VOLATILITY SPILLOVERS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE, COMMODITY AND FREIGHT FUTURES PRICES: IMPLICATIONS FOR HEDGING STRATEGIES

In many studies the assumption is made that traders only encounter one type of price risk. In reality, however, traders are exposed to multiple price risks, and often have several relevant derivative instruments available with which to hedge price uncertainty. In this study, commodity, foreign exchange, and freight futures contracts are analyzed for their effectiveness in reducing price uncertainty for international grain traders. A theoretical model is developed for a representative European importer to depict a realistic trading problem encountered by an international grain trading corporation exposed to more than one type of price risk. The traditional method of estimating hedge ratios by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is compared to the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) and the multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) methodology, which takes into account time-varying variances and covariances between the cash and futures markets. Explicit modeling of the time-variation in futures hedge ratios via the MGARCH methodology, using all derivatives and taking into account dependencies between markets results in a significant reduction in price risk for grain traders. The results also confirm that the unique, but underutilized, freight futures market is a potentially useful mechanism for reducing price uncertainty for international grain traders. The research undertaken in this study provides valuable information about reducing price uncertainty for international grain traders and gives a better understanding of the linkages between closely related markets.hedging, multivariate GARCH, foreign exchange, freight and commodity futures, Financial Economics, International Relations/Trade,

VOLATILITY SPILLOVERS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE, COMMODITY AND FREIGHT FUTURES PRICES: IMPLICATIONS FOR HEDGING STRATEGIES

In many studies the assumption is made that traders only encounter one type of price risk. In reality, however, traders are exposed to multiple price risks, and often have several relevant derivative instruments available with which to hedge price uncertainty. In this study, commodity, foreign exchange, and freight futures contracts are analyzed for their effectiveness in reducing price uncertainty for international grain traders. A theoretical model is developed for a representative European importer to depict a realistic trading problem encountered by an international grain trading corporation exposed to more than one type of price risk. The traditional method of estimating hedge ratios by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is compared to the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) and the multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) methodology, which takes into account time-varying variances and covariances between the cash and futures markets. Explicit modeling of the time-variation in futures hedge ratios via the MGARCH methodology, using all derivatives and taking into account dependencies between markets results in a significant reduction in price risk for grain traders. The results also confirm that the unique, but underutilized, freight futures market is a potentially useful mechanism for reducing price uncertainty for international grain traders. The research undertaken in this study provides valuable information about reducing price uncertainty for international grain traders and gives a better understanding of the linkages between closely related markets.hedging, multivariate GARCH, foreign exchange, freight and commodity futures, Marketing, F3, C3, G1,

Elective Open Suprarenal Aneurysm Repair in England from 2000 to 2010 an Observational Study of Hospital Episode Statistics

Background: Open surgery is widely used as a benchmark for the results of fenestrated endovascular repair of complex abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). However, the existing evidence stems from single-centre experiences, and may not be reproducible in wider practice. National outcomes provide valuable information regarding the safety of suprarenal aneurysm repair. Methods: Demographic and clinical data were extracted from English Hospital Episodes Statistics for patients undergoing elective suprarenal aneurysm repair from 1 April 2000 to 31 March 2010. Thirty-day mortality and five-year survival were analysed by logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results: 793 patients underwent surgery with 14% overall 30-day mortality, which did not improve over the study period. Independent predictors of 30-day mortality included age, renal disease and previous myocardial infarction. 5-year survival was independently reduced by age, renal disease, liver disease, chronic pulmonary disease, and known metastatic solid tumour. There was significant regional variation in both 30-day mortality and 5-year survival after risk-adjustment. Regional differences in outcome were eliminated in a sensitivity analysis for perioperative outcome, conducted by restricting analysis to survivors of the first 30 days after surgery. Conclusions: Elective suprarenal aneurysm repair was associated with considerable mortality and significant regional variation across England. These data provide a benchmark to assess the efficacy of complex endovascular repair of supra-renal aneurysms, though cautious interpretation is required due to the lack of information regarding aneurysm morphology. More detailed study is required, ideally through the mandatory submission of data to a national registry of suprarenal aneurysm repair

Social identification in sports teams: the role of personal, social and collective identity motives

