una simple imitación de Los siete sabios de Roma, a pesar de su enorme éxito. Las dos primeras partes examinan la relación literaria y editorial con el texto fuente, y la epístola inicial de Howard. Las partes finales se centran en la historia principal y los quince cuentos moralizantes. Especial atención merecen los temas de género/feministas en la novedosa extensión de la historia marco, y los motivos de cuentos populares presentes en esta colección, estilística y temáticamente ideada para ayudar al público más joven a mejorar su competencia lectora

Scenic and Textual Venice in Muriel Spark’s Territorial Rights

Discusses Muriel Spark\u27s “international comedy of manners” Territorial Rights (1979), both as a heavily-plotted and starkly-realistic thriller about a wouldbe criminal in Venice who challenges an American millionaire, till both are defeated by the machinations of the secretive agency GESS, and in terms of Park\u27s satirical view on western moral decadence and metafictional concerns, arguing that the narrator’s apparently limited omniscience brings together a compelling polyphony of characters, rendering events through their individual, unreliable, and often contradictory points of view

The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Bolivia

This paper uses a CES function to estimate the constant elasticity of substitution in consumption for non-tradables relative to tradables in a dependent economy framework. The methodology for generating data on real consumption of tradable and non-tradable goods, real prices of tradable and non-tradable goods and real absorption is based on the Bolivian Input-Output Matrix, producing quarterly data for the period 1990. 1 to 2002. 4. The data identify Bolivia as a country highly open to trade, with an average ratio of 55 percent in the value of exports and imports relative to GDP, non-tradable production accounting for 52 percent of GDP, and differences in the behavior of the internal and external real exchange rates. The HEGY test is used to identify and separate out seasonal unit roots in the data. A cointegration relationship was found between real absorption, the non-tradable to tradable consumption ratio and the non-tradable to tradable price ratio, suggesting inelasticity of substitution.

Sistema Financiero Nicaraguense : Análisis de la situación financiera del banco de la Producción,S.A. (BANPRO),durante el periodo comprendido del año 2011 al 2015

El presente trabajo de seminario de graduación, denominado “Análisis financiero del Banco de la Producción(BANPRO), S.A., durante el periodo comprendido del año 2011 al 2015’’, cuyo objetivo principal fue analizar la situación financiera del banco comercial (BANPRO) del periodo 2011 al 2015 , utilizando la herramienta del Análisis Financiero, en el cual, se aplicaron las técnicas de Análisis Vertical, Horizontal, Razones Financieras, Series de Tiempo y el Análisis de Corte Transversal; analizados a través del Balance de Situación Financiera y el Estado de Resultados, en función del comportamiento que han presentado los Activos, Pasivos, Patrimonio, Endeudamiento y los Márgenes de Rendimientos de la institución, para lograr alcanzar los objetivos planteados en el estudio. El análisis de los resultados, mostró que los activos del BANPRO crecieron en un 34%, los pasivos en un 31% y el patrimonio en un 69%, mientras que el grado de endeudamiento, también medido a través del índice de endeudamiento, tuvo una reducción del 2%. En lo que se refiere a la rentabilidad del capital, la rentabilidad de los activos y la rentabilidad neta, se incrementaron en 82%, 50% y 100%, respectivamente, durante el período 2011-2015. Con el análisis de los resultados obtenidos, se pudo concluir que la situación financiera del BANPRO para el período 2011-2015, según el análisis de la información financiera obtenida de los estados financieros de la entidad, es confiable para los diversos actores internos y externos de la institución bancaria

Un estudio empírico de los honorarios del auditor

ResumenLa reciente normativa que requiere desde 2002 la revelación de los honorarios facturados por las firmas de auditoría a sus clientes, indicando los correspondientes a cada servicio prestado, nos ha brindado la oportunidad de abordar un análisis empírico del nivel y composición de los honorarios para el caso español. La cuestión es relevante porque se aportan nuevas evidencias acerca del mercado de servicios profesionales y del grado de competitividad existente. Así, analizamos sus factores explicativos y la posible determinación conjunta de los honorarios por servicios de auditoría y consultoría, y documentamos cómo el conocimiento adquirido en unas actividades es aprovechado en otras (knowledge spillovers), sin que sea posible conocer en qué modo las economías de alcance obtenidas se distribuyen entre auditor (en forma de mayores beneficios) y cliente (en forma de menores precios), lo que dependerá del grado de competencia de este mercado. Adicionalmente, no hemos obtenido evidencia de precios introductorios iniciales de choque (lowballing). Finalmente, los honorarios facturados por servicios de consultoría no son diferentes entre las grandes firmas, pero los devengados por trabajos de auditoría son significativamente menores en las pequeñas, no existiendo en este caso estrategias de precios distintas entre las cuatro grandes. Nuestros resultados son robustos y se mantienen con el empleo de diferentes modelos y especificaciones alternativas.AbstractThe new regulation requiring the disclosure of audit fees split by type of services since 2002, has allowed us to undertake an empirical analysis of the level and composition of the fees in the Spanish market. Our analysis provides new relevant evidence on the market for professional services and the existing level of competition. We analyze their determinants as well as the possible joint assessment of the fees for audit and consulting services. Our results show that knowledge creation in certain activities is applied to create value via the provision of other services (knowledge spillovers). However, it does not seem possible to characterize the ways in which economies of scope are shared between the auditor (in terms of higher revenues) and the client (in terms of lower prices), as this appears to depend on the extent of competition in the market. Furthermore, we could not obtain evidence documenting the existence of lowballing. Finally, we found that the fees charged for consulting services do not differ significantly across big audit firms (who seem to have similar price strategies), but audit fees are significantly lower in the case of small firms. Our results are robust in the presence of different models and alternative specification