Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model). Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 W m‾². This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m‾² due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m‾², which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (∼ 15 %) of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m‾²) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 W m‾²) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m‾²) for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs

The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone – Part 1: A comparison of satellite observations

Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation over the 11-year solar cycle affect stratospheric ozone abundances. It is important to quantify the magnitude, structure, and seasonality of the associated solar-ozone response (SOR) to understand the impact of the 11-year solar cycle on climate. Part 1 of this two-part study uses multiple linear regression analysis to extract the SOR in a number of recently updated satellite ozone datasets covering different periods within the epoch 1970 to 2013. The annual mean SOR in the updated version 7.0 (v7.0) Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II number density dataset (1984–2004) is very consistent with that found in the previous v6.2. In contrast, we find a substantial decrease in the magnitude of the SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere in the SAGE II v7.0 mixing ratio dataset (∼ 1 %) compared to the v6.2 (∼ 4 %). This difference is shown to be largely attributable to the change in the independent stratospheric temperature dataset used to convert SAGE II ozone number densities to mixing ratios. Since these temperature records contain substantial uncertainties, we suggest that datasets based on SAGE II number densities are currently most reliable for evaluating the SOR. We further analyse three extended ozone datasets that combine SAGE II v7.0 number densities with more recent GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) or OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System) measurements. The extended SAGE–OSIRIS dataset (1984–2013) shows a smaller and less statistically significant SOR across much of the tropical upper stratosphere compared to the SAGE II data alone. In contrast, the two SAGE–GOMOS datasets (1984–2011) show SORs that are in closer agreement with the original SAGE II data and therefore appear to provide a more reliable estimate of the SOR. We also analyse the SOR in the recent Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) Merged Ozone Dataset (SBUVMOD) version 8.6 (VN8.6) (1970–2012) and SBUV Merged Cohesive VN8.6 (1978–2012) datasets and compare them to the previous SBUVMOD VN8.0 (1970–2009). Over their full lengths, the three records generally agree in terms of the broad magnitude and structure of the annual mean SOR. The main difference is that SBUVMOD VN8.6 shows a smaller and less significant SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere and therefore more closely resembles the SAGE II v7.0 mixing ratio data than does the SBUV Merged Cohesive VN8.6, which has a more continuous SOR of ∼ 2 % in this region. The sparse spatial and temporal sampling of limb satellite instruments prohibits the extraction of sub-annual variations in the SOR from SAGE-based datasets. However, the SBUVMOD VN8.6 dataset suggests substantial month-to-month variations in the SOR, particularly in the winter extratropics, which may be important for the proposed high-latitude dynamical response to the solar cycle. Overall, the results highlight substantial uncertainties in the magnitude and structure of the observed SOR from different satellite records. The implications of these uncertainties for understanding and modelling the effects of solar variability on climate should be explored

Multicultural Counseling Competency Development with a Guatemala Travel Study

This quantitative study focused on the self-rating of multicultural counseling competencies by counselor education graduate students in a pre-post design. Twelve students participated in a ten day travel study course to Antigua, Guatemala in May, 2008. Prior to travel, students self-rated their levels of multicultural competency using the Multicultural Counseling Competencies Self Assessment (MCCSA) developed by Arredondo et al. (1996). Following travel, students reassessed their levels of competency using the same measurement tool. All students’ self-ratings of multicultural counseling competence increased. The authors discuss implications of this study and provide recommendations for future research

The contribution of ozone to future stratospheric temperature trends

The projected recovery of ozone from the effects of ozone depleting substances this century will offset part of the stratospheric cooling due to CO2, thereby affecting the detection and attribution of stratospheric temperature trends. Here, the impact of future ozone changes on stratospheric temperatures is quantified for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For models with interactive chemistry, ozone trends offset ~50% of the global annual mean upper stratospheric cooling due to CO2 for RCP4.5, and 20% for RCP8.5 between 2006-15 and 2090-99. For RCP2.6, ozone trends cause a net warming of the upper and lower stratosphere. The misspecification of ozone trends for RCP2.6/4.5 in models that used the IGAC/SPARC Ozone Database causes anomalous warming (cooling) of the upper (lower) stratosphere compared to chemistry-climate models. The dependence of ozone chemistry on greenhouse gas concentrations should therefore be better represented in CMIP6

Theory-Based Design and Development of a Socially Connected, Gamified Mobile App for Men About Breastfeeding (Milk Man)

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence of the benefits of breastfeeding, <15% of Australian babies are exclusively breastfed to the recommended 6 months. The support of the father is one of the most important factors in breastfeeding success, and targeting breastfeeding interventions to the father has been a successful strategy in previous research. Mobile technology offers unique opportunities to engage and reach populations to enhance health literacy and healthy behavior. OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to use previous research, formative evaluation, and behavior change theory to develop the first evidence-based breastfeeding app targeted at men. We designed the app to provide men with social support and information aiming to increase the support men can offer their breastfeeding partners. METHODS: We used social cognitive theory to design and develop the Milk Man app through stages of formative research, testing, and iteration. We held focus groups with new and expectant fathers (n=18), as well as health professionals (n=16), and used qualitative data to inform the design and development of the app. We tested a prototype with fathers (n=4) via a think-aloud study and the completion of the Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS).RESULTS: Fathers and health professionals provided input through the focus groups that informed the app development. The think-aloud walkthroughs identified 6 areas of functionality and usability to be addressed, including the addition of a tutorial, increased size of text and icons, and greater personalization. Testers rated the app highly, and the average MARS score for the app was 4.3 out of 5. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, Milk Man is the first breastfeeding app targeted specifically at men. The development of Milk Man followed a best practice approach, including the involvement of a multidisciplinary team and grounding in behavior change theory. It tested well with end users during development. Milk Man is currently being trialed as part of the Parent Infant Feeding Initiative (ACTRN12614000605695)

