Demographic viability of populations of \u3cem\u3eSilene regis\u3c/em\u3e in midwestern prairies: relationships with fire management, genetic variation, geographic location, population size and isolation

We studied the demographic viability of populations of a long-lived iteroparous prairie perennial, Silene regia, in relation to management regimes, population sizes, geographical region (Ohio and Indiana vs. Missouri and Arkansas), degree of isolation and amount of genetic variation. Demographic data were collected from 16 populations for up to 7 years. This species has high survivorship, slow growth, frequent flowering and episodic seedling recruitment. Matrix projection methods were used to summarize population performance with and without recruitment. Median finite rates of increase by population varied from 0.57 to 1.82 and from 0.44 to 0.99, respectively. Populations with the highest rates of increase had been burned. Six of eight populations, for which stochastic modelling predicted persistence for 1000 years, included fire in their management. None of the five populations with predicted 100-year extinction probabilities of 100% was managed for conservation or burned. An intermediate group of three populations with at least 10% probability of extinction between 100 and 1000 years was not managed, but was none the less kept open by mowing and herbicide application. Analysis of composite elasticities showed that growth and fecundity terms were higher for growing (vs. declining) populations and that growth elasticity was higher in burned than unburned populations. Lack of burning shifts the elasticity spectrum from that typical of open habitat herbs (higher growth and fecundity elasticities) to values usually found for closed habitat herbs (higher survival elasticities). In multivariate analyses predicting finite rates of increase (with and without recruitment), fire management and region were the strongest predictors, followed by genetic variation, population size, isolation and interactions of population size and fire, and region and fire. Populations with the highest rates of increase were burned, eastern, more genetically diverse, larger and less isolated. Discrimination of populations with different extinction risks (three classes) was related mainly to fire, genetic variation and region. Most of these conclusions support conservation biology predictions that population viability will be highest in larger, less-isolated, more genetically diverse populations. However, management and geographic trends have overriding roles affecting demographic viability. Habitat fragmentation and genetic depletion have the potential to threaten residual prairie populations of S. regia, but lack of fire management appears to be the primary short-term threat

Vegetation and environment in an adjacent post oak flatwoods and barrens in Indiana

To compare adjacent post oak flatwoods and barrens communities in south-western Indiana, we used vegetational, environmental and fire history data in multivariate analyses. Barrens had greater dominance by post oak and lower tree species richness, but variation in tree species composition was not strongly related to soil moisture, litter depth or other environmental gradients measured. Tree growth has been slow and variable, with little difference between the barrens and flatwoods. Barrens and flatwoods differ in herb species composition, but with considerable overlap. In the barrens, herbaceous vegetation composition was correlated with tree basal area, litter depth and soil moisture; in the flatwoods, it was correlated with soil moisture and microelevation. The barrens and flatwoods differed only slightly but significantly in environment: barrens soils were drier in June 1986 than flatwoods soils. Data from fire-scarred trees show no clear evidence of differences in frequency or extent of fire between the flatwoods and barrens. Multistemmed post oaks in the barrens indicate that past cutting may have contributed to these openings within the closed canopy flatwoods matrix

Population genetic structure in \u3cem\u3eNolina brittoniana\u3c/em\u3e (Agavaceae), a plant endemic to the central ridges of Florida

Nolina brittoniana is endemic to the central ridges of peninsular Florida. Its scrub and sandhill habitats have suffered extensive anthropogenic modification. Analysis of isozymes from populations throughout its range revealed less genetic variation than generally reported for endemic plants. Populations were well differentiated, with significant clines in allele frequency along the north-south axis of distribution. Pair-wise F-statistics calculated at four levels of population geographic substructure revealed that current and inferred historical habitat patches had similar genetic structure. We found no evidence of recent bottlenecks or changes in genetic structure due to habitat loss and fragmentation, consistent with populations having always been small, isolated and low density. Our data support preservation of populations from throughout the species\u27 range to meet conservation objectives

Conservation implications of genetic variation in three rare species endemic to Florida rosemary scrub

