Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Is stereotactic body radiotherapy an effective treatment in metastatic lung cancer with oligoprogressive disease?

Background: Oligoprogression (OPD) is defined as a condition where limited progression (1–3 metastases) is observed in patients undergoing systemic cancer treatment. In this study we investigated the impact of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in patients with OPD from metastatic lung cancer. Material and Methods: Data from a cohort of consecutive patients with SBRT treated between June 2015 and August 2021 were collected. All extracranial metastatic sites of OPD from lung cancer were included. Dose regimens consisted of 24 in 2 fractions, 30–51 Gy in 3 fractions, 30–55 Gy in 5 fractions, 52.5 Gy in 7 fractions and 44–56 Gy in 8 fractions. Kaplan–Meier method was used to calculate Overall Survival (OS), Local Control (LC), and Disease-Free Survival (DFS) from the start date of SBRT to the event. Results: Sixty-three patients, 34 female and 29 males were included. Median age was 75 years (range 25–83). All patients received concurrent systemic treatment before the start of the SBRT: 19 chemotherapy (CT), 26 CT plus immunotherapy (IT) or Tyrosin kinase inhibitors (TKI) and 18 IT/TKI. SBRT was delivered to the lung (n = 29), mediastinal node (n = 9), bone (n = 7), adrenal gland (n = 19), other visceral metastases (1) and other node metastases (n = 4). After a median follow-up of 17 months, median OS was 23 months. LC was 93% at 1 year and 87% at 2 years. DFS was 7 months. According to our results, there was no statistically significant correlation between prognostic factors and OS after SBRT in OPD patients. Conclusions: Median DFS was 7 months, translating into the continuation of effective systemic treatment as other metastases grow slowly. In patients with oligoprogression disease, SBRT is a valid and efficient treatment that may enable postponing the switch of systemic line

Is stereotactic body radiotherapy an effective treatment in metastatic lung cancer with oligoprogressive disease?

Oligoprogression (OPD) is defined as a condition where limited progression (1–3 metastases) is observed in patients undergoing systemic cancer treatment. In this study we investigated the impact of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in patients with OPD from metastatic lung cancer. Data from a cohort of consecutive patients with SBRT treated between June 2015 and August 2021 were collected. All extracranial metastatic sites of OPD from lung cancer were included. Dose regimens consisted of 24 in 2 fractions, 30–51 Gy in 3 fractions, 30–55 Gy in 5 fractions, 52.5 Gy in 7 fractions and 44–56 Gy in 8 fractions. Kaplan–Meier method was used to calculate Overall Survival (OS), Local Control (LC), and Disease-Free Survival (DFS) from the start date of SBRT to the event. Sixty-three patients, 34 female and 29 males were included. Median age was 75 years (range 25–83). All patients received concurrent systemic treatment before the start of the SBRT: 19 chemotherapy (CT), 26 CT plus immunotherapy (IT) or Tyrosin kinase inhibitors (TKI) and 18 IT/TKI. SBRT was delivered to the lung (n = 29), mediastinal node (n = 9), bone (n = 7), adrenal gland (n = 19), other visceral metastases (1) and other node metastases (n = 4). After a median follow-up of 17 months, median OS was 23 months. LC was 93% at 1 year and 87% at 2 years. DFS was 7 months. According to our results, there was no statistically significant correlation between prognostic factors and OS after SBRT in OPD patients. Median DFS was 7 months, translating into the continuation of effective systemic treatment as other metastases grow slowly. In patients with oligoprogression disease, SBRT is a valid and efficient treatment that may enable postponing the switch of systemic line.</p

Chemo-radiotherapy plus durvalumab for loco-regional relapse of resected NSCLC

Abstract Background tumor recurrence after NSCLC surgical resection is the most common cause of treatment failure that sharply reduces the patient’s life expectancy. The optimal treatment strategy for loco-regional recurrences developing after surgical resection in patients with non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is not established yet. This report aims to describe the pattern of relapse, PFS, and OS in patients treated with radio-chemotherapy and durvalumab for loco-regional relapse after surgery. Methods  We conducted a multicenter, retrospective study including subjects who underwent surgical resection for NSCLC and were treated with Pacific protocol after loco-regional relapse. Results Twenty-four patients met the inclusion criteria. At the time of diagnosis mean age was 65 years (range 47–78), the majority being male (58.3%). The 12-month progression-free survival rate was 68.7%, the 18-month progression-free survival rate was 45.8%, and the 24-month progression-free survival rate was 34.3%. There were three deaths: the 12-month survival rate was 91%, and the 18-month survival rate was 82.8%. Conclusions In this article, we propose a treatment strategy that might prolong post recurrence survival in patients with good performance status experiencing loco-regional relapse after surgery

