Checkerboard Patterns, Interspecific Competition, and Extinction: Lessons from Distribution Patterns of Tarsiers (Tarsius) and Slow Lorises (Nycticebus) in Insular Southeast Asia

Tarsiers (Tarsius) and slow lorises (Nycticebus) are the only extant nocturnal primates occurring in Southeast Asia. Harcourt (1999) hypothesized that in insular Southeast Asia, slow lorises and tarsiers showed a checkerboard distribution on 12 small (<12,000 km2) islands, i.e., only one or the other occurs, and attributed this to extreme levels of competition between these 2 largely faunivorous primates. Further, he predicted slow lorises were able to persist on smaller islands than tarsiers. We re-evaluated these findings using an expanded dataset including 49 islands where tarsiers or slow lorises occur. Tarsiers and slow lorises live on islands of similar size (median size of ca. 300–900 km2), and both taxa inhabit an equal proportion of small, medium, and large islands. On small islands within their area of sympatry tarsiers occur on 1 island, slow lorises on 8, both genera on 3, and we can assume they have become extinct from 11 small islands since the Last Glacial Maximum. Sizes of islands where tarsiers or slow lorises have become extinct do not differ from islands where they are still extant. We show that slow lorises occur on more islands in insular Southeast Asia than perhaps previously assumed, but these islands are not smaller on average than islands where tarsiers occur. A checkerboard distribution between these taxa is not evident. More studies are needed at the macroecological level to assess the importance of biogeographic history in explaining their present-day distribution patterns

Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineage 4 comprises globally distributed and geographically restricted sublineages

Generalist and specialist species differ in the breadth of their ecological niches. Little is known about the niche width of obligate human pathogens. Here we analyzed a global collection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineage 4 clinical isolates, the most geographically widespread cause of human tuberculosis. We show that lineage 4 comprises globally distributed and geographically restricted sublineages, suggesting a distinction between generalists and specialists. Population genomic analyses showed that, whereas the majority of human T cell epitopes were conserved in all sublineages, the proportion of variable epitopes was higher in generalists. Our data further support a European origin for the most common generalist sublineage. Hence, the global success of lineage 4 reflects distinct strategies adopted by different sublineages and the influence of human migration.We thank S. Lecher, S. Li and J. Zallet for technical support. Calculations were performed at the sciCORE scientific computing core facility at the University of Basel. This work was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grants 310030_166687 (S.G.) and 320030_153442 (M.E.) and Swiss HIV Cohort Study grant 740 to L.F.), the European Research Council (309540-EVODRTB to S.G.), TB-PAN-NET (FP7-223681 to S.N.), PathoNgenTrace projects (FP7-278864-2 to S.N.), SystemsX.ch (S.G.), the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF; S.N.), the Novartis Foundation (S.G.), the Natural Science Foundation of China (91631301 to Q.G.), and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (5U01-AI069924-05) of the US National Institutes of Health (M.E.)

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified