Comparison of ocean deoxygenation between CMIP models and an observational dataset in the North Pacific from 1958 to 2005

This study investigated the relationship between the observed and simulated dissolved oxygen (O2) inventory changes in the North Pacific by analyzing an observational dataset and the outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) between 1958 and 2005. A total of 204 ensembles from 20 models were analyzed. Many of the models in the North Pacific subarctic region have higher climatological O2 concentrations than observed at deeper water depths. Therefore, the negative trend of O2 inventories tends to be larger, and in fact, several model ensemble members have a larger negative trend in O2 inventories than observed. The variability among model ensemble members is more influenced by the uncertainty due to internal variability than by the uncertainty resulting from model dependency. An inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis revealed that the different simulated magnitudes of the negative O2 trend is closely associated with the first EOF mode, and ensemble members with strong negative trends are characterized by large oxygen reduction in the subarctic North Pacific, especially around the boundaries between the North Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Okhotsk as well as the Bering Seas. The modeled strong O2 decrease in the subarctic North Pacific is consistent with the spatial pattern of the observed O2 trend. Further analysis of climate models indicated that the O2 decrease in the subarctic region was primarily caused by physical factors. This conclusion is supported by the significantly high correlation is present between the potential temperature and O2 inventory trend in the subarctic region, whereas an insignificant correlation coefficient is present between dissolved organic carbon and the O2 inventory trend. However, the observations have a larger ratio of O2 inventory trend to temperature trend than any of the ensembles, and thus the relationship between O2 and temperature change in the subarctic North Pacific seen in the CMIP5/6 simulations is not exact

Western Boundary Sea Level : A Theory, Rule of Thumb, and Application to Climate Models

To better understand coastal sea level variability and changes, a theory that predicts sea levels along a curved western boundary using interior ocean sea level information is proposed. The western boundary sea level at a particular latitude is expressed by the sum of contributions from interior sea levels propagating onto the western boundary by long Rossby waves between that latitude and a higher latitude, and from the western boundary sea level at the higher latitude. This theory is examined by using a linear, reduced gravity model. A comparison between the theory and the model shows good agreement. A simple scaling law (or rule of thumb) derived from the theory provides a measure of the higher-latitude sea level and ocean interior sea level contributions. The theory is then tested using data from 34 climate models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for dynamic sea level changes between the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The theory captures the nearly uniform sea level rise from the Labrador Sea to New York City (NYC), with a reduction in the increase of sea level farther south toward the equator, qualitatively consistent with the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, even though the theory underestimates the equatorward reduction rate. Along the South American east coast, the theory successfully reproduced the spatial pattern of the sea level change. The theory suggests a strong link between a sea level rise hot spot along the northeastern coast of North America and the sea level increase in the Labrador Sea, consistent with the result that rates of NYC sea level rise are highly correlated to those in the Labrador Sea in CMIP5 models

Atmospheric Response to the Japan Sea and the East China Sea in an AGCM

Atmospheric responses to the Japan Sea and the East China Sea are investigated using the AGCM for the Earth Simulator (AFES) with T239L48 resolution. The control run (CNTL) is integrated with NOAA 1/4 degree daily OISST data for 10 years. Two sensitivity experiments are conducted; one is with the landfilled Japan Sea (NoJS), the other is with the landfilled East China Sea (NoECS). These marginal seas play as heat sources in cold season and cold sources in warm season for atmosphere. As a result, precipitation in CNTL is larger in cold season and smaller in warm season over the marginal seas than that in NoJS and NoECS. The thermal effects are also reflected in sea-level pressure (SLP). In warm season, SLP in CNTL is higher than NoJS and NoECS over the seas respectively, while SLP is lower in cold season. The SLP anomalies modify the monsoon circulation. The stronger southerly (northerly) winds flow into the marginal seas in warm (cold) season, leading larger precipitation over the eastern Asian coast and the Japan Islands in CNTL than the NoJS and NoECS.Poster presented at Ocean Sciences Meeting 2014, the Oceanography Society, ASLO, AGU, Honolulul, Hawaii, Feb. 23-28, 201

North Pacific climate and ecosystem predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales

The present Research Topic aims to collect studies on all aspects contributing to marine ecosystem predictability and prediction, including observational and numerical studies, with a focus on the North Pacific Ocean north of 30&deg;N. The scope of this Research Topic includes studies of climate predictability and climate-marine ecosystem relationships as the basis of marine ecosystem predictability. This Research Topic is organized by the Working Group on &ldquo;Climate and Ecosystem Predictability&rdquo;, a joint working group between the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) and Climate and Oceans, Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). PICES is an intergovernmental organization for marine science over the North Pacific, that includes the countries along the North Pacific rim, i.e., the United States of America, Japan, People's Republic of China, Canada, Republic of Korea, and the Russian Federation. CLIVAR is one of six global core projects of the World Climate Research Programme. These international science organizations and projects have played important roles in the ocean and climate sciences. This working group is the first joint working group between PICES and CLIVAR, demonstrating the increasing need for collaboration between physical ocean/climate studies, the main area of CLIVAR, and marine biological studies, the major focus of PICES. &nbsp;</p

Transient and local weakening of surface winds observed above the Kuroshio front in the winter East China Sea

