Patients' attitudes to risk in lung cancer surgery: a qualitative study

Objectives Lung cancer surgery leads to long term survival for some patients but little is known about how patients decide whether to accept the associated surgical risks. The objective of this qualitative study was to explore patients’ attitudes to the risks associated with lung cancer surgery. Methods Fifteen patients with resectable lung cancer, recruited via multi-disciplinary team meetings at an English tertiary referral centre, participated in semi-structured interviews to explore their attitudes to the morbidity and mortality risks associated with lung cancer surgery. Transcripts were analysed using the framework method. Results Participants reported being ‘pleased’ to hear that they were suitable for surgery and felt that surgery was not a treatment to be turned down because they did not see any alternatives. Participants had some knowledge of perioperative risks, including mortality estimates; however, many voiced a preference not to know these risks and to let the medical team decide their treatment plan. Some found it difficult to relate the potential risks and complications of surgery to their own situation and appeared willing to accept high perioperative mortality risks. Generally, participants were willing to accept quite severe long-term postoperative breathlessness; however, it was apparent that many actually found this possibility difficult to imagine. Conclusion Patients do not necessarily wish to know details of risks associated with lung cancer surgery and may wish to defer decisions about treatment to their medical team. Investment in the doctor-patient relationship, particularly for the surgeon, is therefore important in the management of patients with lung cancer

A vine copula mixed effect model for trivariate meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies accounting for disease prevalence

A bivariate copula mixed model has been recently proposed to synthesize diagnostic test accuracy studies and it has been shown that it is superior to the standard generalized linear mixed model in this context. Here, we call trivariate vine copulas to extend the bivariate meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies by accounting for disease prevalence. Our vine copula mixed model includes the trivariate generalized linear mixed model as a special case and can also operate on the original scale of sensitivity, specificity, and disease prevalence. Our general methodology is illustrated by re-analyzing the data of two published meta-analyses. Our study suggests that there can be an improvement on trivariate generalized linear mixed model in fit to data and makes the argument for moving to vine copula random effects models especially because of their richness, including reflection asymmetric tail dependence, and computational feasibility despite their three dimensionality

Impact of race pace on development of hyponatraemia in full- and half-marathoners

Objective. Prior studies of full-marathon participants have demonstrated a higher incidence of hyponatraemia in runners with completion times of 4 hours or more. Our primary aim was to determine if slower pace is associated with increased prevalence of hyponatraemia. Secondly, we evaluated the prevalence of hyponatraemia in full-marathoners v. halfmarathoners.Methods. This observational, cross-sectional study comprised consenting runners in the 26.2 With Donna, The National Marathon to Finish Breast Cancer, in Jacksonville Beach, Florida, February 2008. On race day, participants completed a questionnaire, provided finger-stick blood samples, and were weighed both pre- and post-race.Results. A significant negative association was found between pace and post-race sodium level (p<0.001). A negative correlation was found between finishing time and post-race sodium level (p<0.001). The prevalence of post-race hyponatraemia was 4% (4/106) among half-marathoners and 13% (12/89) among full-marathoners (P=0.02). An inverse correlation was found between sodium change and weight change, significant in fullmarathoners (r=-0.55, p<0.001) but not half-marathoners (r=- 0.23, p=0.042).Conclusions. Slower race pace and longer finishing times were associated with lower post-race sodium levels. Full-marathoners had a significantly higher prevalence of hyponatraemia. The development of hyponatraemia was associated with weight gain. Our data indicate that the relationship between post-race sodium concentration and pace differs according to the distance of the event. We can extrapolate from this data that longer racedistance with increased availability of fluid stations combined with a slower pace may increase the risk of developing exerciseinduced hyponatraemia

DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN Nocardia spp. AND Mycobacterium spp.: CRITICAL ASPECTS FOR BACTERIOLOGICAL DIAGNOSIS

New methodologies were developed for the identification of Nocardia but the initial diagnosis still requires a fast and accurate method, mainly due to the similarity to Mycobacterium, both clinical and bacteriologically. Growth on Löwenstein-Jensen (LJ) medium, presence of acid-fast bacilli through Ziehl-Neelsen staining, and colony morphology can be confusing aspects between Nocardia and Mycobacterium. This study describes the occurrence of Nocardia spp. in a mycobacterial-reference laboratory, observing the main difficulties in differentiating Nocardia spp. from Mycobacterium spp., and correlating isolates with nocardiosis cases. Laboratory records for the period between 2008 and 2012 were analyzed, and the isolates identified as Nocardia sp. or as non-acid-fast filamentous bacilli were selected. Epidemiological and bacteriological data were analyzed as well. Thirty-three isolates identified as Nocardia sp. and 22 as non-acid-fast bacilli were selected for this study, and represented 0.12% of isolates during the study period. The presumptive identification was based on macroscopic and microscopic morphology, resistance to lysozyme and restriction profiles using the PRA-hsp65 method. Nocardia spp. can grow on media for mycobacteria isolation (LJ and BBL MGIT™) and microscopy and colony morphology are very similar to some mycobacteria species. Seventeen patients (54.8%) were reported and treated for tuberculosis, but presented signs and symptoms of nocardiosis. It was concluded that the occurrence of Nocardia sp. during the study period was 0.12%. Isolates with characteristics of filamentous bacilli, forming aerial hyphae, with colonies that may be pigmented, rough and without the BstEII digestion pattern in PRA-hsp65 method are suggestive of Nocardia spp. For a mycobacterial routine laboratory, a flow for the presumptive identification of Nocardia is essential, allowing the use of more accurate techniques for the correct identification, proper treatment and better quality of life for patients

Muscle fiber conduction velocity is more affected after eccentric than concentric exercise

It has been shown that mean muscle fiber conduction velocity (CV) can be acutely impaired after eccentric exercise. However, it is not known whether this applies to other exercise modes. Therefore, the purpose of this experiment was to compare the effects of eccentric and concentric exercises on CV, and amplitude and frequency content of surface electromyography (sEMG) signals up to 24 h post-exercise. Multichannel sEMG signals were recorded from biceps brachii muscle of the exercised arm during isometric maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) and electrically evoked contractions induced by motor-point stimulation before, immediately after and 2 h after maximal eccentric (ECC group, N = 12) and concentric (CON group, N = 12) elbow flexor exercises. Isometric MVC decreased in CON by 21.7 ± 12.0% (± SD, p < 0.01) and by 30.0 ± 17.7% (p < 0.001) in ECC immediately post-exercise when compared to baseline. At 2 h post-exercise, ECC showed a reduction in isometric MVC by 24.7 ± 13.7% (p < 0.01) when compared to baseline, while no significant reduction (by 8.0 ± 17.0%, ns) was observed in CON. Similarly, reduction in CV was observed only in ECC both during the isometric MVC (from baseline of 4.16 ± 0.3 to 3.43 ± 0.4 m/s, p < 0.001) and the electrically evoked contractions (from baseline of 4.33 ± 0.4 to 3.82 ± 0.3 m/s, p < 0.001). In conclusion, eccentric exercise can induce a greater and more prolonged reduction in muscle force production capability and CV than concentric exercis

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

Background Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men) and 35.6% (women) of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas. Background: Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods. We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results: Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas - accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men) and 35.6% (women) of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men - accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively - and only smoking contributing to the difference in women - accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions: These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas

Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

Background: Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting. Findings. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers. Conclusions: Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk