Stability periods between financial crises : The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies

The aim of this paper is to identify which factors explain why some countries are more prone to enjoy long durations of stability, while others experience crises in shorter intervals. To this end, we analyze the duration of stability periods between currency, debt, and banking crises from 1980 to 2008. We find that durations of tranquility between currency and debt crises are bimodally distributed, making conventional econometric models unsuitable. Therefore, we introduce an innovative econometric strategy, the Finite Mixture Model. Real and financial variables are found to have high predictive power for the spell of stability between currency crises, while for debt crises, the real interest rate is observed to be the best predictor. The time between the occurrence of systemic financial crises is prolonged through large-scale government interventions and IMF aid programs, while recapitalization turns out to have a negative impact.Financial crises, Finite mixture model, duration, bimodality.

Stability periods between financial crises : The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies

URL des Documents de travail ; http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/bandeau-haut/documents-de-travail/Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2011.64 - ISSN : 1955-611XThe aim of this paper is to identify which factors explain why some countries are more prone to enjoy long durations of stability, while others experience crises in shorter intervals. To this end, we analyze the duration of stability periods between currency, debt, and banking crises from 1980 to 2008. We find that durations of tranquility between currency and debt crises are bimodally distributed, making conventional econometric models unsuitable. Therefore, we introduce an innovative econometric strategy, the Finite Mixture Model. Real and financial variables are found to have high predictive power for the spell of stability between currency crises, while for debt crises, the real interest rate is observed to be the best predictor. The time between the occurrence of systemic financial crises is prolonged through large-scale government interventions and IMF aid programs, while recapitalization turns out to have a negative impact.L'objectif de cet article est d'identifier les facteurs qui expliquent pourquoi certains pays ont tendance à expérimenter des durées de stabilité financière plus longues que d'autres. A cette fin, en considérant la période 1980-2008, nous analysons la durée de tranquilité séparant respectivement les crises de change, d'endettement et bancaires. En partant du constat que les distributions de la durée séparant l'occurrence des crises de change et celle séparant l'occurrence des crises d'endettement sont bimodales, nous estimons un modéle économétrique du type "modèle de mélange gaussien". Les résultats empiriques suggèrent d'une part qu'en ce qui concerne les crises de change, les variables d'économie réelle et les financières augmentent significativement la qualité prédictive de notre modèle ; d'autre part, que le taux d'intérêt réel est le meilleur "prédicteur" de la durée de tranquilité entre les crises d'endettement. Nous trouvons également que l'ampleur du soutien public au secteur bancaire ainsi que l'adoption des programmes du FMI prolongent la durée de stabilité entre les crises bancaires systémiques mais que les mesures de recapitalisation sont de nature à précipiter l'occurrence de nouvelles crises

Church Attendance and Religious change Pooled European dataset (CARPE): a survey harmonization project for the comparative analysis of long-term trends in individual religiosity

Despite the long-lasting interest in religious change, debates on the topic have been heated and are still far from being settled. In order to provide a reliable data source through which to study these dynamics, the CARPE project harmonizes well-known international surveys containing items concerning religiosity (the ESS, Eurobarometer, EVS, ISSP and WVS). This makes it possible to broaden the available observation window, both across countries and over time. Moreover, the opportunities this provides for comparing different survey programmes also enable researchers to analyse the consistency of the results, minimizing the impact of random fluctuations and providing useful information with respect to the degree of confidence which can be placed on the relevant estimates. The main focus of this cumulative approach is the variable regarding church attendance, which has been harmonized in various ways. All in all, the CARPE dataset contains figures of religious practice for 45 countries spanning the period of 1970-2016 and derived from 1665 national surveys. This results in a sample of approximately 1.8 million individual observations. The aim of this contribution is to present the dataset’s composition, the harmonization procedure adopted, the strategy used to combine the single datasets and the reliability tests which have been performed. Finally, some possible applications of the CARPE dataset will be introduced

Enhancing the accuracy of engine calibration through a computer aided calibration algorithm

Abstract This paper addresses a novel Computer Aided Calibration software developed by the authors to overcome a critical issue of the traditional calibration process: improve the calibration accuracy. The algorithm includes some innovative features aimed at error minimization through a complete parametric analysis of a target ECU functions. Therefore, it is possible to assess if further quantities that are not considered as calibration parameters within the current ECU function model actually affect the quantity estimated by the function itself. If so, a more accurate physical model can be implemented within the ECU function to increase the accuracy of the calibration process

Immigrant generation and religiosity: a study of Christian immigrant groups in 33 European countries

