Tourism destination competitiveness: second thoughts on the world economic forum reports

The Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Reports of the World Economic Forum elaborate the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI) as an overall measure of destination competitiveness for 130 economies worldwide. From a tourism management point of view, a measure such as the TTCI is expected to be instrumental in explaining and predicting the tourism performance of receiving countries. This study explores several ways to transform the TTCI into a formative structural model. Partial least squares path modelling, PLS regression, mixture modelling and non-linear covariance-based structural equation modelling are applied to examine the TTCI's predictive power. The analysis probes possible measures for improvement. The destination countries may be subject to unobserved heterogeneity with regard to how the various constituents of competitiveness act on tourism performance. Interaction phenomena seem to prohibit a simple cause-effect pattern and non-linear relationships show encouraging results

Age-period-cohort analysis of trends in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease with an unknown cause. Studies have reported that the incidence rate of ALS might be changing. As ALS is an age related disease, crude incidence could increase as population structure changes and overall life expectancy improves. Age-period-cohort (APC) models are frequently used to investigate trends in demographic rates such as incidence. Age-specific incidence rate for ALS from 1996 to 2014 were taken from a population-based ALS register in Ireland. To circumvent the well-known identifiability issue in APC models, we apply the method of Partial Least Squares Regression to separate the effects of Age, Period and Cohort on ALS incidence over time. This APC analysis shows no cohort effect and the initial signs of a period effect; increasing incidence of ALS in the most recently diagnosed group. As further years of data accrue to the Irish register it will become clear if this effect emerges as a strong trend in the incidence of ALS in Ireland and replication of these analyses in other populations will show if our findings on temporal patterns in ALS incidence are shared elsewhere

Simple Epidemiological Dynamics Explain Phylogenetic Clustering of HIV from Patients with Recent Infection

Phylogenies of highly genetically variable viruses such as HIV-1 are potentially informative of epidemiological dynamics. Several studies have demonstrated the presence of clusters of highly related HIV-1 sequences, particularly among recently HIV-infected individuals, which have been used to argue for a high transmission rate during acute infection. Using a large set of HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from men who have sex with men, we demonstrate that virus from recent infections tend to be phylogenetically clustered at a greater rate than virus from patients with chronic infection (‘excess clustering’) and also tend to cluster with other recent HIV infections rather than chronic, established infections (‘excess co-clustering’), consistent with previous reports. To determine the role that a higher infectivity during acute infection may play in excess clustering and co-clustering, we developed a simple model of HIV infection that incorporates an early period of intensified transmission, and explicitly considers the dynamics of phylogenetic clusters alongside the dynamics of acute and chronic infected cases. We explored the potential for clustering statistics to be used for inference of acute stage transmission rates and found that no single statistic explains very much variance in parameters controlling acute stage transmission rates. We demonstrate that high transmission rates during the acute stage is not the main cause of excess clustering of virus from patients with early/acute infection compared to chronic infection, which may simply reflect the shorter time since transmission in acute infection. Higher transmission during acute infection can result in excess co-clustering of sequences, while the extent of clustering observed is most sensitive to the fraction of infections sampled

Improved Heterosis Prediction by Combining Information on DNA- and Metabolic Markers

Background: Hybrids represent a cornerstone in the success story of breeding programs. The fundamental principle underlying this success is the phenomenon of hybrid vigour, or heterosis. It describes an advantage of the offspring as compared to the two parental lines with respect to parameters such as growth and resistance against abiotic or biotic stress. Dominance, overdominance or epistasis based models are commonly used explanations. Conclusion/Significance: The heterosis level is clearly a function of the combination of the parents used for offspring production. This results in a major challenge for plant breeders, as usually several thousand combinations of parents have to be tested for identifying the best combinations. Thus, any approach to reliably predict heterosis levels based on properties of the parental lines would be highly beneficial for plant breeding. Methodology/Principal Findings: Recently, genetic data have been used to predict heterosis. Here we show that a combination of parental genetic and metabolic markers, identified via feature selection and minimum-description-length based regression methods, significantly improves the prediction of biomass heterosis in resulting offspring. These findings will help furthering our understanding of the molecular basis of heterosis, revealing, for instance, the presence of nonlinear genotype-phenotype relationships. In addition, we describe a possible approach for accelerated selection in plant breeding

