The application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions.

ABSTRACT: Reliable predictions and accompanying uncertainty estimates of coastal evolution on decadal to centennial time scales are increasingly sought. So far, most coastal change projections rely on a single, deterministic realization of the unknown future wave climate, often derived from a global climate model. Yet, deterministic projections do not account for the stochastic nature of future wave conditions across a variety of temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, seasonally, and interannually). Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter shoreline change model to predict coastal erosion and uncertainty due to waves at a variety of time scales. We compare shoreline change projections, simulated with and without ensemble wave forcing conditions by applying ensemble wave time series produced by a computationally efficient statistical downscaling method. We demonstrate a sizable (site-dependent) increase in model uncertainty compared with the unrealistic case of model projections based on a single, deterministic realization (e.g., a single time series) of the wave forcing. We support model-derived uncertainty estimates with a novel mathematical analysis of ensembles of idealized process models. Here, the developed ensemble modeling approach is applied to a well-monitored beach in Tairua, New Zealand. However, the model and uncertainty quantification techniques derived here are generally applicable to a variety of coastal settings around the world

A Multiscale Approach to Shoreline Prediction

ABSTRACT: Shorelines respond to a number of "drivers" operating on a variety of time-scales. For some time-scales (e.g., seasonal), the driver-shoreline relationship is often evident; however, at longer timescales (e.g., multiannual), the shoreline changes may be superimposed on changes at shorter time-scales and thus are diffcult to identify. Here, we predict shoreline evolution from storm events to decadal timescales, using a novel approach based on the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition. This approach identifies and links the primary time-scales in the model drivers (large-scale sea level pressure [SLP] and/or waves) with the same time-scales in the shoreline position. The multiscale approach reproduced shoreline changes at two beaches more skillfully than a common shoreline model when SLP and wave information were used in combination. In addition, the analysis can be applied to climate indices, providing the opportunity to link longer time-scales with climate patterns (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation)

Análisis financiero de Mastercard

Este proyecto de tesis tratará sobre la corporación internacional MasterCard. Esta empresa ha crecido no sólo financieramente sino también en otros ámbitos. Se ha distinguido por realizar importantes avances en el mercado de valores y obtener beneficios en un corto periodo de tiempo. Su localización está en Purchase, Nueva York, en Estados Unidos. Los clientes pueden utilizar sus tarjetas de débito o crédito en cualquier parte del mundo sin sufrir grandes molestias, y tiene oficinas en todos los países para atender personalmente las quejas, las sugerencias de mejora y las felicitaciones por el trabajo bien hecho. Desde una perspectiva económica, se evidencia la estructura de liquidez para los años 2022 y 2021 era ideal. El ROA también nos muestra que, entre otros importantes indicadores financieros de fácil lectura y comprensión, se mantiene la relación entre deuda y fondos propios, generando unos envidiables céntimos de beneficio neto por cada dólar invertido en 2022 y 2021. A lo largo del proyecto quedará claro que la empresa está recibiendo un asesoramiento sólido por parte de expertos que poseen los conocimientos, la experiencia y las capacidades para innovar de forma que beneficie al mercado. Gracias a sus nuevas asociaciones, ha captado nuevos clientes. Palabras Claves: Análisis macroeconómico, análisis de rentabilidad, análisis Financieros, apalancamiento operativo, análisis estratégicos.This thesis project will deal with the international corporation MasterCard. This company has grown not only financially but also in other areas. He has distinguished himself by making significant advances in the stock market and obtaining profits in a short period of time. Its location is in Purchase, New York, in the United States. Customers can use their debit or credit cards anywhere in the world without suffering major inconvenience, and it has offices in all countries to personally address complaints, suggestions for improvement, and congratulations for a job well done. From an economic perspective, it is evident that the liquidity structure for the years 2022 and 2021 was ideal. The ROA also shows us that, among other important financial indicators that are easy to read and understand, the relationship between debt and equity is maintained, generating enviable cents of net profit for every dollar invested in 2022 and 2021. Throughout the project it will be clear that the company is receiving solid advice from experts who have the knowledge, experience and capabilities to innovate in a way that benefits the market. Thanks to its new partnerships, it has acquired new clients. Keywords: Macroeconomic analysis, profitability analysis, financial analysis, operating leverage, strategic analysi

