Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis

This paper studies the effects of FOMC forward guidance. We begin by using high frequency identification and direct measures of FOMC private information to show that puzzling responses of private sector forecasts to movements in federal funds futures rates on FOMC announcement days can be attributed entirely to Delphic forward guidance. However a large fraction of futures rates' variability on announcement days remains unexplained, leaving open the possibility that the FOMC has successfully communicated Odyssean guidance. We then examine whether the FOMC used Odyssean guidance to improve macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis. To this end we use an estimated medium-scale New Keynesian model to perform a counterfactual experiment for the period 2009q1{2014q4, in which we assume the FOMC did not employ any Odyssean guidance and instead followed its reaction function from before the crisis as closely as possible while respecting the effective lower bound. We find that a purely rule-based policy would have delivered a shallower recession and kept inflation closer to target in the years immediately following the crisis than FOMC forward guidance did in practice. However starting toward the end of 2011, after the Fed's introduction of "calendar-based" communications, the FOMC's Odyssean guidance appears to have boosted real activity and moved inflation closer to target. We show that our results do not reflect Del Negro, Giannoni, and Patterson (2015)'s forward guidance puzzle

Demystifying Governance and its Role for Transitions in Urban Social–Ecological Systems

Governance is key to sustainable urban transitions. Governance is a system of social, power, and decision‐making processes that acts as a key driver of resource allocation and use, yet ecologists—even urban ecologists–seldom consider governance concepts in their work. Transitions to more sustainable futures are becoming increasingly important to the management of many ecosystems and landscapes, and particularly so for urban systems. We briefly identify and synthesize important governance dimensions of urban sustainability transitions, using illustrations from cities in which long‐term social–ecological governance research is underway. This article concludes with a call to ecologists who are interested in environmental stewardship, and to urban ecologists in particular, to consider the role of governance as a driver in the dynamics of the systems they study

Exploratory Genome-Wide Association Analysis to Identify Pharmacogenetic Determinants of Response to R-CHOP in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

R-CHOP standard chemotherapy is successful in about 60% of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients. Unresponsive patients have a poor prognosis, and predictive biomarkers of response to R-CHOP are lacking. We conducted the first prospective GWAS study aimed at exploring constitutional biomarkers predictive of R-CHOP efficacy and toxicity. Overall, 216 any-stage chemonaive DLBCL patients candidate to R-CHOP were enrolled. The median age of the 185 eligible patients was 59.2 years, 49.7% were women and 45.4% were stage I-II patients. According to the Revised International Prognostic Index (R-IPI), 14.1%, 56.8% and 29.2% were in the very good, good and poor prognosis groups, respectively. Of the patients, 85.9% produced a complete response. Highly significant associations (i.e., p < 5 x 10(-8)) were found between progression-free survival (PFS) and six SNPs (i.e., rs116665727, rs1607795, rs75614943, rs77241831, rs117500207, rs78466241). Additionally, five SNPs (i.e., rs74832512, rs117500207, rs35789195, rs11721010, rs12356569) were highly associated with overall survival (OS). Wild-type patients showed a prolonged PFS or OS compared with patients carrying deleterious alleles (p < 0.001). No association with the adequate significant threshold was observed between SNPs and the objective response or toxicity. In the future, these SNPs, alone or in combination, after a proper validation in an independent cohort, could contribute to improving the prediction of R-CHOP response

Burying the 'refuse revolution': the rise of controlled tipping in Britain 1920-1960

The definitive, peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in Environment and Planning A, 42, 5, 1033-1048, 2010, 10.1068/a42120.This paper investigates the emergence of ‘controlled tipping’ as the dominant method of municipal waste disposal in Britain between 1920 and 1960. The triumph of controlled tipping, despite the availability of alternative disposal technologies, needs to be understood in the context of the contested meanings of ‘waste’ and ‘wasteland’, which helped to determine attitudes and approaches to disposal. Following the conclusion of the First World War there was an urgent requirement for a cheap means of disposing of increasing amounts of urban municipal waste. The obvious choice was tipping. Before the war, however, refuse tipping had been rejected as insanitary by the emerging waste disposal profession. Public cleansing professionals therefore had to recuperate tipping as a medically and environmentally benign mode of disposal that was reconcilable with the needs of sanitary science and landscape preservation. Controlled tipping, with its combined claims to scientific progress and the revalorization of refuse, enabled dumping to be successfully re-produced as the dominant mode of municipal refuse disposal in Britain. However, tipping faced further challenges after 1945 from changing popular understandings of the value of ‘derelict’ landscapes and from the politics of amenity. The ‘refuse revolution’ was a work in progress

