Estimating causal networks in biosphere–atmosphere interaction with the PCMCI approach

Local meteorological conditions and biospheric activity are tightly coupled. Understanding these links is an essential prerequisite for predicting the Earth system under climate change conditions. However, many empirical studies on the interaction between the biosphere and the atmosphere are based on correlative approaches that are not able to deduce causal paths, and only very few studies apply causal discovery methods. Here, we use a recently proposed causal graph discovery algorithm, which aims to reconstruct the causal dependency structure underlying a set of time series. We explore the potential of this method to infer temporal dependencies in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. Specifically we address the following questions: How do periodicity and heteroscedasticity influence causal detection rates, i.e. the detection of existing and non-existing links? How consistent are results for noise-contaminated data? Do results exhibit an increased information content that justifies the use of this causal-inference method? We explore the first question using artificial time series with well known dependencies that mimic real-world biosphere-atmosphere interactions. The two remaining questions are addressed jointly in two case studies utilizing observational data. Firstly, we analyse three replicated eddy covariance datasets from a Mediterranean ecosystem at half hourly time resolution allowing us to understand the impact of measurement uncertainties. Secondly, we analyse global NDVI time series (GIMMS 3g) along with gridded climate data to study large-scale climatic drivers of vegetation greenness. Overall, the results confirm the capacity of the causal discovery method to extract time-lagged linear dependencies under realistic settings. The violation of the method's assumptions increases the likelihood to detect false links. Nevertheless, we consistently identify interaction patterns in observational data. Our findings suggest that estimating a directed biosphere-atmosphere network at the ecosystem level can offer novel possibilities to unravel complex multi-directional interactions. Other than classical correlative approaches, our findings are constrained to a few meaningful set of relations which can be powerful insights for the evaluation of terrestrial ecosystem models

DEFCON: high-performance event processing with information security

In finance and healthcare, event processing systems handle sensitive data on behalf of many clients. Guaranteeing information security in such systems is challenging because of their strict performance requirements in terms of high event throughput and low processing latency. We describe DEFCON, an event processing system that enforces constraints on event flows between event processing units. DEFCON uses a combination of static and runtime techniques for achieving light-weight isolation of event flows, while supporting efficient sharing of events. Our experimental evaluation in a financial data processing scenario shows that DEFCON can provide information security with significantly lower processing latency compared to a traditional approach

Sensitivity of estimated total canopy SIF emission to remotely sensed LAI and BRDF products

Remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides new possibilities to estimate terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). To mitigate the angular and canopy structural effects on original SIF observed by sensors (SIFobs), it is recommended to derive total canopy SIF emission (SIFtotal) of leaves within a canopy using canopy interception (i0) and reflectance of vegetation (RV). However, the effects of the uncertainties in i0 and RV on the estimation of SIFtotal have not been well understood. Here, we evaluated such effects on the estimation of GPP using the Soil-Canopy-Observation of Photosynthesis and the Energy balance (SCOPE) model. The SCOPE simulations showed that the R2 between GPP and SIFtotal was clearly higher than that between GPP and SIFobs and the differences in R2 (ΔR2) tend to decrease with the increasing levels of uncertainties in i0 and RV. The resultant ΔR2 decreased to zero when the uncertainty level in i0 and RV was ~30% for red band SIF (RSIF, 683 nm) and ~20% for far-red band SIF (FRSIF, 740 nm). In addition, as compared to the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) SIFobs at both red and far-red bands, SIFtotal derived using any combination of i0 (from MCD15, VNP15, and CGLS LAI products) and RV (from MCD34, MCD19, and VNP43 BRDF products) showed comparable improvements in estimating GPP. With this study, we suggest a way to advance our understanding in the estimation of a more physiological relevant SIF datasets (SIFtotal) using current satellite products

Application of the penalty coupling method for the analysis of blood vessels

Due to the significant health and economic impact of blood vessel diseases on modern society, its analysis is becoming of increasing importance for the medical sciences. The complexity of the vascular system, its dynamics and material characteristics all make it an ideal candidate for analysis through fluid structure interaction (FSI) simulations. FSI is a relatively new approach in numerical analysis and enables the multi-physical analysis of problems, yielding a higher accuracy of results than could be possible when using a single physics code to analyse the same category of problems. This paper introduces the concepts behind the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) formulation using the penalty coupling method. It moves on to present a validation case and compares it to available simulation results from the literature using a different FSI method. Results were found to correspond well to the comparison case as well as basic theory

Evalutating the potential of desis to infer plant taxonomical and functional diversities in europwean forests

Abstract. Tackling the accelerated human-induced biodiversity loss requires tools able to map biodiversity and its changes globally. Remote sensing (RS) offers unique capabilities of characterizing Earth surfaces; therefore, it could map plant biodiversity continuously and globally. This approach is supported by the Spectral Variation Hypothesis (SVH), which states that spectra and species (taxonomic and trait) diversities are linked through environmental heterogeneity. In this work, we evaluate the capability of the DESIS hyperspectral imager to capture plant diversity patterns as measured in dedicated plots of the network FunDivEUROPE. We computed functional and taxonomical diversity metrics from field taxonomic, structural, and foliar measurements in vegetation plots sampled in Spain and Romania. In addition, we also computed functional diversity metrics both from the DESIS reflectance factors and from vegetation parameters estimated via inversion of a radiative transfer model. Results showed that only metrics computed from spectral reflectance were able to capture taxonomic variability in the area. However, the lack of sensitivity was related to the insufficient plot size and the lack of spatial match between remote sensing and field data, but also the differences between the information contained in the field traits and remote sensing data, and the potential uncertainties in the remote estimates of vegetation parameters. Thus, while DESIS showed some sensitivity to plant diversity, further efforts are needed to deploy suitable biodiversity evaluation and validation plots and networks that support the development of biodiversity remote sensing products

On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. <br><br> Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity. <br><br> Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements. <br><br> We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO<sub>2</sub> emissions vs. low CO<sub>2</sub> emissions scenario). Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval – CI: 2.4 days century<sup>−1</sup> for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century<sup>−1</sup> for A1fi), whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century<sup>−1</sup> in the simulated trends). The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century<sup>−1</sup> for A1fi, ±3.6 days century<sup>−1</sup> for B1). The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per degree of warming) varied between 2.2 days °C<sup>−1</sup> and 5.2 days °C<sup>−1</sup> depending on model structure. <br><br> We quantified the impact of uncertainties in bud-burst forecasts on simulated photosynthetic CO<sub>2</sub> uptake and evapotranspiration (ET) using a process-based terrestrial biosphere model. Uncertainty in phenology model structure led to uncertainty in the description of forest seasonality, which accumulated to uncertainty in annual model estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ET of 9.6% and 2.9%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis shows that a variation of ±10 days in bud-burst dates led to a variation of ±5.0% for annual GPP and about ±2.0% for ET. <br><br> For phenology models, differences among future climate scenarios (i.e. driver) represent the largest source of uncertainty, followed by uncertainties related to model structure, and finally, related to model parameterization. The uncertainties we have quantified will affect the description of the seasonality of ecosystem processes and in particular the simulation of carbon uptake by forest ecosystems, with a larger impact of uncertainties related to phenology model structure, followed by uncertainties related to phenological model parameterization