Probabilistic Measures of Coherence

Het onderwerp van dit proefschrift bevindt zich op het raakvlak van kennisleer en wetenschapsfilosofie. Meer in het bijzonder staat het geven van een precieze analyse van onze intuïtieve notie van coherentie centraal. Er wordt in de wetenschapsfilosofie veel gesproken over de coherentie van een theorie en over de vraag of coherentie in het algemeen een indicator van waarheid kan zijn. Echter, een veel gehoorde klacht in deze discussies is dat het begrip coherentie hopeloos vaag is. In de laatste jaren zijn er een aantal voorstellen gedaan voor een formele explicatie van het begrip coherentie. In het eerste hoofdstruk van dit proefschrift benadruk ik dat dit concept op verschillende intuïties berust en dat we niet uit kunnen sluiten dat elk van deze intuïtieve concepten op verschillende wijze geformaliseerd dient te worden. Ik onderscheid (zonder te willen beweren dat dit de enige of zelfsde belangrijkste noties van coherentie zijn )drie verschillende betekenissen van het begrip coherentie zoals dit in de wetenschapsfilosofie gebruikt is. Deze zijn coherentie als een epistemische deugd, coherentie als een waarheids-bevorderende eigenschap en coherentie als een relatie tussen theorie en evidentie

Generating expressive speech for storytelling applications

Work on expressive speech synthesis has long focused on the expression of basic emotions. In recent years, however, interest in other expressive styles has been increasing. The research presented in this paper aims at the generation of a storytelling speaking style, which is suitable for storytelling applications and more in general, for applications aimed at children. Based on an analysis of human storytellers' speech, we designed and implemented a set of prosodic rules for converting "neutral" speech, as produced by a text-to-speech system, into storytelling speech. An evaluation of our storytelling speech generation system showed encouraging results

A clinical prediction rule for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease: validation, updating, and extension

Aims The aim was to validate, update, and extend the Diamond-Forrester model for estimating the probability of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in a contemporary cohort. Methods and results Prospectively collected data from 14 hospitals on patients with chest pain without a history of CAD and referred for conventional coronary angiography (CCA) were used. Primary outcome was obstructive CAD, defined as ≥50% stenosis in one or more vessels on CCA. The validity of the Diamond-Forrester model was assessed using calibration plots, calibration-in-the-large, and recalibration in logistic regression. The model was subsequently updated and extended by revising the predictive value of age, sex, and type of chest pain. Diagnostic performance was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (c-statistic) and reclassification was determined. We included 2260 patients, of whom 1319 had obstructive CAD on CCA. Validation demonstrated an overestimation of the CAD probability, especially in women. The updated and extended models demonstrated a c-statistic of 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.81) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.80-0.84), respectively. Sixteen per cent of men and 64% of women were correctly reclassified. The predicted probability of obstructive CAD ranged from 10% for 50-year-old females with non-specific chest pain to 91% for 80-year-old males with typical chest pain. Predictions varied across hospitals due to differences in disease prevalence. Conclusion Our results suggest that the Diamond-Forrester model overestimates the probability of CAD especially in women. We updated the predictive effects of age, sex, type of chest pain, and hospital setting which improved model performance and we extended it to include patients of 70 years and olde

Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in adult patients with repaired aortic coarctation

BACKGROUND: The long‐term burden of cardiovascular disease after repair of coarctation of the aorta (CoA) has not been elucidated. We aimed to determine the incidence of and risk factors for cardiovascular events in adult patients with repaired CoA. Additionally, mortality rates were compared between adults with repaired CoA and the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the Dutch Congenital Corvitia (CONCOR) registry, patients aged ≥16 years with previous surgical or transcatheter CoA repair from 5 tertiary referral centers were included. Cardiovascular events were recorded, comprising coronary artery disease, stroke/transient ischemic attack, aortic complications, arrhythmias, heart failure hospitalizations, endocarditis, and cardiovascular death. In total, 920 patients (median age, 24 years [range 16–74 years]) were included. After a mean follow‐up of 9.3±5.1 years, 191 patients (21%) experienced at least 1 cardiovascular event. A total of 270 cardiovascular events occurred, of which aortic complications and arrhythmias were most frequent. Older age at initial CoA repair (hazard ratio [HR], 1.017; 95% CI, 1.000–1.033 [P=0.048]) and elevated left ventricular mass index (HR, 1.009; 95% CI, 1.005–1.013 [P<0.001]) were independently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. The mortality rate was 3.3 times higher than expected based on an age‐ and sex‐matched cohort from the Dutch general population (standardized mortality ratio, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.3–4.4 [P<0.001]). CONCLUSIONS: This large, prospective cohort of adults with repaired CoA showed a high burden of cardiovascular events, particularly aortic complications and arrhythmias, during long‐term follow‐up. Older age at initial CoA repair and elevated left ventricular mass index were independent risk factors for the occurrence of cardiovascular events. Mortality was 3.3‐fold higher compared with the general population. These results advocate stringent follow‐up after CoA repair and emphasize the need for improved preventive strategies

