Is the ratio of pleural mesothelioma mortality to pleural cancer mortality approximately unity for Italy? Considerations from the oldest regional mesothelioma register in Italy

doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600363 www.bjcancer.co

Social contact structures and time use patterns in the Manicaland Province of Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Patterns of person-to-person contacts relevant for infectious diseases transmission are still poorly quantified in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where socio-demographic structures and behavioral attitudes are expected to be different from those of more developed countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a diary-based survey on daily contacts and time-use of individuals of different ages in one rural and one peri-urban site of Manicaland, Zimbabwe. A total of 2,490 diaries were collected and used to derive age-structured contact matrices, to analyze time spent by individuals in different settings, and to identify the key determinants of individuals' mixing patterns. Overall 10.8 contacts per person/day were reported, with a significant difference between the peri-urban and the rural site (11.6 versus 10.2). A strong age-assortativeness characterized contacts of school-aged children, whereas the high proportion of extended families and the young population age-structure led to a significant intergenerational mixing at older ages. Individuals spent on average 67% of daytime at home, 2% at work, and 9% at school. Active participation in school and work resulted the key drivers of the number of contacts and, similarly, household size, class size, and time spent at work influenced the number of home, school, and work contacts, respectively. We found that the heterogeneous nature of home contacts is critical for an epidemic transmission chain. In particular, our results suggest that, during the initial phase of an epidemic, about 50% of infections are expected to occur among individuals younger than 12 years and less than 20% among individuals older than 35 years. CONCLUSIONS: With the current work, we have gathered data and information on the ways through which individuals in SSA interact, and on the factors that mostly facilitate this interaction. Monitoring these processes is critical to realistically predict the effects of interventions on infectious diseases dynamics

Mesothelioma incidence surveillance systems and claims for workers’ compensation. Epidemiological evidence and prospects for an integrated framework

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malignant mesothelioma is an aggressive and lethal tumour strongly associated with exposure to asbestos (mainly occupational). In Italy a large proportion of workers are protected from occupational diseases by public insurance and an epidemiological surveillance system for incident mesothelioma cases.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We set up an individual linkage between the Italian national mesothelioma register (ReNaM) and the Italian workers’ compensation authority (INAIL) archives. Logistic regression models were used to identify and test explanatory variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We extracted 3270 mesothelioma cases with occupational origins from the ReNaM, matching them with 1625 subjects in INAIL (49.7%); 91.2% (1,482) of the claims received compensation. The risk of not seeking compensation is significantly higher for women and the elderly. Claims have increased significantly in recent years and there is a clear geographical gradient (northern and more developed regions having higher claims rates). The highest rates of compensation claims were after work known to involve asbestos.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data illustrate the importance of documentation and dissemination of all asbestos exposure modalities. Strategies focused on structural and systematic interaction between epidemiological surveillance and insurance systems are needed.</p

Little-Italy: an Agent-Based Approach to the Estimation of Contact Patterns. Fitting Predicted Matrices to Serological Data.

Knowledge of social contact patterns still represents the most critical step for understanding the spread of directly transmitted infections. Data on social contact patterns are, however, expensive to obtain. A major issue is then whether the simulation of synthetic societies might be helpful to reliably reconstruct such data. In this paper, we compute a variety of synthetic age-specific contact matrices through simulation of a simple individual-based model (IBM). The model is informed by Italian Time Use data and routine socio-demographic data (e.g., school and workplace attendance, household structure, etc.). The model is named “Little Italy” because each artificial agent is a clone of a real person. In other words, each agent's daily diary is the one observed in a corresponding real individual sampled in the Italian Time Use Survey. We also generated contact matrices from the socio-demographic model underlying the Italian IBM for pandemic prediction. These synthetic matrices are then validated against recently collected Italian serological data for Varicella (VZV) and ParvoVirus (B19). Their performance in fitting sero-profiles are compared with other matrices available for Italy, such as the Polymod matrix. Synthetic matrices show the same qualitative features of the ones estimated from sample surveys: for example, strong assortativeness and the presence of super- and sub-diagonal stripes related to contacts between parents and children. Once validated against serological data, Little Italy matrices fit worse than the Polymod one for VZV, but better than concurrent matrices for B19. This is the first occasion where synthetic contact matrices are systematically compared with real ones, and validated against epidemiological data. The results suggest that simple, carefully designed, synthetic matrices can provide a fruitful complementary approach to questionnaire-based matrices. The paper also supports the idea that, depending on the transmissibility level of the infection, either the number of different contacts, or repeated exposure, may be the key factor for transmission

Pleural Mesothelioma in New Caledonia: Associations with Environmental Risk Factors

International audienceBackground: High incidences of malignant mesothelioma (MM) have been observed in New Caledonia. Previous work has shown an association between MM and soil containing serpentinite. Objectives: We studied the spatial and temporal variation of MM and its association with environmental factors. Methods: We investigated the 109 MM cases recorded in the Cancer Registry of New Caledonia between 1984 and 2008 and performed spatial, temporal, and space-time cluster analyses. We conducted an ecological analysis involving 100 tribes over a large area including those with the highest incidence rates. Associations with environmental factors were assessed using logistic and Poisson regression analyses. Results: The highest incidence was observed in the Houaïlou area with a world age-standardized rate of 128.7 per 100,000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI), 70.41-137.84]. A significant spatial cluster grouped 18 tribes (31 observed cases vs. 8 expected cases; p = 0.001), but no significant temporal clusters were identified. The ecological analyses identified serpentinite on roads as the greatest environmental risk factor (odds ratio = 495.0; 95% CI, 46.2-4679.7; multivariate incidence rate ratio = 13.0; 95% CI, 10.2-16.6). The risk increased with serpentinite surface, proximity to serpentinite quarries and distance to the peridotite massif. The association with serpentines was stronger than with amphiboles. Living on a slope and close to dense vegetation appeared protective. The use of whitewash, previously suggested to be a risk factor, was not associated with MM incidence. Conclusions: Presence of serpentinite on roads is a major environmental risk factor for mesothelioma in New Caledonia

Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees

The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts among social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolution are limited, so that data is not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamical aspect of the contacts is disregarded. Here, we want to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns among individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population. We consider high resolution data of face-to-face interactions between the attendees of a conference, obtained from the deployment of an infrastructure based on Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess mutual face-to-face proximity. The spread of epidemics along these interactions is simulated through an SEIR model, using both the dynamical network of contacts defined by the collected data, and two aggregated versions of such network, in order to assess the role of the data temporal aspects. We show that, on the timescales considered, an aggregated network taking into account the daily duration of contacts is a good approximation to the full resolution network, whereas a homogeneous representation which retains only the topology of the contact network fails in reproducing the size of the epidemic. These results have important implications in understanding the level of detail needed to correctly inform computational models for the study and management of real epidemics