Combining common genetic variants and non-genetic risk factors to predict risk of cutaneous melanoma

Melanoma heritability is among the highest for cancer and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contribute to it. To date, only SNPs that reached statistical significance in genome-wide association studies or few candidate SNPs have been included in melanoma risk prediction models. We compared four approaches for building polygenic risk scores (PRS) using 12,874 melanoma cases and 23,203 controls from Melanoma Meta-Analysis Consortium as a training set, and newly genotyped 3,102 cases and 2,301 controls from the MelaNostrum consortium for validation. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for melanoma risk using traditional melanoma risk factors and the PRS with the largest area under the Receiver Operator Characteristics curve (AUC). We estimated absolute risks combining the PRS and other risk factors, with age- and sex-specific melanoma incidence and competing mortality rates from Italy as an example. The best PRS, including 204 SNPs (AUC= 64.4%; 95% CI=63-65.8%), developed using winner's curse estimate corrections, had a per-quintile OR=1.35 (95% CI=1.30-1.41), corresponding to a 3.33-fold increase comparing the 5th to the 1st PRS quintile. The AUC improvement by adding the PRS was up to 7%, depending on adjusted factors and country. The 20-year absolute risk estimates based on the PRS, nevus count and pigmentation characteristics for a 60-year old Italian man ranged from 0.5% to 11.8% (RR=26.34), indicating good separation

Novel MAPK/AKT-impairing germline NRAS variant identified in a melanoma-prone family

While several high-penetrance melanoma risk genes are known, variation in these genes fail to explain melanoma susceptibility in a large proportion of high-risk families. As part of a melanoma family sequencing study, including 435 families from Mediterranean populations we identified a novel NRAS variant (c.170A > C, p.D57A) in an Italian melanoma-prone family. This variant is absent in exomes in gnomAD, ESP, UKBiobank, and the 1000 Genomes Project, as well as in 11,273 Mediterranean individuals and 109 melanoma-prone families from the US and Australia. This variant occurs in the GTP-binding pocket of NRAS. Differently from other RAS activating alterations, NRAS D57A expression is unable to activate MAPK-pathway both constitutively and after stimulation but enhances EGF-induced PI3K-pathway signaling in serum starved conditions in vitro. Consistent with in vitro data demonstrating that NRAS D57A does not enrich GTP binding, molecular modeling suggests that the D57A substitution would be expected to impair Mg2 + binding and decrease nucleotide-binding and GTPase activity of NRAS. While we cannot firmly establish NRAS c.170A > C (p.D57A) as a melanoma susceptibility variant, further investigation of NRAS as a familial melanoma gene is warranted

Genome-wide association meta-analyses combining multiple risk phenotypes provide insights into the genetic architecture of cutaneous melanoma susceptibility

Most genetic susceptibility to cutaneous melanoma remains to be discovered. Meta-analysis genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 36,760 cases of melanoma (67% newly genotyped) and 375,188 controls identified 54 significant (P < 5 × 10−8) loci with 68 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms. Analysis of risk estimates across geographical regions and host factors suggests the acral melanoma subtype is uniquely unrelated to pigmentation. Combining this meta-analysis with GWAS of nevus count and hair color, and transcriptome association approaches, uncovered 31 potential secondary loci for a total of 85 cutaneous melanoma susceptibility loci. These findings provide insights into cutaneous melanoma genetic architecture, reinforcing the importance of nevogenesis, pigmentation and telomere maintenance, together with identifying potential new pathways for cutaneous melanoma pathogenesis