Assimilating SAR-derived water level data into a hydraulic model: a case study

Satellite-based active microwave sensors not only provide synoptic overviews of flooded areas, but also offer an effective way to estimate spatially distributed river water levels. If rapidly produced and processed, these data can be used for updating hydraulic models in near real-time. The usefulness of such approaches with real event data sets provided by currently existing sensors has yet to be demonstrated. In this case study, a Particle Filter-based assimilation scheme is used to integrate ERS-2 SAR and ENVISAT ASAR-derived water level data into a one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model of the Alzette River. Two variants of the Particle Filter assimilation scheme are proposed with a global and local particle weighting procedure. The first option finds the best water stage line across all cross sections, while the second option finds the best solution at individual cross sections. The variant that is to be preferred depends on the level of confidence that is attributed to the observations or to the model. The results show that the Particle Filter-based assimilation of remote sensing-derived water elevation data provides a significant reduction in the uncertainty at the analysis step. Moreover, it is shown that the periodical updating of hydraulic models through the proposed assimilation scheme leads to an improvement of model predictions over several time steps. However, the performance of the assimilation depends on the skill of the hydraulic model and the quality of the observation data

Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations

The paper presents a methodology for the estimation of uncertainty of inundation extent, which takes account of the uncertainty in the observed spatially distributed information and implements a fuzzy evaluation methodology. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique and the 2-D LISFLOOD-FP model were applied to derive the set of uncertain inundation realisations and resulting flood inundation maps. Conditioning of the inundation maps on fuzzified Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images results in much more realistic inundation risk maps which can better depict the variable pattern of inundation extent than previously used methods. It has been shown that the evaluation methodology compares well to traditional approaches and can produce flood hazard maps that reflect the uncertainties in model evaluation

Towards the sequential assimilation of SAR-derived water stages into hydraulic models using the Particle Filter : proof of concept

With the onset of new satellite radar constellations (e.g. Sentinel-1) and advances in computational science (e.g. grid computing) enabling the supply and processing of multimission satellite data at a temporal frequency that is compatible with real-time flood forecasting requirements, this study presents a new concept for the sequential assimilation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)-derived water stages into coupled hydrologic-hydraulic models. The proposed methodology consists of adjusting storages and fluxes simulated by a coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model using a Particle Filterbased data assimilation scheme. Synthetic observations of water levels, representing satellite measurements, are assimilated into the coupled model in order to investigate the performance of the proposed assimilation scheme as a function of both accuracy and frequency of water level observations. The use of the Particle Filter provides flexibility regarding the form of the probability densities of both model simulations and remote sensing observations. We illustrate the potential of the proposed methodology using a twin experiment over a widely studied river reach located in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The study demonstrates that the Particle Filter algorithm leads to significant uncertainty reduction of water level and discharge at the time step of assimilation. However, updating the storages of the model only improves the model forecast over a very short time horizon. A more effective way of updating thus consists in adjusting both states and inputs. The proposed methodology, which consists in updating the biased forcing of the hydraulic model using information on model errors that is inferred from satellite observations, enables persistent model improvement. The present schedule of satellite radar missions is such that it is likely that there will be continuity for SAR-based operational water management services. This research contributes to evolve reactive flood management into systematic or quasi-systematic SAR-based flood monitoring services

The importance of parameter resampling for soil moisture data assimilation into hydrologic models using the particle filter

The Sequential Importance Sampling with Resampling (SISR) particle filter and the SISR with parameter resampling particle filter (SISR-PR) are evaluated for their performance in soil moisture assimilation and the consequent effect on baseflow generation. With respect to the resulting soil moisture time series, both filters perform appropriately. However, the SISR filter has a negative effect on the baseflow due to inconsistency between the parameter values and the states after the assimilation. In order to overcome this inconsistency, parameter resampling is applied along with the SISR filter, to obtain consistent parameter values with the analyzed soil moisture state. Extreme parameter replication, which could lead to a particle collapse, is avoided by the perturbation of the parameters with white noise. Both the modeled soil moisture and baseflow are improved if the complementary parameter resampling is applied. The SISR filter with parameter resampling offers an efficient way to deal with biased observations. The robustness of the methodology is evaluated for 3 model parameter sets and 3 assimilation frequencies. Overall, the results in this paper indicate that the particle filter is a promising tool for hydrologic modeling purposes, but that an additional parameter resampling may be necessary to consistently update all state variables and fluxes within the model

Hydrological impacts of climate change at catchment scale : a case study in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg

