Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence

Evidence from social psychology suggests that agents process information about their own ability in a biased manner. This evidence has motivated exciting research in behavioral economics, but has also garnered critics who point out that it is potentially consistent with standard Bayesian updating. We implement a direct experimental test. We study a large sample of 656 undergraduate students, tracking the evolution of their beliefs about their own relative performance on an IQ test as they receive noisy feedback from a known data-generating process. Our design lets us repeatedly measure the complete relevant belief distribution incentive-compatibly. We find that subjects (1) place approximately full weight on their priors, but (2) are asymmetric, over-weighting positive feedback relative to negative, and (3) conservative, updating too little in response to both positive and negative signals. These biases are substantially less pronounced in a placebo experiment where ego is not at stake. We also find that (4) a substantial portion of subjects are averse to receiving information about their ability, and that (5) less confident subjects are causally more likely to be averse. We unify these phenomena by showing that they all arise naturally in a simple model of optimally biased Bayesian information processing.

Polyhedral Cosmic Strings

Quantum field theory is discussed in M\"obius corner kaleidoscopes using the method of images. The vacuum average of the stress-energy tensor of a free field is derived and is shown to be a simple sum of straight cosmic string expressions, the strings running along the edges of the corners. It does not seem possible to set up a spin-half theory easily.Comment: 15 pages, 4 text figures not include

Pulsed flows at the high-altitude cusp poleward boundary, and associated ionospheric convection and particle signatures, during a cluster - FAST - SuperDARN - sondrestrom conjunction under a southwest

Particle and magnetic field observations during a magnetic conjunction Cluster 1-FAST-Søndrestrøm within the field of view of SuperDARN radars on 21 January 2001 allow us to draw a detailed, comprehensive and self-consistent picture at three heights of signatures associated with transient reconnection under a steady south-westerly IMF (clock angle ≈130◦). Cluster 1 was outbound through the high altitude (∼12RE ) exterior northern cusp tailward of the bifurcation line (geomagnetic Bx>0) when a solar wind dynamic pressure release shifted the spacecraft into a boundary layer downstream of the cusp. The centerpiece of the investigation is a series of flow bursts observed there by the spacecraft, which were accompanied by strong field pertur- bations and tailward flow deflections. Analysis shows these to be Alfven waves. We interpret these flow events as being due to a sequence of reconnected flux tubes, with field-aligned currents in the associated Alfven waves carrying stresses to the underlying ionosphere, a view strengthened by the other observations. At the magnetic footprint of the region of Cluster flow bursts, FAST observed an ion energy- latitude disperison of the stepped cusp type, with individual cusp ion steps corresponding to individual flow bursts. Simultaneously, the SuperDARN Stokkseyri radar observed very strong poleward-moving radar auroral forms (PMRAFs) which were conjugate to the flow bursts at Cluster. FAST was traversing these PMRAFs when it observed the cusp ion steps. The Søndrestrøm radar observed pulsed ionospheric flows (PIFs) just poleward of the convection reversal boundary. As at Cluster, the flow was eastward (tailward), implying a coherent eastward (tailward) motion of the hypothesized open flux tubes. The joint Søndrestrøm and FAST observations indicate that the open/closed field line boundary was equatorward of the convection reversal boundary by ∼2 deg. The unprecedented accuracy of the conjunction argues strongly for the validity of the interpretation of the various signatures as resulting from transient reconnection. In particular, the cusp ion steps arise on this pass from this origin, in consonance with the original pulsating cusp model. The observations point to the need of extending current ideas on the response of the ionosphere to transient reconnection. Specifically, it argues in favor of re-establishing the high-latitude boundary layer downstream of the cusp as an active site of momentum transfer

Fluorescence resonance energy transfer between organic dyes adsorbed onto nano-clay and Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) films

In this communication we investigate two dyes N,N' -dioctadecyl thiacyanine perchlorate (NK) and octadecyl rhodamine B chloride (RhB) in Langmuir and Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) films with or with out a synthetic clay laponite. Observed changes in isotherms of RhB in absence and presence of nano-clay platelets indicate the incorporation of clay platelets onto RhB-clay hybrid films. AFM image confirms the incorporation of clay in hybrid films. FRET was observed in clay dispersion and LB films with and without clay. Efficiency of energy transfer was maximum in LB films with clay.Comment: 15 pages 5 figures, 1 tabl

What Do We Expect from Our Friends?

Published in Journal of the European Economic Association, 2010, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2010.tb00497.x</p

Clinical significance of VEGF-A, -C and -D expression in esophageal malignancies

Vascular endothelial growth factors ( VEGF)- A, - C and - D are members of the proangiogenic VEGF family of glycoproteins. VEGF-A is known to be the most important angiogenic factor under physiological and pathological conditions, while VEGF-C and VEGF-D are implicated in the development and sprouting of lymphatic vessels, so called lymphangiogenesis. Local tumor progression, lymph node metastases and hematogenous tumor spread are important prognostic factors for esophageal carcinoma ( EC), one of the most lethal malignancies throughout the world. We found solid evidence in the literature that VEGF expression contributes to tumor angiogenesis, tumor progression and lymph node metastasis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma ( SCC), and many authors could show a prognostic value for VEGF-assessment. In adenocarcinoma (AC) of the esophagus angiogenic properties are acquired in early stages, particularly in precancerous lesions like Barrett's dysplasia. However, VEGF expression fails to give prognostic information in AC of the esophagus. VEGF-C and VEGF-D were detected in SCC and dysplastic lesions, but not in normal mucosa of the esophagus. VEGF-C expression might be associated with lymphatic tumor invasion, lymph node metastases and advanced disease in esophageal SCC and AC. Therapeutic interference with VEGF signaling may prove to be a promising way of anti-angiogenic co-treatment in esophageal carcinoma. However, concrete clinical data are still pending

Scaling of the Conductivity with Temperature and Uniaxial Stress in Si:B at the Metal-Insulator Transition

Using uniaxial stress to tune Si:B through the metal-insulator transition we find the conductivity at low temperatures shows an excellent fit to scaling with temperature and stress on both sides of the transition. The scaling functions yield the conductivity in the metallic and insulating phases, and allow a reliable determination of the temperature dependence in the critical regions on both sides of the transition

Acceleration of Solar Wind Ions by Nearby Interplanetary Shocks: Comparison of Monte Carlo Simulations with Ulysses Observations

The most stringent test of theoretical models of the first-order Fermi mechanism at collisionless astrophysical shocks is a comparison of the theoretical predictions with observational data on particle populations. Such comparisons have yielded good agreement between observations at the quasi-parallel portion of the Earth's bow shock and three theoretical approaches, including Monte Carlo kinetic simulations. This paper extends such model testing to the realm of oblique interplanetary shocks: here observations of proton and alpha particle distributions made by the SWICS ion mass spectrometer on Ulysses at nearby interplanetary shocks are compared with test particle Monte Carlo simulation predictions of accelerated populations. The plasma parameters used in the simulation are obtained from measurements of solar wind particles and the magnetic field upstream of individual shocks. Good agreement between downstream spectral measurements and the simulation predictions are obtained for two shocks by allowing the the ratio of the mean-free scattering length to the ionic gyroradius, to vary in an optimization of the fit to the data. Generally small values of this ratio are obtained, corresponding to the case of strong scattering. The acceleration process appears to be roughly independent of the mass or charge of the species.Comment: 26 pages, 6 figures, AASTeX format, to appear in the Astrophysical Journal, February 20, 199