When Did HIV Incidence Peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-Calculation from Mortality Statistics

HIV prevalence has recently begun to decline in Zimbabwe, a result of both high levels of AIDS mortality and a reduction in incident infections. An important component in understanding the dynamics in HIV prevalence is knowledge of past trends in incidence, such as when incidence peaked and at what level. However, empirical measurements of incidence over an extended time period are not available from Zimbabwe or elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Using mortality data, we use a back-calculation technique to reconstruct historic trends in incidence. From AIDS mortality data, extracted from death registration in Harare, together with an estimate of survival post-infection, HIV incidence trends were reconstructed that would give rise to the observed patterns of AIDS mortality. Models were fitted assuming three parametric forms of the incidence curve and under nine different assumptions regarding combinations of trends in non-AIDS mortality and patterns of survival post-infection with HIV. HIV prevalence was forward-projected from the fitted incidence and mortality curves. Models that constrained the incidence pattern to a cubic spline function were flexible and produced well-fitting, realistic patterns of incidence. In models assuming constant levels of non-AIDS mortality, annual incidence peaked between 4 and 5% between 1988 and 1990. Under other assumptions the peak level ranged from 3 to 8% per annum. However, scenarios assuming increasing levels of non-AIDS mortality resulted in implausibly low estimates of peak prevalence (11%), whereas models with decreasing underlying crude mortality could be consistent with the prevalence and mortality data. HIV incidence is most likely to have peaked in Harare between 1988 and 1990, which may have preceded the peak elsewhere in Zimbabwe. This finding, considered alongside the timing and location of HIV prevention activities, will give insight into the decline of HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe

Levetiracetam add-on for drug-resistant focal epilepsy.

BackgroundDrug resistance is common in focal epilepsy. In this update, we summarised the current evidence regarding add-on levetiracetam in treating drug-resistant focal epilepsy. The original review was published in 2001 and last updated in 2012.ObjectivesTo evaluate the effectiveness of levetiracetam when used as an add-on treatment for people with drug-resistant focal epilepsy.Search methodsWe searched the Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web, which includes the Cochrane Epilepsy Group Specialized Register and CENTRAL), MEDLINE Ovid, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) to November 2018. We contacted the manufacturers of levetiracetam and researchers in the field to seek any ongoing or unpublished trials.Selection criteriaRandomised, placebo-controlled trials of add-on levetiracetam treatment in people with drug-resistant focal epilepsy.Data collection and analysisTwo review authors independently selected trials for inclusion, assessed trials for bias, extracted data, and evaluated the overall certainty of the evidence. Outcomes investigated included 50% or greater reduction in focal seizure frequency (response), treatment withdrawal, adverse effects (including a specific analysis of changes in behaviour), cognitive effects, and quality of life (QoL). Primary analysis was intention-to-treat. We performed meta-analysis for all outcomes using a Mantel-Haenszel approach and calculated risk ratios (RR), with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all estimates apart from adverse effects (99% CIs). We assessed heterogeneity using a Chi² test and the I² statistic.Main resultsThis update included 14 trials (2455 participants), predominantly possessing low risks of bias. Participants were adults in 12 trials (2159 participants) and children in the remaining two (296 participants). The doses of levetiracetam tested were 500 mg/day to 4000 mg/day in adults, and 60 mg/kg/day in children. Treatment ranged from 12 to 24 weeks. When individual doses were examined, levetiracetam at either 500 mg/day or 4000 mg/day did not perform better than placebo for the 50% or greater reduction in seizure frequency outcome (500 mg: RR 1.60, 95% CI 0.71 to 3.62; P = 0.26; 4000 mg: RR 1.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 4.57; P = 0.34). Levetiracetam was significantly better than placebo at all other individual doses (1000 mg to 3000 mg). RR was significantly in favour of levetiracetam compared to placebo when results were pooled across all doses (RR 2.37, 95% CI 2.02 to 2.78; 14 studies, 2455 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Dose-response analysis demonstrated that the odds of achieving response (50% or greater reduction in seizure frequency) were increased by nearly 40% (odds ratio (OR) 1.39, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.58) for each 1000 mg increase in dose of levetiracetam. There were important levels of heterogeneity across multiple comparisons. Participants were not significantly more likely to experience treatment withdrawal with levetiracetam than with placebo (pooled RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.40; 13 studies, 2428 participants; high-certainty evidence). Somnolence was the most common adverse effect, affecting 13% of participants, and it was significantly associated with levetiracetam compared to placebo (pooled RR 1.62, 99% CI 1.19 to 2.20; 13 studies, 2423 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Changes in behaviour were negligible in adults (1% affected; RR 1.79, 99% CI 0.59 to 5.41), but significant in children (23% affected; RR 1.90, 99% CI 1.16 to 3.11). Levetiracetam had a positive effect on some aspects of cognition and QoL in adults and worsened certain aspects of child behaviour.Authors' conclusionsOverall, this review update finds that in both adults and children with drug-resistant focal epilepsy, levetiracetam added on to usual care is more effective than placebo at reducing seizure frequency, it is unlikely to be stopped by patients, and it has minimal adverse effects outside of potential worsening behaviour in children. These findings are unchanged from the previous review update in 2012. This review update contributes two key additional findings: 1. a 500 mg daily dose of levetiracetam is no more effective than placebo at reducing seizures; and 2. the odds of response (50% reduction in seizure frequency) are increased by nearly 40% for each 1000 mg increase in dose of levetiracetam. It seems reasonable to continue the use of levetiracetam in both adults and children with drug-resistant focal epilepsy