As a consequence of an increase of days with westerly atmospheric fluxes, bringing humid air masses from the Atlantic Ocean to Western Europe, important changes in the annual and seasonal distribution of rainfall have been observed over the past 150 years. Annual rainfall totals observed during the second half of the 19th century were less important than those observed during the second half of the 20th century. Moreover, during the past 50 years winter rainfall totals have significantly increased, while summer rainfall totals have been decreasing. Streamflow observations through the second half of the 20th century have shown a significant increase of winter maximum daily streamflow, in reaction to the winter rainfall increase. The modelling of the streamflow under the 19th century climatological conditions suggests that since then, the number of winter flood days has increased, while the occurrence of summer flood days has decreased. Moreover, high floods appear to have been more frequent in the second half of the 20th century

A change detection approach to flood mapping in urban areas using TerraSAR-X

Very high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar sensors represent an alternative to aerial photography for delineating floods in built-up environments where flood risk is highest. However, even with currently available SAR image resolutions of 3 m and higher, signal returns from man-made structures hamper the accurate mapping of flooded areas. Enhanced image processing algorithms and a better exploitation of image archives are required to facilitate the use of microwave remote sensing data for monitoring flood dynamics in urban areas. In this study a hybrid methodology combining radiometric thresholding, region growing and change detection is introduced as an approach enabling the automated, objective and reliable flood extent extraction from very high-resolution urban SAR images. The method is based on the calibration of a statistical distribution of “open water” backscatter values inferred from SAR images of floods. SAR images acquired during dry conditions enable the identification of areas i) that are not “visible” to the sensor (i.e. regions affected by ‘layover’ and ‘shadow’) and ii) that systematically behave as specular reflectors (e.g. smooth tarmac, permanent water bodies). Change detection with respect to a pre- or post flood reference image thereby reduces over-detection of inundated areas. A case study of the July 2007 Severn River flood (UK) observed by the very high-resolution SAR sensor on board TerraSAR-X as well as airborne photography highlights advantages and limitations of the proposed method. We conclude that even though the fully automated SAR-based flood mapping technique overcomes some limitations of previous methods, further technological and methodological improvements are necessary for SAR-based flood detection in urban areas to match the flood mapping capability of high quality aerial photography

Calibration of channel depth and friction parameters in the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model using medium resolution SAR data and identifiability techniques

Single satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are now regularly used to estimate hydraulic model parameters such as channel roughness, depth and water slope. However, despite channel geometry being critical to the application of hydraulic models and poorly known a priori, it is not frequently the object of calibration. This paper presents a unique method to simultaneously calibrate the bankfull channel depth and channel roughness parameters within a 2-D LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model using an archive of moderate-resolution (150 m) ENVISAT satellite SAR-derived flood extent maps and a binary performance measure for a 30 × 50 km domain covering the confluence of the rivers Severn and Avon in the UK. The unknown channel parameters are located by a novel technique utilising the information content and dynamic identifiability analysis (DYNIA) (Wagener et al., 2003) of single and combinations of SAR flood extent maps to find the optimum satellite images for model calibration. Highest information content is found in those SAR flood maps acquired near the peak of the flood hydrograph, and improves when more images are combined. We found that model sensitivity to variation in channel depth is greater than for channel roughness and a successful calibration for depth could only be obtained when channel roughness values were confined to a plausible range. The calibrated reach-average channel depth was within 0.9 m (16 % error) of the equivalent value determined from river cross-section survey data, demonstrating that a series of moderate-resolution SAR data can be used to successfully calibrate the depth parameters of a 2-D hydraulic model

The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant

Towards a 20m global building map from Sentinel-1 SAR Data

This study introduces a technique for automatically mapping built-up areas using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscattering intensity and interferometric multi-temporal coherence generated from Sentinel-1 data in the framework of the Copernicus program. The underlying hypothesis is that, in SAR images, built-up areas exhibit very high backscattering values that are coherent in time. Several particular characteristics of the Sentinel-1 satellite mission are put to good use, such as its high revisit time, the availability of dual-polarized data, and its small orbital tube. The newly developed algorithm is based on an adaptive parametric thresholding that first identifies pixels with high backscattering values in both VV and VH polarimetric channels. The interferometric SAR coherence is then used to reduce false alarms. These are caused by land cover classes (other than buildings) that are characterized by high backscattering values that are not coherent in time (e.g., certain types of vegetated areas). The algorithm was tested on Sentinel-1 Interferometric Wide Swath data from five different test sites located in semiarid and arid regions in the Mediterranean region and Northern Africa. The resulting building maps were compared with the Global Urban Footprint (GUF) derived from the TerraSAR-X mission data and, on average, a 92% agreement was obtained.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version