Hypertensive response to exercise in adult patients with repaired aortic coarctation

OBJECTIVE: The clinical and prognostic implications of a hypertensive response to exercise after repair of coarctation of the aorta (CoA) remain controversial. We aimed to determine the prevalence of a hypertensive response to exercise, identify factors associated with peak exercise systolic blood pressure (SBP) and explore the association of peak exercise SBP with resting blood pressure and cardiovascular events during follow-up. METHODS: From the Dutch national CONgenital CORvitia (CONCOR) registry, adults with repaired CoA who underwent exercise stress testing were included. A hypertensive response to exercise was defined as a peak exercise SBP ≥210 mm Hg in men and ≥190 mm Hg in women. Cardiovascular events consisted of coronary artery disease, stroke, aortic complications and cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of the original cohort of 920 adults with repaired CoA, 675 patients (median age 24 years (range 16-72 years)) underwent exercise stress testing. Of these, 299 patients (44%) had a hypertensive response to exercise. Mean follow-up duration was 10.1 years. Male sex, absence of a bicuspid aortic valve and elevated resting SBP were independently associated with increased peak exercise SBP. Peak exercise SBP was positively predictive of office SBP (β=0.11, p<0.001) and 24-hour SBP (β=0.05, p=0.03) at follow-up, despite correction for baseline SBP. During follow-up, 100 patients (15%) developed at least 1 cardiovascular event. Peak exercise SBP was not significantly associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular events (HR 0.994 (95% CI 0.987 to 1.001), p=0.11). CONCLUSIONS: A hypertensive response to exercise was present in nearly half of the patients in this large, prospective cohort of adults with repaired CoA. Risk factors for increased peak exercise SBP were male sex, absence of a bicuspid aortic valve and elevated resting SBP. Increased peak exercise SBP independently predicted hypertension at follow-up. These results support close follow-up of patients with a hypertensive response to exercise to ensure timely diagnosis and treatment of future hypertension

Is there a role for CT coronary angiography in patients with symptomatic angina? Effect of coronary calcium score on identification of stenosis

Present guidelines discourage the use of CT coronary angiography (CTCA) in symptomatic angina patients. We examined the relation between coronary calcium score (CS) and the performance of CTCA in patients with stable and unstable angina in order to understand under which conditions CTCA might be a gate-keeper to conventional coronary angiography (CCA) in such patients. We included 360 patients between 50 and 70 years old with stable and unstable angina who were clinically referred for CCA irrespective of CS. Patients received CS and CCTA on 64-slice scanners in a multicenter cross-sectional trial. The institutional review board approved the study. Diagnostic performance of CTCA to detect or rule out significant coronary artery disease was calculated on a per patient level in pre-defined CS categories. The prevalence of significant coronary artery disease strongly increased with CS. Negative CTCA were associated with a negative likelihood ratio of <0.1 independent of CS. Positive CTCA was associated with a high positive likelihood ratio of 9.4 if CS was <10. However, for higher CS the positive likelihood ratio never exceeded 3.0 and for CS >400 it decreased to 1.3. In the 62 (17%) patients with CS <10, CTCA reliably identified the 42 (68%) of these patients without significant CAD, at no false negative CTCA scans. In symptomatic angina patients, a negative CTCA reliably excludes significant CAD but the additional value of CTCA decreases sharply with CS >10 and especially with CS >400. In patients with CS <10, CTCA provides excellent diagnostic performance