Ifugao males, learning and teaching for the improvement of maternal and child health status in the Philippines: an evaluation of a program

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Improving Maternal and Child Health (MCH) is a prioritized global agenda in achieving the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 5. In this challenge, involving males has been an important agenda, and a program with such intent was conducted in <it>Alfonso Lista, Ifugao</it>, of the Philippines. The objectives of this study were: (1) to evaluate the effectiveness in knowledge, attitude, and practice before and after a MCH session; (2) to evaluate the session's effectiveness in relation to socio-demographic characteristics; and (3) to examine if males who have learned about MCH topics can teach another group of males.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A male community representative who received a lecture from the health office staff was assigned to teach a group of community males [Group 1, N = 140] in 5 sessions, using educational materials. 10 male volunteers from Group 1 then taught a different group of males [Group 2, N = 105] in their own <it>barangays </it>(villages). To evaluate its effectiveness, a self-administered questionnaire survey pertaining knowledge, attitude and practice regarding MCH was conducted at three different time points: before the session (Time 1, T1), after the session (Time 2, T2), and 3 months following the session (Time 3, T3). A repeated measures analysis of variance was conducted to test for changes over time and its interaction effect between specific socio-demographic variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In Group 1, there was a significant positive increase in knowledge score over time at T1-T2 and T1-T3 (<it>p </it>< 0.001). For attitude, the score increased only at T1-T2 (<it>p </it>= 0.027). The effectiveness in knowledge and attitude did not vary by socio-demographic characteristics. As for practice, majority of the participants reported that they had talked about MCH topics in their community and assisted a pregnant woman in some ways. A comparison between Group 1 and Group 2 revealed that Group 2 had similar effectiveness as Group 1 in knowledge improvement immediately after the session (<it>p </it>< 0.001), but no such improvement in the attitude score.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although the change in attitude needs further assessment, this strategy of continuous learning and teaching of MCH topics within community males is shown to improve knowledge and has a potential to uplift the MCH status, including the reduction of maternal deaths, in <it>Alfonso Lista, Ifugao, Philippines</it>.</p

Estimating the costs for the treatment of abortion complications in two public referral hospitals: a cross-sectional study in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Treatment costs of induced abortion complications can consume a substantial amount of hospital resources. This use of hospitals scarce resources to treat induced abortion complications may affect hospitals’ capacities to deliver other health care services. In spite of the importance of studying the burden of the treatment of induced abortion complications, few studies have been conducted to document the costs of treating abortion complications in Burkina Faso. Our objective was to estimate the costs of six abortion complications including incomplete abortion, hemorrhage, shock, infection/sepsis, cervix or vagina laceration, and uterus perforation treated in two public referral hospital facilities in Ouagadougou and the cost saving of providing safe abortion care services

An international study to investigate and optimise the safety of discontinuing valproate in young men and women with epilepsy: protocol

Valproate is the most effective treatment for idiopathic generalised epilepsy. Currently, its use is restricted in women of childbearing potential owing to high teratogenicity. Recent evidence extended this risk to men’s offspring, prompting recommendations to restrict use in everybody aged <55 years. This study will evaluate mortality and morbidity risks associated with valproate withdrawal by emulating a hypothetical randomised-controlled trial (called a “target trial”) using retrospective observational data. The data will be drawn from ~250m mainly US patients in the TriNetX repository and ~60m UK patients in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). These will be scanned for individuals aged 16–54 years with epilepsy and on valproate who either continued, switched to lamotrigine or levetiracetam, or discontinued valproate between 2014–2024, creating four groups. Randomisation to these groups will be emulated by baseline confounder adjustment using g-methods. Mortality and morbidity outcomes will be assessed and compared between groups over 1–10 years, employing time-to-first-event and recurrent events analyses. A causal prediction model will be developed from these data to aid in predicting the safest alternative antiseizure medications Together, these findings will optimise informed decision-making about valproate withdrawal and alternative treatment selection, providing immediate and vital information for patients, clinicians and regulators