Although Christian migrant groups make up a sizeable part of the immigrant population in Europe, little is known about their religiosity. This paper studies patterns of intergenerational change and proposes and tests hypotheses that specify when and why changes across generations are stronger. Using data from the European Social Survey (2002–2018) on 33 European countries, it is found that there is a strong pattern of intergenerational decline in the level of religiosity among Christian migrant groups in Europe. This process of religious decline is by no means universal. Results show that children from two foreign-born parents are much more religious than children from intermarried (foreign-born and native) couples. We also observe that intergenerational decline is much less pronounced in European countries that are more religious. Finally, when Christian migrant groups belong to a religious minority group, this is associated with higher levels of religiosity in both the first and second generation. It is argued that these insights can explain the ‘puzzling’ strong intergenerational religious transmission among Muslim migrant groups in Western European societies

A cyanobacterial LPS antagonist prevents endotoxin shock and blocks sustained TLR4 stimulation required for cytokine expression

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) function as primary sensors that elicit coordinated innate immune defenses through recognition of microbial products and induction of immune and proinflammatory genes. Here we report the identification and biological characterization of a lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-like molecule extracted from the cyanobacterium Oscillatoria Planktothrix FP1 (cyanobacterial product [CyP]) that is not stimulatory per se but acts as a potent and selective antagonist of bacterial LPS. CyP binds to MD-2 and efficiently competes with LPS for binding to the TLR4–MD-2 receptor complex. The addition of CyP together with LPS completely inhibited both MyD88- and TRIF-dependent pathways and suppressed the whole LPS-induced gene transcription program in human dendritic cells (DCs). CyP protected mice from endotoxin shock in spite of a lower capacity to inhibit LPS stimulation of mouse DCs. Interestingly, the delayed addition of CyP to DCs responding to LPS strongly inhibited signaling and cytokine production by immediate down-regulation of inflammatory cytokine mRNAs while not affecting other aspects of DC maturation, such as expression of major histocompatibility complex molecules, costimulatory molecules, and CCR7. Collectively, these results indicate that CyP is a potent competitive inhibitor of LPS in vitro and in vivo and reveal the requirement of sustained TLR4 stimulation for induction of cytokine genes in human DCs

Chronic treatment with fluoxetine up-regulates cellular BDNF mRNA expression in rat dopaminergic regions.

During the last few years several studies have highlighted the possibility that major depression can be characterized by a general reduction in brain plasticity and an increased vulnerability under challenging situations. Such dysfunction may be the consequence of reduced expression and function of proteins important for neuroplasticity such as brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF). On this basis, by using a sensitive non-radioactive in-situ hybridization, we evaluated the effects of a chronic treatment with fluoxetine on BDNF expression within rat dopaminergic regions. In fact, besides the well-established role of the hippocampus, increasing evidence indicates that other brain regions may be involved in the pathophysiology of depression and consequently be relevant for the therapeutic action of antidepressant drugs. Our results indicate that 3 wk of fluoxetine administration up-regulates BDNF mRNA levels selectively within structures belonging to the meso-cortico-limbic pathway. The expression of the neurotrophin is significantly increased in the ventral tegmental area, prefrontal cortex, and shell region of the nucleus accumbens, whereas no changes were detected in the substantia nigra and striatum. Moreover, in agreement with previous studies, fluoxetine increased BDNF mRNA levels in the hippocampus, an effect that was limited to the cell bodies without any change in its dendritic targeting. These data show that chronic treatment with fluoxetine increases BDNF gene expression not only in limbic areas but also in dopaminergic regions, suggesting that such an effect may contribute to improve the function of the dopaminergic system in depressed subjects

Primary Sensory and Motor Cortex Activities During Voluntary and Passive Ankle Mobilization by the SHADE Orthosis

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Robot-assisted upper limb training for patients with multiple sclerosis: an evidence-based review of clinical applications and effectiveness

Upper extremities limitation is a common functional impairment in patients with Multiple Sclerosis (PwMS). Novel technological devices are increasingly used in neurorehabilitation to support motor function improvement and the quantitative assessment of motor performance during training in patients with neurological diseases. In this review, we systematically report the evidence on clinical applications and robotic-assisted arm training (RAT) in functional recovery in PwMS. PubMed/MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) databases were systematically searched from inception to March 2021. The 10-item PEDro scale assessed the study quality for the RCT, and the AMSTAR-2 was used to assess the quality of the systematic review. The 5-item Oxford CEBM scale was used to rate the level of evidence. A total of 10 studies (161 subjects) were included. The selected studies included one systematic review, four RCTs, one randomized crossover, and four case series. The RCTs were scored as high-quality studies, while the systematic review was determined to be of low quality. Shoulder range of motion, handgrip strength, and proximal arm impairment improved after RAT. Manual dexterity, arm function, and use in daily life also ameliorated arm function. The high clinical heterogeneity of treatment programs and the variety of robot devices affects the generalizability of the study results; therefore, we emphasize the need to standardize the intervention type in future studies that evaluate the role of robotic-assisted training in PwMS. Robot-assisted treatment seems safe and useful to increase manual dexterity and the quality of movement execution in PwMS with moderate to severe disability. Additional studies with an adequate sample size and methodological rigour are warranted to drive definite conclusion