Predicting Peptide Binding Affinities to MHC Molecules Using a Modified Semi-Empirical Scoring Function

The Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) plays an important role in the human immune system. The MHC is involved in the antigen presentation system assisting T cells to identify foreign or pathogenic proteins. However, an MHC molecule binding a self-peptide may incorrectly trigger an immune response and cause an autoimmune disease, such as multiple sclerosis. Understanding the molecular mechanism of this process will greatly assist in determining the aetiology of various diseases and in the design of effective drugs. In the present study, we have used the Fresno semi-empirical scoring function and modify the approach to the prediction of peptide-MHC binding by using open-source and public domain software. We apply the method to HLA class II alleles DR15, DR1, and DR4, and the HLA class I allele HLA A2. Our analysis shows that using a large set of binding data and multiple crystal structures improves the predictive capability of the method. The performance of the method is also shown to be correlated to the structural similarity of the crystal structures used. We have exposed some of the obstacles faced by structure-based prediction methods and proposed possible solutions to those obstacles. It is envisaged that these obstacles need to be addressed before the performance of structure-based methods can be on par with the sequence-based methods

A novel approach to investigate tissue-specific trinucleotide repeat instability

Abstract Background In Huntington's disease (HD), an expanded CAG repeat produces characteristic striatal neurodegeneration. Interestingly, the HD CAG repeat, whose length determines age at onset, undergoes tissue-specific somatic instability, predominant in the striatum, suggesting that tissue-specific CAG length changes could modify the disease process. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms underlying the tissue specificity of somatic instability may provide novel routes to therapies. However progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of sensitive high-throughput instability quantification methods and global approaches to identify the underlying factors. Results Here we describe a novel approach to gain insight into the factors responsible for the tissue specificity of somatic instability. Using accurate genetic knock-in mouse models of HD, we developed a reliable, high-throughput method to quantify tissue HD CAG repeat instability and integrated this with genome-wide bioinformatic approaches. Using tissue instability quantified in 16 tissues as a phenotype and tissue microarray gene expression as a predictor, we built a mathematical model and identified a gene expression signature that accurately predicted tissue instability. Using the predictive ability of this signature we found that somatic instability was not a consequence of pathogenesis. In support of this, genetic crosses with models of accelerated neuropathology failed to induce somatic instability. In addition, we searched for genes and pathways that correlated with tissue instability. We found that expression levels of DNA repair genes did not explain the tissue specificity of somatic instability. Instead, our data implicate other pathways, particularly cell cycle, metabolism and neurotransmitter pathways, acting in combination to generate tissue-specific patterns of instability. Conclusion Our study clearly demonstrates that multiple tissue factors reflect the level of somatic instability in different tissues. In addition, our quantitative, genome-wide approach is readily applicable to high-throughput assays and opens the door to widespread applications with the potential to accelerate the discovery of drugs that alter tissue instability

Genetically defined elevated homocysteine levels do not result in widespread changes of DNA methylation in leukocytes

BACKGROUND:DNA methylation is affected by the activities of the key enzymes and intermediate metabolites of the one-carbon pathway, one of which involves homocysteine. We investigated the effect of the well-known genetic variant associated with mildly elevated homocysteine: MTHFR 677C>T independently and in combination with other homocysteine-associated variants, on genome-wide leukocyte DNA-methylation. METHODS:Methylation levels were assessed using Illumina 450k arrays on 9,894 individuals of European ancestry from 12 cohort studies. Linear-mixed-models were used to study the association of additive MTHFR 677C>T and genetic-risk score (GRS) based on 18 homocysteine-associated SNPs, with genome-wide methylation. RESULTS:Meta-analysis revealed that the MTHFR 677C>T variant was associated with 35 CpG sites in cis, and the GRS showed association with 113 CpG sites near the homocysteine-associated variants. Genome-wide analysis revealed that the MTHFR 677C>T variant was associated with 1 trans-CpG (nearest gene ZNF184), while the GRS model showed association with 5 significant trans-CpGs annotated to nearest genes PTF1A, MRPL55, CTDSP2, CRYM and FKBP5. CONCLUSIONS:Our results do not show widespread changes in DNA-methylation across the genome, and therefore do not support the hypothesis that mildly elevated homocysteine is associated with widespread methylation changes in leukocytes

The pls Package: Principal Component and Partial Least Squares Regression in R

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