40 research outputs found
Memorable experience, tourist-destination identification and destination love
Purpose – This paper is aimed to investigate the impact of memorable destination experience and destination attractiveness on tourist-destination identification and destination love. It also investigates the moderating role of gender.
Design/methodology/approach – Using the cluster sampling method, the study selected cities of a developing country with the most popular destinations. A questionnaire survey was employed to collect data from a sample of foreign and domestic tourists. To test the research model, a covariance-based structural equation modelling approach was adopted.
Findings – According to the results, destination attractiveness and memorable experience had a positive effect on tourist-destination identification. Similarly, tourist-destination identification positively influenced destination love. In addition, destination love impacts the intention to revisit and word-of-mouth. Finally, the results indicate that gender moderates some of these relationships.
Originality/value – Understanding what items can create strong bonds between destination and tourist is of great importance. By providing a validated conceptual model that traces the relationship between memorable experience, destination attractiveness, and tourist-destination identification through cognitive, affective, and evaluative dimensions, this study attempts to answer prior calls for examination from the viewpoint of tourism scholars
Modeling and Analysis of Effective Ways for Improving the Reliability of Second-hand Products Sold with Warranty
Often, customers are uncertain about the performance and durability of the used/second-hand products. The warranties play an important role in reassuring the buyer. Offering the warranty implies that the dealer incurs additional costs to service any claims made by the customers. Reducing warranty costs is an issue of great interest to dealers. One way of improving the reliability and reducing the warranty servicing cost for second-hand items is through actions such as overhaul and upgrade which are carried out by the dealer or a third party. Improving actions allow the dealer to offer better warranty terms and to sell the item at a higher price. This paper deals with two effective approaches (virtual age approach and screening test approach) to decide on the reliability improvement strategies for second-hand products sold under various warranty policies (failure-free, rebate warranty, and a combination of free replacement and lump sum). A numerical example illustrates that from a dealer’s point of view, it is beneficial to carry out an improvement action only if the reduction in the warranty servicing cost is greater than the extra cost incurred due to this improvement action
Hourly Price-Based Demand Response for Optimal Scheduling of Integrated Gas and Power Networks Considering Compressed Air Energy Storage
Gas-fired plants are becoming an optimal and practical choice for power generation in electricity grids due to high efficiency and less emissions. Such plants with fast start-up capability and high ramp rate are flexible in response to stochastic load variations. Meanwhile, gas system constraints affect the flexibility and participation of such units in the energy market. Compressed air energy storage (CAES) as a flexible source with high ramp rate can be an alternative solution to reduce the impact of gas system constraints on the operation cost of a power system. In addition, demand response (DR) programs are expressed as practical approaches to overcome peak-demand challenges. This study introduces a stochastic unit commitment scheme for coordinated operation of gas and power systems with CAES technology as well as application of an hourly price-based DR. The introduced model is performed on a six-bus system with a six-node gas system to verify the satisfactory performance of the model
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background
Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.
Methods
22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.
Findings
Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.
Interpretation
Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic
Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study
Summary
Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally.
Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies
have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of
the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income
countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality.
Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to
hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis,
exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a
minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical
status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary
intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause,
in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status.
We did a complete case analysis.
Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital
diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal
malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome
countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male.
Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3).
Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income
countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups).
Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome
countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries;
p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients
combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11],
p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20
[1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention
(ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety
checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed
(ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of
parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65
[0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality.
Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome,
middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will
be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger
than 5 years by 2030
Radioimmunoscintigraphy of Breast Tumor Xenografts in Mouse Model by 99mTc Direct Radiolabeling of a Monoclonal Antibody PR81
Introduction: The radioimmunoscintigraphy (RIS) has found widespread clinical applications in
tumor diagnosis. Human epithelial mucin, MUC1, is commonly over expressed in
adenocarcinoma including 80% of breast cancers and represents a useful target for RIS. The PR81
is a new murine anti-MUC1 monoclonal antibody that was found to react with the membrane
extracts of several human breast cancerous tissues and the cell surface of some MUC1 positive
cell lines. In this study, a direct method which is very simple, rapid and efficient for the labeling
of this MAb with
99m
Tc, particularly suitable for the development of a ‘kit’, was developed. The
quality control of new radiopharmaceutical and immunoscintigraphy studies in BALB/c mice
bearing breast tumor xenografts were also performed.
Materials and Methods: The Ab reduction was performed with 2-mercaptoethanol (2-ME) at a
molar ratio of 2000:1 (2-ME:MAb) and reduced Ab was labeled with
99m
Tc via methylene
diphosphonate (MDP) as a transchelator. The labeling efficiency was determined by ITLC. The
amount of radiocolloids was measured by cellulose nitrate electrophoresis. The stability of the
labeled product was checked in fresh human serum by gel filtration chromatography (FPLC) over
24 hrs. The integrity of the labeled MAb was checked by the means of SDS-PAGE. Cell-binding
assay was used to test the binding ability of
99m
Tc-PR81 to MCF7 cells. Biodistribution was
studied in normal BALB/c mice at 4 and 24 hrs post-injection. The tumor imaging was performed
in female BALB/c mice with breast tumor xenografts 24 hrs after the new complex injection.
Results: The labeling efficiency was 94.2%±2.3 and radiocolloids were 2.5%±1.7. In vitro
stability was 70%±5.7 in fresh human serum over 24 hrs. There was no significant Ab
fragmentation due to the labeling procedure. Both the labeled and unlabeled PR81 were able to
compete for binding to MCF7 cells. The biodistribution studies in normal BALB/c mice showed
that there was no important accumulation in any organ. The immunoscintigraphy studies
demonstrated definite localization of the preparation at the site of tumors with high sensitivity.
Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that by using the Schwarz method of radiolabeling
MAb PR81, a labeling yield higher than 90% with high stability of the complex in human serum
can be obtained. These findings demonstrated that the new radiopharmaceutical can be considered
as a promising candidate for imaging of human breast cancer