Padres y madres de la nueva era cartilla didáctica para padres y madres sobre el deseo sexual en la adolescencia

Curso de Especial Interés: en sexualidadEl trabajo de investigación pretende informar a padres y madres de familia sobre la educación y el deseo sexual en los y las adolescentes y de qué manera puede adquirir estrategias de comunicación, con el fin de generar espacios donde se promueva la libre expresión, y el respeto por la opinión del otro. Así mismo, se pretende destacar el rol y la importancia de padres y madres en la educación sexual de sus hijos e hijas, teniendo en cuenta que la familia es el núcleo principal de todo individuo, así mismo la cartilla virtual realizada está dirigida a suplir esta falta de información y como herramienta de apoyo para los padres y madres de familia para lograr una buena educación sexual impartida por ellos que logre fortalecer lo que a nivel nacional se está haciendo en las instituciones educativas.Justificación x • Objetivos • Metodología • Estudio de mercadeo • resultados • conclusiones • recomendacionesPregradoPsicólog

Sexual orientation and gender identity change efforts and suicide morbidity among sexual and gender minority adults in Colombia

Purpose: We assessed the association between sexual orientation and gender identity change efforts (SOGICE) experiences and lifetime suicide morbidity among sexual and gender minority (SGM) groups in Colombia. Methods: A sample of 4160 SGM Colombian adults responded to an online cross-sectional survey. We used binary logistic regression to assess the relationship between SOGICE and suicide morbidity for the overall sample and stratified by SGM group. Results: We found a high prevalence of suicidal ideation (56%), suicide planning (54%), suicide attempt (25%), and SOGICE experiences (22%). There were significant differences in the prevalence of suicide morbidity and SOGICE experiences across SGM groups, with transgender men and gender nonbinary participants being generally most at risk. SOGICE experiences were associated with 69% increased odds of suicidal ideation, 55% increased odds of suicide planning, and 76% increased odds of suicide attempt. Stratified analyses by SGM group showed that the association of SOGICE experiences with suicide morbidity varied by SGM group, and it was particularly detrimental for cisgender sexual minority men. Conclusions: Suicide morbidity among SGM adults in Colombia is high, with rates that are 8–22 times higher than in the general population. SOGICE experiences further exacerbate suicide risk. The study findings highlight the need to design and implement policies affirming diverse sexual orientation and gender identities in Colombia and to ban SOGICE practices. These findings also highlight the importance of recognizing the variability within SGM groups and the need to examine these groups separately rather than treating them as a monolithic grou

Lectura de contexto y abordaje psicosocial desde los enfoques narrativos Corozal.

El siguiente trabajo tiene como finalidad que los estudiantes del curso de diplomado realicen una revisión minuciosa de los contenidos de la unidad 1 a la 10 y con base a ello escojan uno de los relatos propuestos en la actividad los cuales buscan que el estudiante realice un proceso de análisis, reflexión profundizaran acerca de los esfuerzos personales, familiares, colectivos y comunitarios que en él se movilizan para romper ciclos de violencia e injusticia. Es de recalcar que estas historias dibujan marcas y escenarios de violencia que han acontecido en nuestro país. Seguidamente en consenso de grupo escogerán un solo relato y diseñaran preguntas que le realizarían al protagonista del caso escogido. Por ultimo con otro caso propuesto en la guía que se llama Pandurí se plasmaran estrategias y acciones de acompañamiento psicosocial con el fin de las víctimas del conflicto afronten con valentía lo que les sucedió y sigan luchando día a día por sus sueños. Según la (OMS) La violencia es el uso intencional de la fuerza física, amenazas contra uno mismo, otra persona, un grupo o una comunidad que tiene como consecuencia o es muy probable que tenga como consecuencia un traumatismo, daños psicológicos, problemas de desarrollo o la muerte.The following work has the purpose that the students of the diploma course carry out a meticulous revision of the contents of unit 1 to 10 and based on choose one of the stories proposed in the activity which seek the student to perform a process of analysis, reflection deepen on personal, family, collective and community efforts that are mobilized in it to break cycles of violence and injustice. It is to emphasize that these stories draw marks and scenes of violence that have happened in our country. Then, in group consensus, they will choose a single story and design questions that they would ask the protagonist of the chosen case. Finally, with another case proposed in the guide called Pandurí, strategies and actions of psychosocial accompaniment will be shaped so that the victims of the conflict bravely face what happened to them and continue to fight day after day for their dreams. According to the (WHO) Violence is the intentional use of physical force, threats against oneself, another person, a group or a community that has as a consequence or is very likely to result in trauma, psychological damage, development problems or death

