Forecasting Schizophrenia Incidence Frequencies Using Time Series Approach

Introduction: Understanding the prevalence of schizophrenia has important implications for both health service planning and risk factor epidemiology. The aims of this study are to systematically identify and collate studies describing the prevalence of schizophrenia, to summarize the findings of these studies, and to explore selected factors that may influence prevalence estimates.Methods: This historical cohort study was done on schizophrenia patients in Farshchian psychiatric hospital from April 2008 to April 2016. To analyze the data, the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing (HWES) method was applied. All the analyses were done by R.3.2.3. Software using the packages “forecast” and “tseries”. The statistical significant level was assumed as 0.05.Results: Our investigation show that a constant frequency of Schizophrenia incidence happens every month from August 2008 to February 2015 while a considerable increase occurs in March 2015. The high frequency of Schizophrenia incidence remains constant to the end of 2015 and a decrease is shown in 2016. Also, data demonstrate the development of Schizophrenia in the next 24 months with 95% confidence interval.Conclusion: Our study showed that a significant increase happens in the frequency of Schizophrenia from 2016. Although the development is not constant and the same for all months, the amount of increase is considerably high comparing to before 2016.

Evaluation of antitumor activity of a TGF-beta receptor I inhibitor (SD-208) on human colon adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) pathway is involved in primary tumor progression and in promoting metastasis in a considerable proportion of human cancers such as colorectal cancer (CRC). Therefore, blockage of TGF-β pathway signaling via an inhibitor could be a valuable tool in CRC treatment. METHODS: To evaluate the efficacy of systemic targeting of the TGF-β pathway for therapeutic effects on CRC, we investigated the effects of a TGβRI (TGF-β receptor 1) or TβRI kinase inhibitor, SD-208, on SW-48, colon adenocarcinoma cells. In this work, in vitro cell proliferation was studied by methyl thiazolyl tetrazolium (MTT) and bromo-2'-deoxyuridine (BrdU) assays. Also, the histopathological and immunohistochemical evaluations were conducted by hematoxylin and eosin, and Ki-67 and CD34 markers were stained, respectively. RESULTS: Our results showed no significant reduction in cell proliferation and vessel formation (170 ± 70 and 165 ± 70, P > 0.05) in treated SW-48 cells with SD-208 compared to controls. CONCLUSION: Our data suggested that SD-208 could not significantly reduce tumor growth and angiogenesis in human colorectal cancer model at least using SW-48 cells

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Effect of Vitamin E and Selenium Supplement on Paraoxonase-1 Activity, Oxidized Low Density Lipoprotein and Antioxidant Defense in Diabetic Rats

Introduction: The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of vitamin E and selenium supplementation on serum paraoxonase (PON1) activity, lipid peroxidation and antioxidant defense in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats. Methods: Thirty two female Sprague Dawley rats were divided into 3 groups: the control group (n=8) received a standard diet; streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetic rats (n=12), received corn oil and physiological solution; and vitamin E and selenium supplemented diabetic rats (n=12) were treated with oral administration of vitamin E (300 mg/kg) and sodium selenite (0.5 mg/kg) once a day for 4 weeks. Results: Significantly lower total antioxidant status (TAS), PON1and erythrocyte SOD activities and a higher fasting plasma glucose level were observed in the diabetic rats compared to the control. A significant increase in SOD and GPX activities in vitamin E and selenium supplemented diabetic group was observed after 5 weeks of the experiment. Compared to the normal rats, malondialdehyde (MDA) and oxidized LDL (Ox-LDL) levels were higher in the diabetic animals; however, these values reduced significantly following vitamin E and selenium supplementation. Conclusion: Vitamin E and selenium supplementation in diabetic rats has hypolipidemic, hypoglycemic and antioxidative effects and may slow down the progression of diabetic complications through its protective effect on PON1 activity and lipoproteins oxidation

Effect of probiotic administration in inflammatory responses of thermal burns

Objectives & Introduction It is possible to damage the natural intestinal barrier following severe burn injuries. Oral probiotics' positive effects on the innate immune system or intestinal epithelial layer are proven. This research aimed to evaluate the role of probiotics on plasma inflammatory changes and bacterial colonization in the burned wound after high-grade thermal trauma. Methods This double-blinded randomized controlled trial was conducted on 80 patients with a total body surface area of 20–70%. Patients were allocated to two groups based on four blocks randomization model. Intervention and control groups received daily LactoCare and placebo capsules for 14 consecutive days. Obtaining demographic data, burn and gastrointestinal symptoms were registered by filling out a questionnaire. Additionally, measuring plasma levels of highly sensitive C-reactive protein(hs-CRP), IgA, absolute neutrophilic, and lymphocytic count were performed cumulatively four times prior to and after the intervention. Results Considering eligible data, following the study period analysis showed significant mitigation of inflammatory status in probiotic receivers. The hs-CRP reduced following probiotic (21.38 ± 44.45) consumption compared with placebo (−36.36 ± 79.03) intake ( p < 0.001). Also, the plasma level of IgA significantly decreased in the intervention group (0.88 ± 0.65) than in the control group (0.79 ± 0.18) ( p < 0.001). Wound cultures showed no significant difference between groups, although the incidence rate of bacterial colonization was slightly lower after using probiotics ( p = 0.159). Regarding wound healing, data illustrated that probiotics could accelerate wound healing after 14 days of regular consumption ( p < 0.001). Conclusion Probiotics have advantages for the mitigation of inflammation and wound healing following severe thermal burn injuries. Trends toward Improvement Immune system by increasing IgA level and lymphocytic count and possible Reduction of wound area with exogenous probiotic administration in patients with burns suggest that further investigation in larger sample size is necessary to corroborate our initial, promising findings

Introducing a new auto edge detection technique capable of revealing cervical root resorption in CBCT scans with pronounced metallic artifacts

Abstract Cervical resorption is a serious threat to the longevity of the teeth. In this study, the Canny edge-detection algorithm was applied on CBCT images to compare the accuracy of original and Canny views for diagnosing cervical resorption in endodontically treated teeth. Intracanal metallic posts were inserted in 60 extracted teeth being randomly divided into three groups: control, 0.5 mm, and 1 mm cervical resorption. CBCT scans of the teeth were presented to three observers in both original and Canny formats with the accuracy being determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The DeLong test was used for paired comparisons with the significance level set at 0.05. The highest accuracy belonged to Canny images in 1 mm resorption, followed by Canny images in 0.5 mm resorption, original images in 1 mm resorption, and original images in 0.5 mm resorption, respectively. The Canny images were significantly more accurate in the diagnosis of 0.5 mm (p < 0.001) and 1 mm (p = 0.009) resorption. Application of the Canny edge-detection algorithm could be suggested as a new technique for facilitating the diagnosis of cervical resorption in teeth that are negatively affected by metallic artifacts