Changes in the mesoscale variability and in extreme sea levels over two decades as observed by satellite altimetry

A data set of precise radar altimeter sea surface heights obtained from the same 10-day repeat ground track has been analysed to determine the magnitude of change in the ocean ‘mesoscale’ variability over two decades. Trends in the standard deviation of sea surface height variability each year are found to be small (typically ~0.5 percent/yr) throughout the global ocean. Trends in positive and negative extreme sea level in each region are in general found to be similar to those of mean sea level, with some small regional exceptions. Generalised Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD) analysis also demonstrates that spatial variations in the statistics of extreme positive sea levels are determined largely by the corresponding spatial variations in mean sea level changes, and are related to regional modes of the climate system such as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation. Trends in the standard deviation of along-track sea level gradient variability are found to be close to zero on a global basis, with regional exceptions. Altogether our findings suggest an ocean mesoscale variability that displays little change when considered over an extended period of two decades, but that is superimposed on a spatially and temporally varying signal of mean sea level change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

A worldwide coastal analysis of the climate wave systems

Wind generated waves of a sea state are generally the result of the superposition of wind sea and swells, making the frequency-direction wave energy distribution crucial for comprehending this behavior. Wave spectral partitioning methods provide groups of waves with similar characteristics, thus they have been usually applied to identify wind sea and swell. In addition, several swells can coexist in a sea state. This study develops a method to estimate the wave systems and analyze their characteristics over the coast worldwide using 32year (1989-2020) historical information and more than 10.000 locations. A wave system is considered as the long-term climate conditions prevailing over a frequency-direction wave energy area collecting similar environmental and physical characteristics. The method is applied for the hourly time series of the directional wave spectra. First, the watershed clustering algorithm is used and the partitions found are classified as wind sea or swells based on a wave age criterion. The information obtained from the swell spectral partitions is then used to estimate the probability of their occurrence within specific frequency-direction bins and the clustering algorithm is applied anew to this population in order to identify the number of significant long-term climate wave systems locally and their characteristics. Outcomes reveal that on average swells coexist with wind sea in approximately 70% of the global coast, whereas about 25% is predominantly dominated by pure swells and the wind sea dominates only in the 5%. Only the 2% of the global coast line presents one swell wave system. About 50% of the global coastal locations exhibit three and four, whereas the 15% presents two swell wave systems. The analysis shows that about 30% of the coastal locations present at least five swell wave systems, mostly on Pacific islands and enclosed seas

Wave modeling uncertainty in global wave climate projections: assessment and quantification

Ocean wind waves are projected to changeover the twenty-first century under a warming climate. The standard approach to conduct these studies is based on wave climate projections. These products represent future wave climates, for different scenarios, developed using forcing drivers from global climate models (GCMs) or regional climate models (RCMs). Projected changes in wave climate are affected by multiple sources of uncertainty (see Figure): aleatoric uncertainty, socio-economic scenario uncertainty, uncertainty related to GCMs and the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave modeling

On the assessment of the wave modeling uncertainty in wave climate projections

This study investigates the epistemic uncertainty associated with the wave propagation modeling in wave climate projections. A single-forcing, single-scenario, seven-member global wave climate projection ensemble is used, developed using three wave models with a consistent numerical domain. The uncertainty is assessed through projected changes in wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The relative importance of the wave model used and its internal parameterization are examined. The former is the dominant source of uncertainty in approximately two-thirds of the global ocean. The study reveals divergences in projected changes from runs of different models and runs of the same model with different parameterizations over 75% of the ensemble mean change in several ocean regions. Projected changes in the wave period shows the most significant uncertainties, particularly in the Pacific Ocean basin, while the wave height shows the least. Over 30% of global coastlines exhibit significant uncertainties in at least two out of the three wave climate variables analyzed. The coasts of western North America, the Maritime Continent and the Arabian Sea show the most significant wave modeling uncertainties

Atmosphere-ocean linkages in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the early Pleistocene