To confirm whether surface winds strengthen above warm waters around oceanic fronts using in situ data, a field measurement was conducted using both expendable bathythermographs and Global Positioning System sondes released concurrently across the Kuroshio front in the East China Sea in December 2010. In contrast to previous studies mainly based on satellite observations, the finding of the present field survey is the local weakening of surface winds at the northern flank of the Kuroshio front. From the above field observation in conjunction with a regional numerical model experiment, it is suggested that the northwesterly winds crossing the Kuroshio front from the cooler side first weaken at the northern flank of the front because of the onset of upward transfer of the "nonslip" condition at the sea surface. Thereafter, as the atmospheric mixed layer with warm and humid air mass develops gradually downwind over the Kuroshio region, the surface winds are gradually accelerated by the momentum mixing with strong winds aloft. The surface winds remain strong over the cool East China Sea shelf, and it is thus considered that the surface winds only weaken at the northern flank of the Kuroshio front. However, numerical modeling indicates that this local weakening of the surface winds occurs as a transient state with a short duration and such a structure has thus rarely been detected in the long-term averaged wind fields observed by satellites. Key Points An XBT/GPS sonde observation was conducted across the Kuroshio front Local weakening of surface winds was found just above the Kuroshio front The weakening occurs at the onset of cross-frontal winds transientl

Sea Level and the role of coastal trapped waves in mediating the influence of the open ocean on the coast

The fact that ocean currents must flow parallel to the coast leads to the dynamics of coastal sea level being quite different from the dynamics in the open ocean. The coastal influence of open-ocean dynamics (dynamics associated with forcing which occurs in deep water, beyond the continental slope) therefore involves a hand-over between the predominantly geostrophic dynamics of the interior ocean and the ageostrophic dynamics which must occur at the coast. An understanding of how this hand-over occurs can be obtained by considering the combined role of coastal trapped waves and bottom friction. We here review understanding of coastal trapped waves, which propagate cyclonically around ocean basins along the continental shelf and slope, at speeds which are fast compared to those of baroclinic planetary waves and currents in the open ocean (excluding the large-scale barotropic mode). We show that this results in coastal sea-level signals on western boundaries which, compared to the nearby open-ocean signals, are spatially smoothed, reduced in amplitude, and displaced along the coast in the direction of propagation of coastal trapped waves. The open-ocean influence on eastern boundaries is limited to signals propagating polewards from the equatorial waveguide (although a large-scale diffusive influence may also play a role). This body of work is based on linearised equations, but we also discuss the nonlinear case. We suggest that a proper consideration of nonlinear terms may be very important on western boundaries, as the competition between advection by western boundary currents and a counter-propagating influence of coastal trapped waves has the potential to lead to sharp gradients in coastal sea level where the two effects come into balance

Decadal variability of the upper ocean heat content in the East/Japan Sea and its possible relationship to northwestern Pacific variability

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 117 (2012): C02017, doi:10.1029/2011JC007369.The upper ocean heat content variability in the East/Japan Sea was investigated using a 40 year temperature and salinity data set from 1968 to 2007. Decadal variability was identified as the dominant mode of variability in the upper ocean (0–300 m) aside from the seasonal cycle. The decadal variability is strong to the west of northern Honshu, west of the Tsugaru Strait, and west of southern Hokkaido. Temperature anomalies at 50–125 m exhibit a large contribution to the decadal variability, particularly in the eastern part of the East/Japan Sea. The vertical structure of regressed temperature anomalies and the spatial patterns of regressed 10°C isotherms in the East/Japan Sea suggest that the decadal variability is related to upper ocean circulation in the East/Japan Sea. The decadal variability also exhibits an increasing trend, which indicates that the regions showing large decadal variations experienced warming on decadal time scales. Further analysis shows that the decadal variability in the East/Japan Sea is not locally isolated but is related to variability in the northwestern Pacific.This work was supported by grants from the Ministry of Land, Transport, and Maritime Affairs, Korea (Ocean Climate Variability Program and EAST-I Project).2012-08-0

Insights from earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed

Towards comprehensive observing and modeling systems for monitoring and predicting regional to coastal sea level

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes. We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting short-term processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change.RP was funded by NASA grant NNH16CT00C. CD was supported by the Australian Research Council (FT130101532 and DP 160103130), the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) Working Group 148, funded by national SCOR committees and a grant to SCOR from the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant OCE-1546580), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO/International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange (IOC/IODE) IQuOD Steering Group. SJ was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council under Grant Agreement No. NE/P01517/1 and by the EPSRC NEWTON Fund Sustainable Deltas Programme, Grant Number EP/R024537/1. RvdW received funding from NWO, Grant 866.13.001. WH was supported by NASA (NNX17AI63G and NNX17AH25G). CL was supported by NASA Grant NNH16CT01C. This work is a contribution to the PIRATE project funded by CNES (to TP). PT was supported by the NOAA Research Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program through its sponsorship of UHSLC (NA16NMF4320058). JS was supported by EU contract 730030 (call H2020-EO-2016, “CEASELESS”). JW was supported by EU Horizon 2020 Grant 633211, Atlantos

Updated Assessments of the 1998/99 Climate Change over the North Pacific

The anomalous climate conditions in the atmosphere and ocean over the North Pacific starting in 1998/99 are revisited using the updated data in the last five decade. The anomalous sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric circulations returned to the normal condition in the middle of the 2002. The sea-level displacement anomalies propagated as Rossby waves from the central North Pacific to Japan. It is suggested that the large part of the 1998/99 climate change can be understood as the quasi-decadal fluctuation of the East Pacific pattern and oceanic responses to it, and hence may be qualitatively different from the major climatic regime shifts in the 20th century.International Symposium on "Dawn of a New Natural History - Integration of Geoscience and Biodiversity Studies". 5-6 March 2004. Sapporo, Japan