Based on motivated identity construction theory (MICT; Vignoles, 2011), we offer an integrative approach examining the combined roles of six identity motives (self-esteem, distinctiveness, belonging, meaning, continuity, and efficacy) instantiated at three different motivational levels (personal, social, and collective identity) as predictors of group identification. These identity processes were investigated among 369 members of 45 sports teams from England and Italy in a longitudinal study over 6 months with four time points. Multilevel change modeling and cross-lagged analyses showed that satisfaction of four personal identity motives (individuals’ personal feelings of self-esteem, distinctiveness, meaning, and efficacy derived from team membership), three social identity motives (individuals’ feelings that the team identity carries a sense of belonging, meaning, and continuity), and one collective identity motive (a shared belief in group distinctiveness) significantly predicted group identification. Motivational processes underlying group identification are complex, multilayered, and not reducible to personal needs

The longer-term effects of access to HIV self-tests on HIV testing frequency in high-risk gay and bisexual men: follow-up data from a randomised controlled trial

Background: A wait-list randomised controlled trial in Australia (FORTH) in high-risk gay and bisexual men (GBM) showed access to free HIV self-tests (HIVSTs) doubled the frequency of HIV testing in year 1 to reach guideline recommended levels of 4 tests per year, compared to two tests per year in the standard-care arm (facility-based testing). In year 2, men in both arms had access to HIVSTs. We assessed if the effect was maintained for a further 12 months. Methods: Participants included GBM reporting condomless anal intercourse or > 5 male partners in the past 3 months. We included men who had completed at least one survey in both year 1 and 2 and calculated the mean tests per person, based on the validated self-report and clinic records. We used Poisson regression and random effects Poisson regression models to compare the overall testing frequency by study arm, year and testing modality (HIVST/facility-based test). Findings: Overall, 362 men completed at least one survey in year 1 and 343 in year 2. Among men in the intervention arm (access to HIVSTs in both years), the mean number of HIV tests in year 2 (3⋅7 overall, 2⋅3 facility-based tests, 1⋅4 HIVSTs) was lower compared to year 1 (4⋅1 overall, 1⋅7 facility-based tests, 2⋅4 HIVSTs) (RR:0⋅84, 95% CI:0⋅75-0⋅95, p=0⋅002), but higher than the standard-care arm in year 1 (2⋅0 overall, RR:1⋅71, 95% CI:1⋅48-1.97, p<0⋅001). Findings were not different when stratified by sociodemographic characteristics or recent high risk sexual history. Interpretation: In year 2, fewer HIVSTs were used on average compared to year 1, but access to free HIVSTs enabled more men to maintain higher HIV testing frequency, compared with facility-based testing only. HIV self-testing should be a key component of HIV testing and prevention strategies. Funding:: This work was supported by grant 568971 from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia

Insights into the photoprotection mechanism of the UV filter homosalate

Homosalate (HMS) is a salicylate molecule that is commonly included within commercial sunscreen formulations to provide protection from the adverse effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure. In the present work, the mechanisms by which HMS provides UV photoprotection are unravelled, using a multi-pronged approach involving a combination of time-resolved ultrafast laser spectroscopy in the gas-phase and in solution, laser-induced fluorescence, steady-state absorption spectroscopy, and computational methods. The unique combination of these techniques allow us to show that the enol tautomer of HMS undergoes ultrafast excited state intramolecular proton transfer (ESIPT) upon photoexcitation in the UVB (290–320 nm) region; once in the keto tautomer, the excess energy is predominantly dissipated non-radiatively. Sharp transitions are observed in the LIF spectrum at close-to-origin excitation energies, which points towards the potential presence of a second conformer that does not undergo ESIPT. These studies demonstrate that, overall, HMS exhibits mostly favourable photophysical characteristics of a UV filter for inclusion in sunscreen formulations

Global Scale Dissemination of ST93: A Divergent Staphylococcus aureus Epidemic Lineage That Has Recently Emerged From Remote Northern Australia.