Here we present a new set of high-resolution early Pleistocene records from the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP). Sediment composition from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1240 and 1238 is used to reconstruct past changes in the atmosphere-ocean system. Particularly remarkable is the presence of laminated diatom oozes (LDOs) during glacial periods between 1.85 and 2.25Ma coinciding with high fluxes of opal and total organic carbon. Relatively low lithic particles (coarse and poorly sorted) and iron fluxes during these glacial periods indicate that the increased diatom productivity did not result from dust-stimulated fertilization events. We argue that glacial fertilization occurred through the advection of nutrient-rich waters from the Southern Ocean. In contrast, glacial periods after 1.85Ma are characterized by enhanced dust transport of finer lithic particles acting as a new source of nutrients in the EEP. The benthic ecosystem shows dissimilar responses to the high productivity recorded during glacial periods before and after 1.85Ma, which suggests that the transport processes delivering organic matter to the deep sea also changed. Different depositional processes are interpreted to be the result of two distinct glacial positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Before 1.85Ma, the ITCZ was above the equator, with weak local winds and enhanced wet deposition of dust. After 1.85Ma, the glacial ITCZ was displaced northward, thus bringing stronger winds and stimulating upwelling in the EEP. The glacial period at 1.65Ma with the most intense LDOs supports a rapid southward migration of the ITCZ comparable to those glacial periods before 1.85Ma

Measuring currents, ice drift, and waves from space: the Sea Surface KInematics Multiscale monitoring (SKIM) concept

We propose a new satellite mission that uses a near-nadir Ka-band Doppler radar to measure surface currents, ice drift and ocean waves at spatial scales of 40?km and more, with snapshots at least every day for latitudes 75 to 82, and every few days otherwise. The use of incidence angles at 6 and 12 degrees allows a measurement of the directional wave spectrum which yields accurate corrections of the wave-induced bias in the current measurements. The instrument principle, algorithm for current velocity and mission performance are presented here. The proposed instrument can reveal features on tropical ocean and marginal ice zone dynamics that are inaccessible to other measurement systems, as well as a global monitoring of the ocean mesoscale that surpasses the capability of today?s nadir altimeters. Measuring ocean wave properties facilitates many applications, from wave-current interactions and air-sea fluxes to the transport and convergence of marine plastic debris and assessment of marine and coastal hazards

Wind speed variability over the Canary Islands, 1948-2014: focusing on trend differences at the land-ocean interface and below-above the trade-wind inversion layer

This study simultaneously examines wind speed trends at the land?ocean interface, and below?above the trade-wind inversion layer in the Canary Islands and the surrounding Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: a key region for quantifying the variability of trade-winds and its response to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Two homogenized data sources are used: (1) observed wind speed from nine land-based stations (1981?2014), including one mountain weather station (Izaña) located above the trade-wind inversion layer; and (2) simulated wind speed from two atmospheric hindcasts over ocean (i.e., SeaWind I at 30 km for 1948?2014; and SeaWind II at 15 km for 1989?2014). The results revealed a widespread significant negative trend of trade-winds over ocean for 1948?2014, whereas no significant trends were detected for 1989?2014. For this recent period wind speed over land and ocean displayed the same multi-decadal variability and a distinct seasonal trend pattern with a strengthening (late spring and summer; significant in May and August) and weakening (winter?spring?autumn; significant in April and September) of trade-winds. Above the inversion layer at Izaña, we found a predominance of significant positive trends, indicating a decoupled variability and opposite wind speed trends when compared to those reported in boundary layer. The analysis of the Trade Wind Index (TWI), the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the Eastern Atlantic Index (EAI) demonstrated significant correlations with the wind speed variability, revealing that the correlation patterns of the three indices showed a spatio-temporal complementarity in shaping wind speed trends across the Eastern North Atlantic.C. A. -M. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 703733 (STILLING project). This research was also supported by the Research Projects: Swedish BECC, MERGE, VR (2014–5320), PCIN-2015-220, CGL2014-52135-C03-01 and Red de variabilidad y cambio climático RECLIM (CGL2014-517221-REDT). M.M is indebted to the Spanish Government for funding through the “Ramón y Cajal” program and supported by Grant PORTIO (BIA2015-70644-R

Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios