Temporal variation in the genetic composition of an endangered marsupial reflects reintroduction history

The loss of genetic variation and genetic divergence from source populations are common problems for reintroductions that use captive animals or a small number of founders to establish a new population. This study evaluated the genetic changes occurring in a captive and a reintroduced population of the dibbler (Parantechinus apicalis) that were established from multiple source populations over a twelve-year period, using 21 microsatellite loci. While the levels of genetic variation within the captive and reintroduced populations were relatively stable, and did not differ significantly from the source populations, their effective population size reduced 10–16-fold over the duration of this study. Evidence of some loss of genetic variation in the reintroduced population coincided with genetic bottlenecks that occurred after the population had become established. Detectable changes in the genetic composition of both captive and reintroduced populations were associated with the origins of the individuals introduced to the population. We show that interbreeding between individuals from different source populations lowered the genetic relatedness among the offspring, but this was short-lived. Our study highlights the importance of sourcing founders from multiple locations in conservation breeding programs to avoid inbreeding and maximize allelic diversity. The manipulation of genetic composition in a captive or reintroduced population is possible with careful management of the origins and timings of founder releases

Forest type influences population densities of nocturnal lemurs in Manompana, Northeastern Madagascar

Forest loss, fragmentation, and anthropization threaten the survival of forest species all over the world. Shifting agriculture is one of these threatening processes in Madagascar. However, when its cycle is halted and the land is left to regenerate, the resulting growth of secondary forest may provide a viable habitat for folivorous and omnivorous lemur species. We aimed to identify the response of nocturnal lemurs to different successional stages of regenerating secondary, degraded mature, and mature forest across a mosaic-type landscape. We surveyed four nocturnal lemur species (Avahi laniger, Microcebus cf. simmonsi, Allocebus trichotis, and Daubentonia madagascariensis) in four forest types of varying habitat disturbance in northeastern Madagascar. We estimated densities in mature and regenerating secondary forest for the eastern woolly lemur (Avahi laniger) and mouse lemur (Microcebus cf. simmonsi), two sympatric species with folivorous and omnivorous diets respectively. We did not estimate densities of Allocebus trichotis and Daubentonia madagascariensis owing to small sample size; however, we observed both species exclusively in mature forest. We found higher population densities of A. laniger and M. cf. simmonsi in secondary than in mature forest, showing the potential of regenerating secondary forest for lemur conservation. Several environmental factors influenced the detectability of the two lemur species. While observer and habitat type influenced detection of the eastern woolly lemur, canopy height and vine density influenced detection of mouse lemurs. Understanding how different species with different diets interact with anthropogenically impacted habitat will aid future management decisions for the conservation of primate species

Mixing genetically and morphologically distinct populations in translocations: Asymmetrical introgression in a newly established population of the boodie (Bettongia lesueur)

The use of multiple source populations provides a way to maximise genetic variation and reduce the impacts of inbreeding depression in newly established translocated populations. However, there is a risk that individuals from different source populations will not interbreed, leading to population structure and smaller effective population sizes than expected. Here, we investigate the genetic consequences of mixing two isolated, morphologically distinct island populations of boodies (Bettongia lesueur) in a translocation to mainland Australia over three generations. Using 18 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial D-loop region, we monitored the released animals and their offspring between 2010 and 2013. Despite high levels of divergence between the two source populations (FST = 0.42 and ϕST = 0.72), there was clear evidence of interbreeding between animals from different populations. However, interbreeding was non-random, with a significant bias towards crosses between the genetically smaller-sized Barrow Island males and the larger-sized Dorre Island females. This pattern of introgression was opposite to the expectation that male–male competition or female mate choice would favour larger males. This study shows how mixing diverged populations can bolster genetic variation in newly established mammal populations, but the ultimate outcome can be difficult to predict, highlighting the need for continued genetic monitoring to assess the long-term impacts of admixture

The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics

Ebola emerged in West Africa around December 2013 and swept through Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, giving rise to 27,748 confirmed, probable and suspected cases reported by 29 July 2015. Case diagnoses during the epidemic have relied on polymerase chain reaction-based tests. Owing to limited laboratory capacity and local transport infrastructure, the delays from sample collection to test results being available have often been 2 days or more. Point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests offer the potential to substantially reduce these delays. We review Ebola rapid diagnostic tests approved by the World Health Organization and those currently in development. Such rapid diagnostic tests could allow early triaging of patients, thereby reducing the potential for nosocomial transmission. In addition, despite the lower test accuracy, rapid diagnostic test-based diagnosis may be beneficial in some contexts because of the reduced time spent by uninfected individuals in health-care settings where they may be at increased risk of infection; this also frees up hospital beds. We use mathematical modelling to explore the potential benefits of diagnostic testing strategies involving rapid diagnostic tests alone and in combination with polymerase chain reaction testing. Our analysis indicates that the use of rapid diagnostic tests with sensitivity and specificity comparable with those currently under development always enhances control, whether evaluated at a health-care-unit or population level. If such tests had been available throughout the recent epidemic, we estimate, for Sierra Leone, that their use in combination with confirmatory polymerase chain-reaction testing might have reduced the scale of the epidemic by over a third

The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks

The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city); population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods). Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible

The impact of the initial COVID-19 outbreak on young adults’ mental health: a longitudinal study of risk and resilience factors

Few studies assessing the effects of COVID-19 on mental health include prospective markers of risk and resilience necessary to understand and mitigate the combined impacts of the pandemic, lockdowns, and other societal responses. This population-based study of young adults includes individuals from the Neuroscience in Psychiatry Network (n = 2403) recruited from English primary care services and schools in 2012–2013 when aged 14–24. Participants were followed up three times thereafter, most recently during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 outbreak when they were aged between 19 and 34. Repeated measures of psychological distress (K6) and mental wellbeing (SWEMWBS) were supplemented at the latest assessment by clinical measures of depression (PHQ-9) and anxiety (GAD-7). A total of 1000 participants, 42% of the original cohort, returned to take part in the COVID-19 follow-up; 737 completed all four assessments [mean age (SD), 25.6 (3.2) years; 65.4% female; 79.1% White]. Our findings show that the pandemic led to pronounced deviations from existing mental health-related trajectories compared to expected levels over approximately seven years. About three-in-ten young adults reported clinically significant depression (28.8%) or anxiety (27.6%) under current NHS guidelines; two-in-ten met clinical cut-offs for both. About 9% reported levels of psychological distress likely to be associated with serious functional impairments that substantially interfere with major life activities; an increase by 3% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Deviations from personal trajectories were not necessarily restricted to conventional risk factors; however, individuals with pre-existing health conditions suffered disproportionately during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Resilience factors known to support mental health, particularly in response to adverse events, were at best mildly protective of individual psychological responses to the pandemic. Our findings underline the importance of monitoring the long-term effects of the ongoing pandemic on young adults’ mental health, an age group at particular risk for the emergence of psychopathologies. Our findings further suggest that maintaining access to mental health care services during future waves, or potential new pandemics, is particularly crucial for those with pre-existing health conditions. Even though resilience factors known to support mental health were only mildly protective during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, it remains to be seen whether these factors facilitate mental health in the long term

International genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new primary biliary cirrhosis risk loci and targetable pathogenic pathways.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707