Comparison of software models for energy savings from cool roofs

A web-based Roof Savings Calculator (RSC) has been deployed for the United States Department of Energy as an industry-consensus tool to help building owners, manufacturers, distributors, contractors and researchers easily run complex roof and attic simulations. RSC simulates multiple roof and attic technologies for side-by-side comparison including reflective roofs, different roof slopes, above sheathing ventilation, radiant barriers, low-emittance roof surfaces, duct location, duct leakage rates, multiple substrate types, and insulation levels. Annual simulations of hour-by-hour, whole-building performance are used to provide estimated annual energy and cost savings from reduced HVAC use. While RSC reported similar cooling savings to other simulation engines, heating penalty varied significantly. RSC results show reduced cool roofing cost-effectiveness, thus mitigating expected economic incentives for this countermeasure to the urban heat island effect. This paper consolidates comparison of RSC's projected energy savings to other simulation engines including DOE-2.1E, AtticSim, Micropas, and EnergyPlus. Also included are comparisons to previous simulation-based studies, analysis of RSC cooling savings and heating penalties, the role of radiative heat exchange in an attic assembly, and changes made for increased accuracy of the duct model. Radiant heat transfer and duct interaction not previously modeled is considered a major contributor to heating penalties

A controlled trial of natalizumab for relapsing multiple sclerosis.

Background: In patients with multiple sclerosis, inflammatory brain lesions appear to arise from autoimmune responses involving activated lymphocytes and monocytes. The glycoprotein (alpha)(sub 4) integrin is expressed on the surface of these cells and plays a critical part in their adhesion to the vascular endothelium and migration into the parenchyma. Natalizumab is an (alpha)(sub 4) integrin antagonist that reduced the development of brain lesions in experimental models and in a preliminary study of patients with multiple sclerosis.Methods: In a randomized, double-blind trial, we randomly assigned a total of 213 patients with relapsing-remitting or relapsing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis to receive 3 mg of intravenous natalizumab per kilogram of body weight (68 patients), 6 mg per kilogram (74 patients), or placebo (71 patients) every 28 days for 6 months. The primary end point was the number of new brain lesions on monthly gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging during the six-month treatment period. Clinical outcomes included relapses and self-reported well-being.Results: There were marked reductions in the mean number of new lesions in both natalizumab groups: 9.6 per patient in the placebo group, as compared with 0.7 in the group given 3 mg of natalizumab per kilogram (P<0.001) and 1.1 in the group given 6 mg of natalizumab per kilogram (P<0.001). Twenty-seven patients in the placebo group had relapses, as compared with 13 in the group given 3 mg of natalizumab per kilogram (P=0.02) and 14 in the group given 6 mg of natalizumab per kilogram (P=0.02). The placebo group reported a slight worsening in well-being (a mean decrease of 1.38 mm on a 100-mm visual-analogue scale), whereas the natalizumab groups reported an improvement (mean increase of 9.49 mm in the group given 3 mg of natalizumab per kilogram and 6.21 mm in the group given 6 mg of natalizumab per kilogram).Conclusions: In a placebo-controlled trial, treatment with natalizumab led to fewer inflammatory brain lesions and fewer relapses over a six-month period in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis

Extinction in Star-Forming Disk Galaxies from Inclination-Dependent Composite Spectra

Extinction in galaxies affects their observed properties. In scenarios describing the distribution of dust and stars in individual disk galaxies, the amplitude of the extinction can be modulated by the inclination of the galaxies. In this work we investigate the inclination dependency in composite spectra of star-forming disk galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 5. In a volume-limited sample within a redshift range 0.065-0.075 and a r-band Petrosian absolute magnitude range -19.5 to -22 which exhibits a flat distribution of inclination, the inclined relative to face-on extinction in the stellar continuum is found empirically to increase with inclination in the g, r, and i bands. Within the central 0.5 intrinsic half-light radius of the galaxies, the g-band relative extinction in the stellar continuum for the highly-inclined objects (axis ratio b/a = 0.1) is 1.2 mag, agreeing with previous studies. The extinction curve of the disk galaxies is given in the restframe wavelengths 3700-8000 angstrom, identified with major optical emission and absorption lines in diagnostics. The Balmer decrement remains constant with inclination, suggesting a different kind of dust configuration and/or reddening mechanism in the HII region from that in the stellar continuum. One factor is shown to be the presence of spatially non-uniform interstellar extinction, presumably caused by clumped dust in the vicinity of the HII region.Comment: To appear in the Astrophysical Journa

Herd-level risk factors associated with Leptospira Hardjo seroprevalence in Beef/Suckler herds in the Republic of Ireland

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of the present study was to investigate risk factors for herd seropositivity to <it>Leptospira </it>Hardjo in Irish suckler herds. Herds were considered eligible for the study if they were unvaccinated and contained ≥ 9 breeding animals of beef breed which were ≥ 12 months of age. The country was divided into six regions using county boundaries. Herd and individual animal prevalence data were available from the results of a concurrent seroprevalence study. Herds were classified as either "Free from Infection" or "Infected" based on a minimum expected 40% within-herd prevalence.</p> <p>Questionnaires were posted to 320 farmers chosen randomly from 6 regions, encompassing 25 counties, of the Republic of Ireland. The questionnaire was designed to obtain information about vaccination; reproductive disease; breeding herd details; the presence of recognized risk factors from previous studies; and husbandry on each farm. Data collected from 128 eligible herds were subjected to statistical analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Following the use of Pearson's Chi-Square Test, those variables associated with a herd being "infected" with a significance level of P < 0.2 were considered as candidates for multivariable logistic regression modelling. Breeding herd size was found to be a statistically significant risk factor after multivariable logistic regression. The odds of a herd being positive for leptospiral infection were 5.47 times higher (P = 0.032) in herds with 14 to 23 breeding animals compared with herds with ≤ 13 breeding animals, adjusting for Region, and 7.08 times higher (P = 0.033) in herds with 32.6 to 142 breeding animals.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Breeding herd size was identified as a significant risk factor for leptospiral infection in Irish suckler herds, which was similar to findings of previous studies of leptospirosis in dairy herds.</p