Diferencias intra e inter individuales en inteligencia social de estudiantes portugueses

Social intelligence is a favorable condition for career decision-making and development. The social intelligence indices of Portuguese students in school years prior to a career transition are characterized and intra and interindividual differences are analyzed. Participants were 1095 students (552, 50.4% women) with a mean age of 14.78 years (SD = 1.86), in the 8th (542, 49.5%), 10th (295, 26.9%) and 11th (258, 23.6%) grades. The Cognitive Test of Social Intelligence (PCIS) was administered at two moments, six months apart. Results indicate that the 8th grade obtained higher average scores in Problem Solving, Motivation and Self-confidence (time 1), while the 10th grade obtained better results in Problem Solving, Motivation and Familiarity (time 2). Between the assessment moments, all school years register an increase in Problem Solving and Self-confidence in social situations. These results constitute favorable psychological conditions for the promotion of ethical questioning in career guidance interventions.A inteligência social constitui uma condição favorável à tomada de decisão e ao desenvolvimento vocacional. Este trabalho visa caracterizar os níveis de inteligência social, e analisar as diferenças intra e interindividuais, em alunos portugueses em anos de pré-transição vocacional. Participaram 1095 alunos (552, 50% mulheres), com uma média de idades de 14,78 anos (DP = 1,86), do 8º, 10º, e 11º níveis escolares. Administrou-se a Prova Cognitiva de Inteligência Social (PCIS), em dois momentos (T1 e T2), com seis meses de intervalo. Os resultados indicam que o 8º ano obteve resultados médios superiores, nos índices de Resolução de Problemas, Motivação e Autoconfiança (T1), enquanto o 10º ano obteve resultados superiores, em Resolução de Problemas, Motivação e Familiaridade (T2). Entre momentos de avaliação, registra-se, para todos os níveis escolares, um aumento em Resolução de Problemas e Autoconfiança em situações sociais. Estes resultados constituem condições psicológicas favoráveis à promoção do questionamento ético nas intervenções de orientação vocacional.La inteligencia social es una condición favorable para la toma de decisiones y el desarrollo de la carrera. Se caracterizan los niveles de inteligencia social y sus diferencias intra e interindividuales en estudiantes portugueses en transición pre-profesional. Participaron 1095 estudiantes (552, 50.4% mujeres) con una edad media de 14.78 (DE = 1.86), del 8º (542, 49,5%), 10º (295, 26.9%) y 11º (258, 23.6%) años escolares. Se administró la Prueba Cognitiva de Inteligencia Social (PCIS) en dos ocasiones, con seis meses de diferencia. Los resultados indican que los estudiantes del 8º grado obtuvieron puntajes medios más altos en la Resolución de Problemas, Motivación y Confianza (T1), mientras que los del 10º grado obtuvieron mejores resultados en la Resolución de Problemas, Motivación y Familiaridad (T2). Entre momentos de evaluación se registra, para todos los años, un aumento en la Resolución de Problemas y Confianza en situaciones sociales. Estos resultados constituyen condiciones psicológicas favorables a la promoción del cuestionamiento ético en las intervenciones de orientación profesional.Project coordinated by the fourth author and co-funded by the Foundation for Science and Technology and the Compete Program - PTDC/CPE-CED/098896/200

The nonprofit case for corporate volunteering: a multi-level perspective

This article argues that the nonprofit case for corporate volunteering is complex, requiring a multi-level perspective on the outcomes for nonprofit organizations (NPOs). To develop this perspective, we adopted an inductive research approach, conducting 39 exploratory semi-structured interviews with NPO staff. We argue that NPO scholars and practitioners should disentangle individual and organizational-level outcomes resulting from interactions between corporate volunteers and NPO staff, as such micro-dynamics ultimately affect NPO services. Moreover, these outcomes are subject to conditions at the organizational level (e.g. involvement of intermediaries), as well as at the individual level (e.g. type of assignment). Our study highlights the complexity that should be considered when addressing the fundamental question of whether corporate volunteering contributes to the ability of NPOs to provide their services, and under what conditions. We therefore propose that corporate volunteer management within NPOs is inherently, albeit contingently, intertwined with the services that these organizations provide