The prevalence, incidence and risk factors of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection among pregnant Zimbabwean women followed up nine months after childbirth

Background Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is the leading cause of genital ulcer disease worldwide. The virus can be transmitted to neonates and there are scarce data regarding incidence of HSV-2 among women in pregnancy and after childbirth. The aim of this study is to measure the incidence and risk factors for HSV-2 infection in women followed for 9 months after childbirth. Methods Pregnant women were consecutively enrolled late in pregnancy and followed at six weeks, four and nine months after childbirth. Stored samples were tested for HSV-2 at baseline and again at nine months after childbirth and HSV-2 seropositive samples at nine months after childbirth (seroconverters) were tested retrospectively to identify the seroconversion point. Results One hundred and seventy-three (50.9%) of the 340 consecutively enrolled pregnant women were HSV-2 seronegative at baseline. HSV-2 incidence rate during the 10 months follow up was 9.7 (95% CI 5.4-14.4)/100 and 18.8 (95% CI 13.9-26.1)/100 person years at risk (PYAR) at four months and nine months after childbirth respectively. Analysis restricted to women reporting sexual activity yielded higher incidence rates. The prevalence of HSV-2 amongst the HIV-1 seropositive was 89.3%. Risk factors associated with HSV-2 seropositivity were having other sexual partners in past 12 months (Prevalence Risk Ratio (PRR) 1.8 (95% CI 1.4-2.4) and presence of Trichomonas vaginalis (PRR 1.7 95% CI 1.4-2.1). Polygamy (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 4.4, 95% CI 1.9-10.6) and young age at sexual debut (IRR 3.6, 95% CI 1.6-8.3) were associated with primary HSV-2 infection during the 10 months follow up. Conclusions Incidence of HSV-2 after childbirth is high and the period between late pregnancy and six weeks after childbirth needs to be targeted for prevention of primary HSV-2 infection to avert possible neonatal infections

Risk behaviors of 15–21 year olds in Mexico lead to a high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections: results of a survey in disadvantaged urban areas

BACKGROUND: Due to the fact that adolescents are more likely to participate in high-risk behaviors, this sector of the population is particularly vulnerable to contracting sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and resultant health problems. METHODS: A survey was carried out among adolescents from poor homes in 204 small-urban areas of Mexico. Information was collected in relation to risk behaviors and socio-economic environment. A sub-group of the participants also provided blood and urine samples which were analyzed to detect sexually transmitted infections. RESULTS: The presence of Chlamydia was detected in nearly 8% of participants who had stated that they were sexually active (18%) and approximately 12% were positive for herpes type 2-specific antibodies. For both, a greater proportion of girls resulted positive compared to boys. The presence of these biological outcomes of sexual risk behavior was associated with other risk behaviors (smoking), but not with self-reported indicators of protected sex (reported use of condom during most recent sexual activity). CONCLUSION: The results presented in this study show a startlingly high prevalence of HSV-2 among sexually active Mexican adolescents in poor urban areas, suggesting that this group has participated to a great extent in risky sexual practices. The relationships between socioeconomic environment and adolescent risk behavior need to be better understood if we are to design preventive interventions that modify the determinants of risk behaviors

Determinants of male involvement in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV programme in Eastern Uganda: a cross-sectional survey