The developmental dynamics of terrorist organizations

We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a simulation model of organizational dynamics, we show that the production of violent events tends to accelerate with increasing size and experience. This coupling of frequency, experience and size arises from a fundamental positive feedback loop in which attacks lead to growth which leads to increased production of new attacks. In contrast, event severity is independent of both size and experience. Thus larger, more experienced organizations are more deadly because they attack more frequently, not because their attacks are more deadly, and large events are equally likely to come from large and small organizations. These results hold across political ideologies and time, suggesting that the frequency and severity of terrorism may be constrained by fundamental processes.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, supplementary materia

Inter-annual decrease in pulse rate and peak frequency of Southeast Pacific blue whale song types

The decrease in the frequency of two southeast Pacific blue whale song types was examined over decades, usingacoustic data from several different sources ranging between the Equator and Chilean Patagonia. The pulse rate ofthe song units as well as their peak frequency were measured using two different methods (summed auto-correlationand Fourier transform). The sources of error associated with each measurement were assessed. There was a lineardecline in both parameters for the more common song type (southeast Pacific song type n ◦ 2). An abbreviated analysisalso showed a frequency decline in the scarcer southeast Pacific song type n ◦ 1 between 1970 to 2014, revealing thatboth song types are declining at similar rates. We discussed the use of measuring both pulse rate and peak frequencyto examine the frequency decline. Finally, a comparison of the rates of frequency decline with other song typesreported in the literature is presented.La décroissance en fréquence des deux chants de baleine bleue de l'océan pacifique sud est est examiné sur plusieurs décennies en utilisant comme source des données acoustiques de l'Equateur à la Patagonie chilienne. La fréquence de pulsation et la fréquence pic des signaux sont mesurés en utilisant deux méthodes distinctes (auto-corrélation sommée et transformée de Fourier rapide). Les sources d'erreur associées à chaque mesure sont estimées. Il y a un déclin linéaire de ces deux fréquences pour le chant le plus commun de cette zone (chant du Pacifique Sud Est n°2, SEP2). Un analyse plus rapide montre aussi une baisse linéaire, entre 1970 et 2014, de la fréquence du chant SEP1, plus rarement enregistré dans cette zone. Ces deux baisses ont des amplitudes similaires. L'intérêt de mesurer la fréquence de pulsation et la fréquence pic de façon concomitante est estimé. Enfin, une comparaison globale des déclins en fréquence de tous les types de chants de baleines bleues est fournie

Spectral quantification of nonlinear behaviour of the nearshore seabed and correlations with potential forcings at Duck, N.C., U.S.A

Local bathymetric quasi-periodic patterns of oscillation are identified from monthly profile surveys taken at two shore-perpendicular transects at the USACE field research facility in Duck, North Carolina, USA, spanning 24.5 years and covering the swash and surf zones. The chosen transects are the two furthest (north and south) from the pier located at the study site. Research at Duck has traditionally focused on one or more of these transects as the effects of the pier are least at these locations. The patterns are identified using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Possible correlations with potential forcing mechanisms are discussed by 1) doing an SSA with same parameter settings to independently identify the quasi-periodic cycles embedded within three potentially linked sequences: monthly wave heights (MWH), monthly mean water levels (MWL) and the large scale atmospheric index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and 2) comparing the patterns within MWH, MWL and NAO to the local bathymetric patterns. The results agree well with previous patterns identified using wavelets and confirm the highly nonstationary behaviour of beach levels at Duck; the discussion of potential correlations with hydrodynamic and atmospheric phenomena is a new contribution. The study is then extended to all measured bathymetric profiles, covering an area of 1100m (alongshore) by 440m (cross-shore), to 1) analyse linear correlations between the bathymetry and the potential forcings using multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MEOF) and linear correlation analysis and 2) identify which collective quasi-periodic bathymetric patterns are correlated with those within MWH, MWL or NAO, based on a (nonlinear) multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). (...continued in submitted paper)Comment: 50 pages, 3 tables, 8 figure

Getting shot of elves: healing, witchcraft and fairies in the Scottish witchcraft trials

This paper re-examines the evidence of the Scottish witchcraft trials for beliefs associated by scholars with "elf-shot." Some supposed evidence for elf-shot is dismissed, but other material illuminates the interplay between illness, healing and fairy-lore in early modern Scotland, and the relationship of these beliefs to witchcraft itself

Conformation-regulated mechanosensory control via titin domains in cardiac muscle

The giant filamentous protein titin is ideally positioned in the muscle sarcomere to sense mechanical stimuli and transform them into biochemical signals, such as those triggering cardiac hypertrophy. In this review, we ponder the evidence for signaling hotspots along the titin filament involved in mechanosensory control mechanisms. On the way, we distinguish between stress and strain as triggers of mechanical signaling events at the cardiac sarcomere. Whereas the Z-disk and M-band regions of titin may be prominently involved in sensing mechanical stress, signaling hotspots within the elastic I-band titin segment may respond primarily to mechanical strain. Common to both stress and strain sensor elements is their regulation by conformational changes in protein domains