Analysis of a continuous-time model of structural balance

It is not uncommon for certain social networks to divide into two opposing camps in response to stress. This happens, for example, in networks of political parties during winner-takes-all elections, in networks of companies competing to establish technical standards, and in networks of nations faced with mounting threats of war. A simple model for these two-sided separations is the dynamical system dX/dt = X^2 where X is a matrix of the friendliness or unfriendliness between pairs of nodes in the network. Previous simulations suggested that only two types of behavior were possible for this system: either all relationships become friendly, or two hostile factions emerge. Here we prove that for generic initial conditions, these are indeed the only possible outcomes. Our analysis yields a closed-form expression for faction membership as a function of the initial conditions, and implies that the initial amount of friendliness in large social networks (started from random initial conditions) determines whether they will end up in intractable conflict or global harmony.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figure

OH 12.8-0.9: A New Water-Fountain Source

We present observational evidence that the OH/IR star OH 12.8-0.9 is the fourth in a class of objects previously dubbed "water-fountain" sources. Using the Very Long Baseline Array, we produced the first images of the water maser emission associated with OH 12.8-0.9. We find that the masers are located in two compact regions with an angular separation of ~109 mas on the sky. The axis of separation between the two maser regions is at a position angle of 1.5 deg. East of North with the blue-shifted (-80.5 to -85.5 km/s) masers located to the North and the red-shifted (-32.0 to -35.5 km/s) masers to the South. In addition, we find that the blue- and red-shifted masers are distributed along arc-like structures ~10-12 mas across oriented roughly perpendicular to the separation axis. The morphology exhibited by the water masers is suggestive of an axisymmetric wind with the masers tracing bow shocks formed as the wind impacts the ambient medium. This bipolar jet-like structure is typical of the three other confirmed water-fountain sources. When combined with the previously observed spectral characteristics of OH 12.8-0.9, the observed spatio-kinematic structure of the water masers provides strong evidence that OH 12.8-0.9 is indeed a member of the water-fountain class.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures (1 color), accepted for publication in the Ap J Letter

HI observations of nearby galaxies I. The first list of the Karachentsev catalog

We present HI observations of the galaxies in the first list of the Karachentsev catalog of previously unknown nearby dwarf galaxies (Karachentseva & Karachentsev 1998). This survey covers all known nearby galaxy groups within the Local Volume (i.e. within 10 Mpc) and their environment, that is about 25% of the total sky. A total of 257 galaxies have been observed with a detection rate of 60%. We searched a frequency band corresponding to heliocentric radial velocities from -470 km/s to about +4000 km/s. Non-detections are either due to limited coverage in radial velocity, confusion with Local HI (mainly in the velocity range -140 km/s to +20 km/s, or lack of sensitivity for very weak emission. 25% of the detected galaxies are located within the Local Volume. Those galaxies are dwarf galaxies judged by their optical linear diameter (1.4 +/- 0.2 kpc on the average), their mean total HI mass (4.6 E7 solar masses), and their observed linewidths (39 km/s).Comment: 22 pages, 9 ps figures, A&AS, in pres

