American political affiliation, 2003–43: a cohort component projection

The recent rise and stability in American party identification has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party bases. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces which will produce a natural Democratic advantage in the future while conservative writers highlight the importance of high Republican fertility in securing Republican growth. These concerns foreground the neglect of demography within political science. This paper addresses this omission by conducting the first ever cohort component projection of American partisan populations to 2043 based on survey and census data. A number of scenarios are modeled, but, on current trends, we predict that American partisanship will shift much less than the nation’s ethnic composition because the parties’ age structures are similar. Still, our projections find that the Democrats gain two to three percentage points from the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, though Republican fertility may redress the balance in the very long term

High-efficiency p-i-n photodetectors on selective-area-grown ge for monolithic integration

We demonstrate normal incidence p-i-n photodiodes on selective-area-grown Ge using multiple hydrogen annealing for heteroepitaxy for the purpose of monolithic integration. An enhanced efficiency in the near-infrared regime and the absorption edge shifting to longer wavelength is achieved due to 0.14% residual tensile strain in the selective-area-grown Ge. The responsivities at 1.48, 1.525, and 1.55 μ are 0.8, 0.7, and 0.64 A/W, respectively, without an optimal antireflection coating. These results are promising toward monolithically integrated on-chip optical links and in telecommunications. © 2009 IEEE

Rapid accretion state transitions following the tidal disruption event AT2018fyk

Following a tidal disruption event (TDE), the accretion rate can evolve from quiescent to near-Eddington levels and back over months - years timescales. This provides a unique opportunity to study the formation and evolution of the accretion flow around supermassive black holes (SMBHs). We present two years of multi-wavelength monitoring observations of the TDE AT2018fyk at X-ray, UV, optical and radio wavelengths. We identify three distinct accretion states and two state transitions between them. These appear remarkably similar to the behaviour of stellar-mass black holes in outburst. The X-ray spectral properties show a transition from a soft (thermal-dominated) to a hard (power-law dominated) spectral state around L$_{\rm bol} \sim$few $\times 10^{-2}$ L$_{\rm Edd}$, and the strengthening of the corona over time $\sim$100--200 days after the UV/optical peak. Contemporaneously, the spectral energy distribution (in particular, the UV-to-X-ray spectral slope $\alpha_{ox}$) shows a pronounced softening as the outburst progresses. The X-ray timing properties also show a marked change, initially dominated by variability at long ($>$day) timescales while a high frequency ($\sim$10$^{-3}$ Hz) component emerges after the transition into the hard state. At late times ($\sim$500 days after peak), a second accretion state transition occurs, from the hard into the quiescent state, as identified by the sudden collapse of the bolometric (X-ray+UV) emission to levels below 10$^{-3.4}$ L$_{\rm Edd}$. Our findings illustrate that TDEs can be used to study the scale (in)variance of accretion processes in individual SMBHs. Consequently, they provide a new avenue to study accretion states over seven orders of magnitude in black hole mass, removing limitations inherent to commonly used ensemble studies.Comment: Accepted version following referee comments. 2 new figures compared to previous arxiv version (Figs 9 and 10). Data will be available from the journal webpages, or upon request to the author

High efficiency monolithic photodetectors for integrated optoelectronics in the near infrared

Monolithic Germanium photodetectors integrated on Si with external efficiency up to 68% at 1550nm and low dark current density 3.2mA/cm2 are demonstrated. The absorption edge red shifted by 47nm corresponding to bandgap energy reduced by 24meV. © 2009 IEEE

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH4/ source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10-30% to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with siteto regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model's estimate of aerenchyma area, which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May-September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH4 predictions and sitelevel observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH4 emissions in the cold season (October-April). The monthly atmospheric CH4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH4 cycle are from the wetland extent, coldseason CH4 production and CH4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in highlatitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations across spatial scales can inform model structural and parameter improvements

The Self Model and the Conception of Biological Identity in Immunology

The self/non-self model, first proposed by F.M. Burnet, has dominated immunology for sixty years now. According to this model, any foreign element will trigger an immune reaction in an organism, whereas endogenous elements will not, in normal circumstances, induce an immune reaction. In this paper we show that the self/non-self model is no longer an appropriate explanation of experimental data in immunology, and that this inadequacy may be rooted in an excessively strong metaphysical conception of biological identity. We suggest that another hypothesis, one based on the notion of continuity, gives a better account of immune phenomena. Finally, we underscore the mapping between this metaphysical deflation from self to continuity in immunology and the philosophical debate between substantialism and empiricism about identity