The Asian Financial Crisis: Effects on U.S. Agriculture

Abstract This paper analyzes the likely effects of the recent Asian financial crisis on the U.S. economy and agriculture. It uses a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium model, with endogenously modeled financial markets (G-cubed agriculture). Two simulations are done: one in which the crisis is confined to Korea and Southeast Asia, where the problem was most acute as of the fall of 1998, and another in which the crisis is assumed to deepen in Japan, China, and Taiwan to the same extent as it already has in Korea and Southeast Asia. The results show that the Asian financial crisis has a number of offsetting effects on U.S. agriculture. U.S. exports of agricultural and food products fall in response to declining demand in the affected countries in Asia and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. U.S. agricultural and food exports are estimated to decline three times as much when Japan, China, and Taiwan become embroiled in the crisis than when it is confined to Korea and Southeast Asia. On the other hand, adjustments in global capital and energy markets in both scenarios reduce capital costs and input prices faced by U.S. farmers and, more broadly, stimulate domestic U.S. economic activity in the short run, particularly in interest-sensitive and energy-intensive sectors. Thus the shortrun effects of the Asian crisis on U.S. agriculture are ambiguous. Sectors relying more on domestic demand, such as livestock products and processed food, expand output, while export-oriented sectors such as food grains are negatively affected

Demographic and health factors associated with pandemic anxiety in the context of COVID-19

Objectives. The mental health consequences of COVID-19 are predicted to have a disproportionate impact on certain groups. We aimed to develop a brief measure, the Pandemic Anxiety Scale, to capture the specific aspects of the pandemic that are provoking anxiety, and explore how these vary by health and demographic factors. Design. Data were from a convenience sample of parents (N = 4,793) and adolescents (N = 698) recruited in the first 6 weeks of lockdown. Methods. Factor analytic and IRT methods were used to validate the new measure in both parent and adolescent samples. Associations between scores on the new measure and age, gender, household income, and physical health status were explored using structural equation modelling (SEM). Results. Two factors were identified in both samples: disease anxiety (e.g., catching, transmitting the virus) and consequence anxiety (e.g., impact on economic prospects); and unique associations with health and demographic factors were observed. Conclusions. Anxieties due to the COVID-19 are multifaceted, and the PAS is a short, reliable, and valid measure of these concerns. These anxieties are differentially associated with demographic, social, and health factors, which should be considered when developing strategies to mitigate the mental health impact of the pandemic

Reconstructing Climate Policy: How Best to Engage China and Other Developing Countries?

Duke University organized the International Conference on Reconstructing Climate Policy: Moving Beyond the Kyoto Impasse, May 2003. The organizer invited me to specifically address the following two issues at the conference: 1) Whether is the proposal for joint accession by the U.S. and China in the interest of China?, and 2) Even if participating a global cap-and-trade regime is so beneficial to China as many economic studies suggest, why has China consistently refused in international negotiations even to discuss its participation in it?. In this paper, we look at the first issue from the following perspectives: a) how does China value importance of maintaining unity of the Group of 77?; b) what lessons has China learned from bilateral negotiations with the U.S. to work out the terms for China to get accession to the WTO?; c) what is the legitimacy of the U.S. insistence that it re-joins the Kyoto Protocol only if major developing countries join?; d) what are implications of the U.S. strikingly reversed position on the commitments of developing countries in New Delhi for initiating discussions on joint accession by the U.S. and China?; and e) how would joint accession by the U.S. and China be perceived?. We then address the second issue from the following perspectives: a) from the point of view of fairness, how do developing countries including China and India perceive emissions caps in the first place?; b) why have China and India been sceptical to international emissions trading?; c) how is an inflow of CDM investment in China perceived politically in comparison with the exports of emissions permits to the U.S.?; d) what are the implications of “lock in” to emissions cap, in particular no rules and principles for setting emissions targets for the commitment periods subsequent to Kyoto?; e) how to address the complex undertaking of setting emissions caps for developing countries, which must be linked to future, unobserved levels in comparison with the historically observed levels for industrialized countries?. Finally, the paper touches on the likely path forward