U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR)

Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report........................................................................................ 1 Guide to the Report......................................................................................4 Executive Summary ................................................................................... 12 Chapters 1. Our Globally Changing Climate .......................................................... 38 2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change ................................................... 98 3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change .................................... 160 4. Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections .................................... 186 5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ................................ 228 6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...................................... 267 7. Precipitation Change in the United States ......................................... 301 8. Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ......................................................... 336 9. Extreme Storms ....................................................................................... 375 10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ............ 405 11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States..... 443 12. Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................... 493 13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .............................. 540 14. Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation .................................... 584 15. Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements .......... 608 Appendices A. Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ............................. 636 B. Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment ................ 642 C. Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ............................ 652 D. Acronyms and Units ................................................................................. 664 E. Glossary ...................................................................................................... 66

U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR)

Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report........................................................................................ 1 Guide to the Report......................................................................................4 Executive Summary ................................................................................... 12 Chapters 1. Our Globally Changing Climate .......................................................... 38 2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change ................................................... 98 3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change .................................... 160 4. Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections .................................... 186 5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ................................ 228 6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...................................... 267 7. Precipitation Change in the United States ......................................... 301 8. Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ......................................................... 336 9. Extreme Storms ....................................................................................... 375 10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ............ 405 11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States..... 443 12. Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................... 493 13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .............................. 540 14. Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation .................................... 584 15. Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements .......... 608 Appendices A. Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ............................. 636 B. Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment ................ 642 C. Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ............................ 652 D. Acronyms and Units ................................................................................. 664 E. Glossary ...................................................................................................... 66

The radiative role of ozone and water vapour in the annual temperature cycle in the tropical tropopause layer

Abstract. The structure and amplitude of the radiative contributions of the annual cycles in ozone and water vapour to the prominent annual cycle in temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are considered. This is done initially through a seasonally evolving fixed dynamical heating (SEFDH) calculation. The annual cycle in ozone is found to drive significant temperature changes predominantly locally (in the vertical) and roughly in phase with the observed TTL annual cycle. In contrast, temperature changes driven by the annual cycle in water vapour are out of phase with the latter. The effects are weaker than those of ozone but still quantitatively significant, particularly near the cold point (100 to 90 hPa) where there are substantial non-local effects from variations in water vapour in lower layers of the TTL. The combined radiative heating effect of the annual cycles in ozone and water vapour maximizes above the cold point and is one factor contributing to the vertical structure of the amplitude of the annual cycle in lower-stratospheric temperatures, which has a relatively localized maximum around 70 hPa. Other important factors are identified here: radiative damping timescales, which are shown to maximize over a deep layer centred on the cold point; the vertical structure of the dynamical heating; and non-radiative processes in the upper troposphere that are inferred to impose a strong constraint on tropical temperature perturbations below 130 hPa. The latitudinal structure of the radiative contributions to the annual cycle in temperatures is found to be substantially modified when the SEFDH assumption is relaxed and the dynamical response, as represented by a zonally symmetric calculation, is taken into account. The effect of the dynamical response is to reduce the strong latitudinal gradients and inter-hemispheric asymmetry seen in the purely radiative SEFDH temperature response, while leaving the 20° N–20° S average response relatively unchanged. The net contribution of the annual ozone and water vapour cycles to the peak-to-peak amplitude in the annual cycle of TTL temperatures is found to be around 35 % of the observed 8 K at 70 hPa, 40 % of 6 K at 90 hPa, and 45 % of 3 K at 100 hPa. The primary sensitivity of the calculated magnitude of the temperature response is identified as the assumed annual mean ozone mixing ratio in the TTL. </jats:p

Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100

A stratosphere-resolving configuration of the Met Office’s Unified Model (UM) with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) scheme is used to investigate the atmospheric response to changes in a) greenhouse gases and climate, b) ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and c) non-methane ozone precursor emissions. A suite of time-slice experiments show the separate, as well as pairwise, impacts of these perturbations between the years 2000 and 2100. Sensitivity to uncertainties in future greenhouse gases and aerosols is explored through the use of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The results highlight an important role for the stratosphere in determining the annual mean tropospheric ozone response, primarily through stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone (STE). Under both climate change and reductions in ODSs, increases in STE offset decreases in net chemical production and act to increase the tropospheric ozone burden. This opposesthe effects of projected decreases in ozone precursors through measures to improve air quality, which act to reduce the ozone burden. The global tropospheric lifetime of ozone (τO3) does not change significantly under climate change at RCP4.5, but it decreases at RCP8.5. This opposes the increases in τO3 simulated under reductions in both ODSs and ozone precursor emissions. The additivity of the changes in ozone is examined by comparing the sum of the responses in the single-forcing experiments to those from equivalent combined-forcing experiments. Whilst the ozone responses to most forcing combinations are found to be approximately additive, non-additive changes are found in both the stratosphere and troposphere when a large climate forcing (RCP8.5) is combined with the effects of ODSs