Habitat conversion and fire suppression during the last 50 yr have greatly reduced and altered Florida scrub vegetation, resulting in threats to the persistence of its unique flora. As part of a larger conservation project, we investigated patterns of isozyme variation in three rare perennial scrub plants with overlapping ranges endemic to Florida rosemary scrub on the Lake Wales Ridge. All three species have low levels of genetic variation, comparable to or lower than those generally reported for rare plants with restricted geographic ranges. Liatris ohlingerae has more than twice the expected heterozygosity of the other two species, with little population differentiation. In contrast, Hypericum cumulicola has highly differentiated populations with little apparent interpopulation gene flow and heterozygote deficiencies indicative of inbreeding. Eryngium cuneifolium, the species with the narrowest range and fewest populations, has intermediate values for genetic parameters. Although the three species have narrow and overlapping geographic ranges and similar habitat specificity, we discuss how optimal conservation of each species differs

Genetic change following fire in populations of a seed-banking perennial plant

Disturbances such as fire have the potential to remove genetic variation, but seed banks may counter this loss by restoring alleles through a reservoir effect. We used allozyme analysis to characterize genetic change in two populations of the perennial Hypericum cumulicola, an endemic of the fire-prone Florida scrub. We assessed genetic variation before and 1, 2, and 3 years after fire that killed nearly all aboveground plants. Populations increased in size following fire, with most seedlings likely recruited from a persistent seed bank. Four of five loci were variable. Most alleles were present in low frequencies, but our large sample sizes allowed detection of significant trends. Expected heterozygosity increased, and allele presence and allele frequencies showed marked shifts following fire. The post-fire seedling cohort contained new alleles to the study and one new allele to the species. Population differentiation between the two study sites did not change. Our study is the first to directly documents genetic changes following fire, a dominant ecological disturbance worldwide, and is also one of the few to consider shifts in a naturally recruiting post-disturbance seedling cohort. We demonstrate the potential of seed banks to restore genetic variation lost between disturbances. Our study demonstrates that rapid genetic change can occur with disturbance and that fire can have positive effects on the genetics of rare species

Comparative genetics of seven plants endemic to Florida’s Lake Wales Ridge

Here we submit that mathematical tools used in population viability analysis can be used in conjunction with floristic and faunistic surveys to predict changes in biogeographic range. We illustrate our point by summarizing the results of a demographic study of Lobelia boykinii. In this study we used deterministic and stochastic matrix models to estimate the growth rate and to predict the time to extinction for three populations growing in the Carolina bays. The stochastic model better discriminated among the fates of the three populations. It predicted extinction for two populations in the next 25 years but no extinction of the third population for at least 50 years. Probability of extinction is likely correlated with hydrologic regime and fire frequency of the bay in which a population is found. The stochastic model could be combined with information about the geographic distribution of L. boykinii habitats to predict short-term biogeographic change

Genetic Variation in Past and Current Landscapes: Conservation Implications Based on Six Endemic Florida Scrub Plants

If genetic variation is often positively correlated with population sizes and the presence of nearby populations and suitable habitats, landscape proxies could inform conservation decisions without genetic analyses. For six Florida scrub endemic plants (Dicerandra frutescens, Eryngium cuneifolium, Hypericum cumulicola, Liatris ohlingerae, Nolina brittoniana, and Warea carteri), we relate two measures of genetic variation, expected heterozygosity and alleles per polymorphic locus (APL), to population size and landscape variables. Presettlement areas were estimated based on soil preferences and GIS soils maps. Four species showed no genetic patterns related to population or landscape factors. The other two species showed significant but inconsistent patterns. For Liatris ohlingerae, APL was negatively related to population density and weakly, positively related to remaining presettlement habitat within 32 km. For Nolina brittoniana, APL increased with population size. The rather weak effects of population area/size and both past and current landscape structures suggest that genetic variation needs to be directly measured and not inferred for conservation planning

Exploring population responses to environmental change when there is never enough data: a factor analytic approach