The management of pediatric severe traumatic brain injury: Italian guidelines

Introduction: the aim of the work was to update the “guidelines for the Management of severe traumatic Brain Injury” published in 2012, to reflect the new available evidence, and develop the Italian national guideline for the management of severe pediatric head injuries to reduce variation in practice and ensure optimal care to patients. eViDeNce acQUisitioN: MeDliNe and eMBase were searched from January 2009 to october 2017. inclusion criteria were english language, pediatric populations (0-18 years) or mixed populations (pediatric/adult) with available age subgroup analyses. the guideline development process was started by the Promoting group that composed a multidisciplinary panel of experts, with the representatives of the Scientific Societies, the independent expert specialists and a representative of the Patient associations. the panel selected the clinical questions, discussed the evidence and formulated the text of the recommendations. the documentarists of the University of Florence oversaw the bibliographic research strategy. a group of literature reviewers evaluated the selected literature and compiled the table of evidence for each clinical question. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: The search strategies identified 4254 articles. We selected 3227 abstract (first screening) and, finally included 67 articles (second screening) to update the guideline. This Italian update includes 25 evidence-based recommendations and 5 research recommendations. coNclUsioNs: in recent years, progress has been made on the understanding of severe pediatric brain injury, as well as on that concerning all major traumatic pathology. this has led to a progressive improvement in the clinical outcome, although the quantity and quality of evidence remains particularly low

The Politics of Race and Class and the Changing Spatial Fortunes of the McCarren Pool in Brooklyn, New York, 1936-2010

This paper explores the changing spatial properties of the McCarren Pool and connects them to the politics of race and class. The pool was a large liberal government project that sought to improve the leisure time of working class Brooklynites and between 1936 and the early 1970s it was a quasi-public functional space. In the 1970s and the early 1980s, the pool became a quasi-public dysfunctional space because the city government reduced its maintenance and staffing levels. Working class whites of the area engaged into neighborhood defense in order to prevent the influx of Latinos and African Americans into parts of Williamsburg and Greenpoint and this included the environs of the McCarren Pool. The pool was shut down in 1983 because of a mechanical failure. Its restoration did not take place because residents and storekeepers near the vicinity of the pool complained that by the 1970s, it was only African Americans and Latinos who patronized the pool and that their presence in the neighborhood undermined white exclusivity. For two decades, the McCarren Pool became a multi-use alternative space frequented by homeless people, graffiti artists, heroin users, teenagers, and drug dealers. Unlike previous decades, during this period, people of various racial and ethnic backgrounds frequented the pool area in a relatively harmonious manner. In the early part of the twenty-first century, a neoliberal city administration allowed a corporation to organize music concerts in the pool premises and promised to restore the facility into an operable swimming pool. The problem with this restoration project is that the history of the pool between the early 1970s and the early 2000s is downplayed and this does not serve well former or future users of the poo

Methods for Computing Marginal Data Densities from the Gibbs Output

We introduce two new methods for estimating the Marginal Data Density (MDD) from the Gibbs output, which are based on exploiting the analytical tractability condition. Such a condition requires that some parameter blocks can be analytically integrated out from the conditional posterior densities. Our estimators are applicable to densely parameterized time series models such as VARs or DFMs. An empirical application to six-variate VAR models shows that the bias of a fully computational estimator is sufficiently large to distort the implied model rankings. One estimator is fast enough to make multiple computations of MDDs in densely parameterized models feasible

River histories : A thematic review

Peer reviewe