Correlations between FEV1 and patient-reported outcomes: A pooled analysis of 23 clinical trials in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: In clinical trials of inhaled bronchodilators, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) guidelines recommend that patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are assessed alongside lung function. How these endpoints are related is unclear. METHODS: Pooled longitudinal data from 23 randomised controlled COPD studies were analyzed (N = 23,213). Treatments included long-acting β2 agonists, long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LABAs or LAMAs) and the LABA/LAMA combination QVA149. Outcome measures were Transition Dyspnoea Index (TDI) and St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) scores, COPD exacerbation frequency and rescue medication use. Relationships between changes in trough forced expiratory volume in one second (ΔFEV1) and outcomes following treatment were assessed using correlations of data summaries and model-based analysis: generalized linear mixed-effect regression modeling to determine if ΔFEV1 could predict patient outcomes with different treatments. RESULTS: Mean age was 64 years, 73% were male, and most had moderate (45%) or severe (52%) disease. Statistically significant correlations were observed between ΔFEV1 and each outcome measure (exacerbations Rs = 0.05; rescue medication, SGRQ, TDI, r = 0.11-0.16; all p < .001). Patients with greater improvements in trough FEV1 had on average better SGRQ and TDI scores, fewer exacerbations, and used less rescue medication. For SGRQ and TDI scores, minimal clinically important differences were observed over the range of pooled ΔFEV1 values. Model-based predictions confirmed the treatment effect was partly explained by changes in FEV1 from baseline with improvements in PROs observed across all treatments when trough FEV1 improved. Across all endpoints active treatments were better than placebo (p < .0001), and LABA/LAMA treatment resulted in numerically better treatment outcomes than either monocomponent. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that FEV1 improvements post-bronchodilation correlate with PRO improvements. Further improvements in patient outcomes may be expected by maximizing lung function improvements. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registration details for the 23 randomised controlled studies used in this pooled analysis are supplied in Additional File 4

The vacuum bubbles in de Sitter background and black hole pair creation

We study the possible types of the nucleation of vacuum bubbles. We classify vacuum bubbles in de Sitter background and present some numerical solutions. The thin-wall approximation is employed to obtain the nucleation rate and the radius of vacuum bubbles. With careful analysis we confirm that Parke's formula is also applicable to the large true vacuum bubbles. The nucleation of the false vacuum bubble in de Sitter background is also evaluated. The tunneling process in the potential with degenerate vacua is analyzed as the limiting cases of the large true vacuum bubble and false vacuum bubble. Next, we consider the pair creation of black holes in the background of bubble solutions. We obtain static bubble wall solutions of junction equation with black hole pair. The masses of created black holes are uniquely determined by the cosmological constant and surface tension on the wall. Finally, we obtain the rate of pair creation of black holes.Comment: 3 figures, minor including errors and typos corrected, and refs. adde

Polarization of coalitions in an agent-based model of political discourse

Political discourse is the verbal interaction between political actors in a policy domain. This article explains the formation of polarized advocacy or discourse coalitions in this complex phenomenon by presenting a dynamic, stochastic, and discrete agent-based model based on graph theory and local optimization. In a series of thought experiments, actors compute their utility of contributing a specific statement to the discourse by following ideological criteria, preferential attachment, agenda-setting strategies, governmental coherence, or other mechanisms. The evolving macro-level discourse is represented as a dynamic network and evaluated against arguments from the literature on the policy process. A simple combination of four theoretical mechanisms is already able to produce artificial policy debates with theoretically plausible properties. Any sufficiently realistic configuration must entail innovative and path-dependent elements as well as a blend of exogenous preferences and endogenous opinion formation mechanisms

The key physical parameters governing frictional dissipation in a precipitating atmosphere

Precipitation generates small-scale turbulent air flows the energy of which ultimately dissipates to heat. The power of this process has previously been estimated to be around 2-4 W m-2 in the tropics: a value comparable in magnitude to the dynamic power of the global circulation. Here we suggest that this previous power estimate is approximately double the true figure. Our result reflects a revised evaluation of the mean precipitation path length Hp. We investigate the dependence of Hp on surface temperature,relative humidity,temperature lapse rate and degree of condensation in the ascending air. We find that the degree of condensation,defined as the relative change of the saturated water vapor mixing ratio in the region of condensation, is a major factor determining Hp. We estimate from theory that the mean large-scale rate of frictional dissipation associated with total precipitation in the tropics lies between 1 and 2 W m-2 and show that our estimate is supported by empirical evidence. We show that under terrestrial conditions frictional dissipation constitutes a minor fraction of the dynamic power of condensation-induced atmospheric circulation,which is estimated to be at least 2.5 times larger. However,because Hp increases with surface temperature Ts, the rate of frictional dissipation would exceed that of condensation-induced dynamics, and thus block major circulation, at Ts >~320 K in a moist adiabatic atmosphere.Comment: 12 pp, 2 figure