Background: In Australia, community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineage sequence type (ST) 93 has rapidly risen to dominance since being described in the early 1990s. We examined 459 ST93 genome sequences from Australia, New Zealand, Samoa, and Europe to investigate the evolutionary history of ST93, its emergence in Australia and subsequent spread overseas. Results: Comparisons with other S. aureus genomes indicate that ST93 is an early diverging and recombinant lineage, comprising of segments from the ST59/ST121 lineage and from a divergent but currently unsampled Staphylococcal population. However, within extant ST93 strains limited genetic diversity was apparent with the most recent common ancestor dated to 1977 (95% highest posterior density 1973-1981). An epidemic ST93 population arose from a methicillin-susceptible progenitor in remote Northern Australia, which has a proportionally large Indigenous population, with documented overcrowded housing and a high burden of skin infection. Methicillin-resistance was acquired three times in these regions, with a clade harboring a staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) IVa expanding and spreading to Australia's east coast by 2000. We observed sporadic and non-sustained introductions of ST93-MRSA-IVa to the United Kingdom. In contrast, in New Zealand, ST93-MRSA-IVa was sustainably transmitted with clonal expansion within the Pacific Islander population, who experience similar disadvantages as Australian Indigenous populations. Conclusion: ST93 has a highly recombinant genome including portions derived from an early diverging S. aureus population. Our findings highlight the need to understand host population factors in the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistant community pathogens

Gut Microbial Stability is Associated with Greater Endurance Performance in Athletes Undertaking Dietary Periodization

Dietary manipulation with high-protein or high-carbohydrate content are frequently employed during elite athletic training, aiming to enhance athletic performance. Such interventions are likely to impact upon gut microbial content. This study explored the impact of acute high-protein or high-carbohydrate diets on measured endurance performance and associated gut microbial community changes. In a cohort of well-matched, highly trained endurance runners, we measured performance outcomes, as well as gut bacterial, viral (FVP), and bacteriophage (IV) communities in a double-blind, repeated-measures design randomized control trial (RCT) to explore the impact of dietary intervention with either high-protein or high-carbohydrate content. High-dietary carbohydrate improved time-trial performance by +6.5% (P < 0.03) and was associated with expansion of Ruminococcus and Collinsella bacterial spp. Conversely, high dietary protein led to a reduction in performance by −23.3% (P = 0.001). This impact was accompanied by significantly reduced diversity (IV: P = 0.04) and altered composition (IV and FVP: P = 0.02) of the gut phageome as well as enrichment of both free and inducible Sk1virus and Leuconostoc bacterial populations. Greatest performance during dietary modification was observed in participants with less substantial shifts in community composition. Gut microbial stability during acute dietary periodization was associated with greater athletic performance in this highly trained, well-matched cohort. Athletes, and those supporting them, should be mindful of the potential consequences of dietary manipulation on gut flora and implications for performance, and periodize appropriately

Planetary science and exploration in the deep subsurface: results from the MINAR Program, Boulby Mine, UK

The subsurface exploration of other planetary bodies can be used to unravel their geological history and assess their habitability. On Mars in particular, present-day habitable conditions may be restricted to the subsurface. Using a deep subsurface mine, we carried out a program of extraterrestrial analog research – MINe Analog Research (MINAR). MINAR aims to carry out the scientific study of the deep subsurface and test instrumentation designed for planetary surface exploration by investigating deep subsurface geology, whilst establishing the potential this technology has to be transferred into the mining industry. An integrated multi-instrument suite was used to investigate samples of representative evaporite minerals from a subsurface Permian evaporite sequence, in particular to assess mineral and elemental variations which provide small-scale regions of enhanced habitability. The instruments used were the Panoramic Camera emulator, Close-Up Imager, Raman spectrometer, Small Planetary Linear Impulse Tool, Ultrasonic drill and handheld X-ray diffraction (XRD). We present science results from the analog research and show that these instruments can be used to investigate in situ the geological context and mineralogical variations of a deep subsurface environment, and thus habitability, from millimetre to metre scales. We also show that these instruments are complementary. For example, the identification of primary evaporite minerals such as NaCl and KCl, which are difficult to detect by portable Raman spectrometers, can be accomplished with XRD. By contrast, Raman is highly effective at locating and detecting mineral inclusions in primary evaporite minerals. MINAR demonstrates the effective use of a deep subsurface environment for planetary instrument development, understanding the habitability of extreme deep subsurface environments on Earth and other planetary bodies, and advancing the use of space technology in economic mining