Biorecuperación y fitorremediación de suelo impactado por aceite residual automotriz

In soil spill by 75000 ppm of waste motor oil (WMO) a mix of hydrocarbons (HICO) aliphatic, aromatic is relativelyhigh according to Mexican regulation NOM-138-SEMARNAT/SSA1-2012 (NOM-138) which indicate that in soil themaximum limit accepted is 4400 ppm of HICO. WMO is an environmental problem because it´s causes lost soil´sfertility. The objectives of this research were a) biostimulation (BIS) of soil by 75000 ppm of WMO by mineral solution(MISO) and Vicia sativa as green manure (GEMA), b) phytoremediation (PHYTO) with Sorghum bicolor potencies byB. cepacia and P. chrysogenum for reducing WMO at concentration level value below the maximum accepted by theNOM-138. The results showed that BIS with MISO and V. sativa as GEMA reduced WMO from 75000 to 36700 ppm.Then PYTHO by S. bicolor potencies with B. vietnamiensis and P. chrysogenum decreased WMO from 36700 ppm to790 ppm concentration value below to maximum accepted by NOM-138.Those results indicated that enrichment by MISO and GEMA induced WHO partial mineralization by heterotrophicaerobic native microorganisms, then PYTHO by S. bicolor and B. cepacia/P. chrysogenum completed its biorestaurationby decreasing WMO level at below the highest accepted the Mexican environmental regulation NOM-138.En suelo el derrame de 75000 ppm de aceite residual automotriz (ARA) una mezcla de hidrocarburos alifáticos, aromáticos y poli cíclicos, derivado de automóviles, es una concentración relativamente alta acorde con la regulación ambiental en México, relacionada con este tipo de contaminación, denominada NOM-138 SEMARNAT/SS-2003 (NOM-138),la que establece en suelo el límite máximo permitido de 4400 ppm, cualquier concentración superior, causa ademáspérdida de fertilidad. Los objetivos de esta investigación fueron: a) bioestimulación (BIS) de suelo impactado por 75000ppm de ARA con solución mineral (SOMI) y Vicia sativa o abono verde (AVE) y b) Fitorremediación (FITO) medianteSorghum bicolor potenciado con Burkholderia vietnamiensis y Penicillium chrysogenum para decrecer el ARA a valorinferior al máximo aceptado por la NOM-138.Los resultados señalaron que la BIS con SOMI y V. sativa redujeron el ARA de 75000 a 36700 ppm, mientras que laFITO mediante S. bicolor con B. vietnamiensis y P. chrysogenum lo disminuyeron de 36700 a 790 ppm, valor inferior almáximo aceptado por la NOM-138. Lo anterior indica que en suelo la BIS con SOMI y V. sativa o AVE, lo enriquecieron con minerales N (nitrógeno) P (fosforo), principales limitantes nutricionales de la microbiota heterotrófica aerobianativa, para mineralizar parcialmente el ARA, y concluir con la FITO mediante S. bicolor tratado con B. vietnamiensis/P. chrysogenum para su biorecuperación y decrecerlo a valor inferior al máximo aceptado por la NOM-138