Radiosensitizing Effect of Trabectedin on Human Soft Tissue Sarcoma Cells

Trabectedin is used for the treatment of advanced soft tissue sarcomas (STSs). In this study, we evaluated if trabectedin could enhance the efficacy of irradiation (IR) by increasing the intrinsic cell radiosensitivity and modulating tumor micro-environment in fibrosarcoma (HS 93.T), leiomyosarcoma (HS5.T), liposarcoma (SW872), and rhabdomyosarcoma (RD) cell lines. A significant reduction in cell surviving fraction (SF) following trabectedin + IR compared to IR alone was observed in liposarcoma and leiomyosarcoma (enhancement ratio at 50%, ER50: 1.45 and 2.35, respectively), whereas an additive effect was shown in rhabdomyosarcoma and fibrosarcoma. Invasive cells’ fraction significantly decreased following trabectedin ± IR compared to IR alone. Differences in cell cycle distribution were observed in leiomyosarcoma and rhabdomyosarcoma treated with trabectedin + IR. In all STS lines, trabectedin + IR resulted in a significantly higher number of γ-H2AX (histone H2AX) foci 30 min compared to the control, trabectedin, or IR alone. Expression of ATM, RAD50, Ang-2, VEGF, and PD-L1 was not significantly altered following trabectedin + IR. In conclusion, trabectedin radiosensitizes STS cells by affecting SF (particularly in leiomyosarcoma and liposarcoma), invasiveness, cell cycle distribution, and γ-H2AX foci formation. Conversely, no synergistic effect was observed on DNA damage repair, neoangiogenesis, and immune system

A Deep Learning Approach for the Fast Generation of Synthetic Computed Tomography from Low-Dose Cone Beam Computed Tomography Images on a Linear Accelerator Equipped with Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionising many aspects of radiotherapy (RT), opening scenarios that were unimaginable just a few years ago. The aim of this study is to propose a Deep Leaning (DL) approach able to quickly generate synthetic Computed Tomography (CT) images from low-dose Cone Beam CT (CBCT) acquired on a modern linear accelerator integrating AI. Methods: A total of 53 patients treated in the pelvic region were enrolled and split into training (30), validation (9), and testing (14). A Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) was trained for 200 epochs. The image accuracy was evaluated by calculating the mean and mean absolute error (ME and ME) between sCT and CT. RT treatment plans were calculated on CT and sCT images, and dose accuracy was evaluated considering Dose Volume Histogram (DVH) and gamma analysis. Results: A total of 4507 images were selected for training. The MAE and ME values in the test set were 36 ± 6 HU and 7 ± 6 HU, respectively. Mean gamma passing rates for 1%/1 mm, 2%/2 mm, and 3%/3 mm tolerance criteria were respectively 93.5 ± 3.4%, 98.0 ± 1.3%, and 99.2 ± 0.7%, with no difference between curative and palliative cases. All the DVH parameters analysed were within 1 Gy of the difference between sCT and CT. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that sCT generation using the DL approach is feasible on low-dose CBCT images. The proposed approach can represent a valid tool to speed up the online adaptive procedure and remove CT simulation from the RT workflow

Impact of stereotactic body radiotherapy vs palliative radiotherapy on oncologic outcomes of patients with metastatic kidney cancer concomitantly treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: a preliminary, multicentre experience

To explore the benefit yielded by radiotherapy (RT), we report a series of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients treated with concomitant RT plus Nivolumab

Clinical nutrition in surgical oncology: Young AIOM-AIRO-SICO multidisciplinary national survey on behalf of NutriOnc research group

Malnutrition is a common condition in cancer patients which is usually associated with functional limitations, as well as increased morbidity and mortality. Based on the support of the young sections of Italian Association of Medical Oncology (AIOM), Italian Association of Radiotherapy and Clinical Oncology (AIRO) and Italian Society of Surgical Oncology (SICO) merged into the NutriOnc Research Group, we performed a multidisciplinary national survey with the aim to define the awareness of nutritional issues among healthcare professionals delivering anticancer care. The questionnaire was organized in four sections, as follows: Knowledge and practices regarding Nutritional Management of cancer patients; Timing of screening and assessment of Nutritional Status; Nutritional Treatment and prescription criteria; Immunonutrition and educational topics. The modules focused on esophagogastric, hepato-bilio-pancreatic and colorectal malignancies. Overall, 215 physicians completed the survey. As regards the management of Nutritional Status of cancer patients, many responders adopted the ERAS program (49.3%), while a consistent number of professionals did not follow a specific validated nutritional care protocol (41.8%), mainly due to lack of educational courses (14.5%) and financial support (15.3%). Nearly all the included institutions had a multidisciplinary team (92%) to finalize the treatment decision-making. Cancer patients routinely underwent nutritional screening according to 57.2% of interviewed physicians. The timing of nutritional assessment was at diagnosis (37.8%), before surgery (25.9%), after surgery (16.7%), before radiochemotherapy (13.5%) and after radiochemotherapy (7%). Most of the responders reported that nutritional status was assessed throughout the duration of cancer treatments (55.6%). An important gap between current delivery and need of nutritional assessment persists. The development of specific and defined care protocols and the adherence to these tools may be the key to improving nutritional support management in clinical practice