© 2018 The Authors. Methods in Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society Temporal variability in the environment drives variation in vital rates, with consequences for population dynamics and life-history evolution. Integral projection models (IPMs) are data-driven structured population models widely used to study population dynamics and life-history evolution in temporally variable environments. However, many datasets have insufficient temporal replication for the environmental drivers of vital rates to be identified with confidence, limiting their use for evaluating population level responses to environmental change. Parameter selection, where the kernel is constructed at each time step by randomly selecting the time-varying parameters from their joint probability distribution, is one approach to including stochasticity in IPMs. We consider a factor analytic (FA) approach for modelling the covariance matrix of time-varying parameters, whereby latent variable(s) describe the covariance among vital rate parameters. This decreases the number of parameters to estimate and, where the covariance is positive, the latent variable can be interpreted as a measure of environmental quality. We demonstrate this using simulation studies and two case studies. The simulation studies suggest the FA approach provides similarly accurate estimates of stochastic population growth rate to estimating an unstructured covariance matrix. We demonstrate how the latent parameter can be perturbed to show how selection on reproductive delays in the monocarp Carduus nutans changes under different environmental conditions. We develop a demographic model of the fire dependent herb Eryngium cuneifolium to show how a putative driver of the variation in environmental quality can be incorporated with the addition of a single parameter. Using perturbation analyses we determine optimal management strategies for this species. This approach estimates fewer parameters than previous approaches and allows novel eco-evolutionary insights. Predictions on population dynamics and life-history evolution under different environmental conditions can be made without necessarily identifying causal factors. Putative environmental drivers can be incorporated with relatively few parameters, allowing for predictions on how populations will respond to changes in the environment

Effects of Fire Intensity on Vital Rates of an Endemic Herb of the Florida Keys, USA

ABSTRACT: Fire intensity is one of the important components of a fire regime. However, relatively few studies have linked fire intensity with post-fire population vital rates. In this study, we explored the effects of fire intensity on population vital rates of Chamaecrista keyensis Pennell (Fabaceae) up to two years post-fire. C. keyensis is an endemic understory plant of pine rockland, a fire-dependent ecosystem of the Lower Florida Keys. We measured one fire intensity indicator, fire temperature reached by steel plates on the ground, during three prescribed fires at different sites. We followed marked individuals up to two years post-fire to derive annual survival, annual growth rate, percentage of fruiting plants, mean number of fruits per reproductive plant, and number of seedlings per census plot (1 m 2 ) of C. keyensis. We found fire intensity had significant effects on reproduction in the first year post-fire only. More specifically, mean number of fruits and percentage of fruiting plants increased as fire intensity increased. Results from this study suggest that extremely low fire intensity caused by very short fire return intervals (e.g., less than three years) may not provide sufficient stimulation to reproduction to achieve the best post-fire recovery for C. keyensis

Fine-scale spatial variation in fitness is comparable to disturbance-induced fluctuations in a fire-adapted species

The spatial scale at which demographic performance (e.g., net reproductive output) varies can profoundly influence landscape-level population growth and persistence, and many demographically pertinent processes such as species interactions and resource acquisition vary at fine scales. We compared the magnitude of demographic variation associated with fine-scale heterogeneity (1 ha) fluctuations associated with fire disturbance. We used a spatially explicit model within an IPM modeling framework to evaluate the demographic importance of fine-scale variation. We used a measure of expected lifetime fruit production, EF, that is assumed to be proportional to lifetime fitness. Demographic differences and their effects on EF were assessed in a population of the herbaceous perennial Hypericum cumulicola (~2,600 individuals), within a patch of Florida rosemary scrub (400 × 80 m). We compared demographic variation over fine spatial scales to demographic variation between years across 6 yr after a fire. Values of EF changed by orders of magnitude over <10 m. This variation in fitness over fine spatial scales (<10 m) is commensurate to postfire changes in fitness for this fire-adapted perennial. A life table response experiment indicated that fine-scale spatial variation in vital rates, especially survival, explains as much change in EF as demographic changes caused by time-since-fire, a key driver in this system. Our findings show that environmental changes over a few tens of meters can have ecologically meaningful implications for population growth and extinction