Determining the Electronic Confinement of a Subsurface Metallic State

Dopant profiles in semiconductors are important for understanding nanoscale electronics. Highly conductive and extremely confined phosphorus doping profiles in silicon, known as Si:P δ-layers, are of particular interest for quantum computer applications, yet a quantitative measure of their electronic profile has been lacking. Using resonantly enhanced photoemission spectroscopy, we reveal the real-space breadth of the Si:P δ-layer occupied states and gain a rare view into the nature of the confined orbitals. We find that the occupied valley-split states of the δ-layer, the so-called 1Γ and 2Γ, are exceptionally confined with an electronic profile of a mere 0.40 to 0.52 nm at full width at half-maximum, a result that is in excellent agreement with density functional theory calculations. Furthermore, the bulk-like Si 3pz orbital from which the occupied states are derived is sufficiently confined to lose most of its pz-like character, explaining the strikingly large valley splitting observed for the 1Γ and 2Γ states

A missense variant in CST3 exerts a recessive effect on susceptibility to age-related macular degeneration resembling its association with Alzheimer’s disease

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are degenerative, multifactorial diseases involving age-related accumulation of extracellular deposits linked to dysregulation of protein homeostasis. Here, we strengthen the evidence that an nsSNP (p.Ala25Thr) in the cysteine proteinase inhibitor cystatin C gene CST3, previously confirmed by meta-analysis to be associated with AD, is associated with exudative AMD. To our knowledge, this is the first report highlighting a genetic variant that increases the risk of developing both AD and AMD. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the risk associated with the mutant allele follows a recessive model for both diseases. We perform an AMD-CST3 case–control study genotyping 350 exudative AMD Caucasian individuals. Bringing together our data with the previously reported AMD-CST3 association study, the evidence of a recessive effect on AMD risk is strengthened (OR = 1.89, P = 0.005). This effect closely resembles the AD-CST3 recessive effect (OR = 1.73, P = 0.005) previously established by meta-analysis. This resemblance is substantiated by the high correlation between CST3 genotype and effect size across the two diseases (R2 = 0.978). A recessive effect is in line with the known function of cystatin C, a potent enzyme inhibitor. Its potency means that, in heterozygous individuals, a single functional allele is sufficient to maintain its inhibitory function; only homozygous individuals will lack this form of proteolytic regulation. Our findings support the hypothesis that recessively acting variants account for some of the missing heritability of multifactorial diseases. Replacement therapy represents a translational opportunity for individuals homozygous for the mutant allele

Why Has China not Embraced a Global Cap-and-Trade Regime?

Many economic studies suggest that China would reap significant benefits from participating in a global cap-and-trade regime. The question then is that even if such a regime is so beneficial to China, why China has consistently refused in international negotiations even to discuss its participation in it. In this paper, we look at this issue from the following perspectives: a) from the point of view of fairness, how do developing countries including China and India perceive emissions caps in the first place?; b) why have China and India been sceptical to international emissions trading?; c) how is an inflow of CDM investment in China perceived politically in comparison with the exports of emissions permits to the U.S.?; d) what are the implications of “lock in” to emissions cap, in particular no rules and principles for setting emissions targets for the commitment periods subsequent to Kyoto?; e) how to address the complex undertaking of setting emissions caps for developing countries, which must be linked to future, unobserved levels in comparison with the historically observed levels for industrialized countries?. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to analyse why China has not embraced an international greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme, thus pointing out efforts/directions towards getting the country into such a scheme. Thus, the paper is of significant policy relevance

New Role, New Country: introducing US physician assistants to Scotland

This paper draws from research commissioned by the Scottish Executive Health Department (SEHD). It provides a case study in the introduction of a new health care worker role into an already well established and "mature" workforce configuration It assesses the role of US style physician assistants (PAs), as a precursor to planned "piloting" of the PA role within the National Health Service (NHS) in Scotland