Background: Mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) accounts for over 95% of all paediatric HIV infections worldwide. Several studies have shown that male participation in the antenatal care of their spouses together with couple counselling and testing for HIV, increases use of the interventions for HIV prevention. The prevention programme of MTCT (PMTCT) was launched in Uganda in 2000 and Mbale in 2002. Less than 10% of the pregnant women accepted antenatal HIV testing at Mbale Regional Referral Hospital in 2003; couple counselling and testing for HIV was low. Therefore, we conducted the study to determine the level of male involvement and identify its determinants in the PMTCT programme. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 388 men aged 18 years or more, whose spouses were attending antenatal care at Mbale Regional Referral Hospital, was conducted in Mbale district, Eastern Uganda. A male involvement index was constructed based on 6 questions. The survey was complemented by eight focus group discussions and five in-depth interviews. Results: The respondents had a median age of 32 years (inter-quartile range, IQR: 28-37). The majority (74%) had a low male involvement index and only 5% of men accompanied their spouses to the antenatal clinic. Men who had attained secondary education were more likely to have a high male involvement index (OR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1-3.3) than those who had primary or no formal education. The respondents, whose occupation was driver (OR: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1-0.7) or those who had fear of disclosure of their HIV sero-status results to their spouses (OR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.8), were less likely to have a high male involvement index. Barriers to male involvement in the PMTCT programme were related to both the poor health system, to socio-economic factors and to cultural beliefs. Conclusions: Structural and cultural barriers to men's involvement in the PMTCT programme in Mbale district were complex and interrelated. Community sensitization of men about the benefits of antenatal care and PMTCT and improving client-friendliness in the clinics needs to be prioritised in order to improve low male participation and mitigate the effect of socio-economic and cultural factors

The incidence of HIV among women recruited during late pregnancy and followed up for six years after childbirth in Zimbabwe

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV incidence is a useful tool for improving the targeting of populations for interventions and assessing the effectiveness of prevention strategies. A study in Harare, Zimbabwe reported cumulative incidences of 3.4% (3.0-3.8) and 6.5% (5.7-7.4) among post-partum women followed for 12 and 24 months respectively between 1997 and 2001. According to a Government report on HIV the prevalence of HIV fell from about 30% in 1999 to 14% in 2008. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of HIV-1 among women enrolled during late pregnancy and followed for six years after childbirth and to identify risk factors associated with acquisition of HIV.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HIV-uninfected pregnant women around 36 weeks gestation were enrolled from primary health care clinics in peri-urban settlements around Harare and followed-up for up to six years after childbirth. At every visit a questionnaire was interview-administered to obtain socio-demographic data and sexual history since the previous visit. A genital examination was performed followed by the collection of biological samples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 552 HIV-uninfected women 444 (80.4%) were seen at least twice during the six years follow-up and 39 acquired HIV, resulting in an incidence (95% CI) of 2.3/100 woman-years-at-risk (wyar) (1.1-4.1). The incidence over the first nine months post-partum was 5.7/100 wyar (3.3-8.1). A greater proportion of teenagers (15.3%) contributed to a high incidence rate of 2.9/100 (0.6-8.7) wyar. In multivariate analysis lower education of participant, RR 2.1 (1.1-4.3) remained significantly associated with HIV acquisition. Other risk factors associated with acquisition of HIV-1 in univariate analysis were young age at sexual debut, RR 2.3, (1.0-5.6) and having children with different fathers, RR 2.7(1.3-5.8). Women that knew that their partners had other sexual partners were about four times more likely to acquire HIV, RR 3.8 (1.3-11.2).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The incidence of HIV was high during the first nine months after childbirth. Time of seroconversion, age and educational level of seroconverter are important factors that must be considered when designing HIV intervention strategies.</p

Antenatal HIV-1 RNA load and timing of mother to child transmission; a nested case-control study in a resource poor setting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To determine HIV-1 RNA load during the third trimester of pregnancy and evaluate its effect on <it>in utero </it>and intra-partum/postpartum transmissions in a breastfeeding population.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>A nested case-control study within a PMTCT cohort of antiretroviral therapy naive pregnant women and their infants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A case was a mother who transmitted HIV-1 to her infant (transmitter) who was matched to one HIV-1 positive but non-transmitting mother (control).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From a cohort of 691 pregnant women, 177 (25.6%) were HIV-1 positive at enrolment and from these 29 (23%) transmitted HIV-1 to their infants, 10 and 19 during <it>in utero </it>and intra-partum/postpartum respectively. Twenty-four mothers sero-converted after delivery and three transmitted HIV-1 to their infants. Each unit increase in log₁₀viral load was associated with a 178 cells/mm³and 0.2 g/dL decrease in TLC and hemoglobin levels, p = 0.048 and 0.021 respectively, and a 29% increase in the risk of transmission, p = 0.023. Intra-partum/postpartum transmitters had significantly higher mean viral load relative to their matched controls, p = 0.034.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Antenatal serum HIV-1 RNA load, TLC and hemoglobin levels were significantly associated with vertical transmission but this association was independent of transmission time. This finding supports the rationale for preventive strategies designed to reduce vertical transmission by lowering maternal viral load.</p