Computational information geometry in statistics: foundations

This paper lays the foundations for a new framework for numerically and computationally applying information geometric methods to statistical modelling

Mucormycosis in Australia: Contemporary epidemiology and outcomes

Mucormycosis is the second most common cause of invasive mould infection and causes disease in diverse hosts, including those who are immuno-competent. We conducted a multicentre retrospective study of proven and probable cases of mucormycosis diagnosed between 2004–2012 to determine the epidemiology and outcome determinants in Australia. Seventy-four cases were identified (63 proven, 11 probable). The majority (54.1%) were caused by Rhizopus spp. Patients who sustained trauma were more likely to have non-Rhizopus infections relative to patients without trauma (OR 9.0, p 0.001, 95% CI 2.1–42.8). Haematological malignancy (48.6%), chemotherapy (42.9%), corticosteroids (52.7%), diabetes mellitus (27%) and trauma (22.9%) were the most common co-morbidities or risk factors. Rheumatological/autoimmune disorders occurred in nine (12.1%) instances. Eight (10.8%) cases had no underlying co-morbidity and were more likely to have associated trauma (7/8; 87.5% versus 10/66; 15.2%; p <0.001). Disseminated infection was common (39.2%). Apophysomyces spp. and Saksenaea spp. caused infection in immuno-competent hosts, most frequently associated with trauma and affected sites other than lung and sinuses. The 180-day mortality was 56.7%. The strongest predictors of mortality were rheumatological/autoimmune disorder (OR = 24.0, p 0.038 95% CI 1.2–481.4), haematological malignancy (OR = 7.7, p 0.001, 95% CI 2.3–25.2) and admission to intensive care unit (OR = 4.2, p 0.02, 95% CI 1.3–13.8). Most deaths occurred within one month. Thereafter we observed divergence in survival between the haematological and non-haematological populations (p 0.006). The mortality of mucormycosis remains particularly high in the immuno-compromised host. Underlying rheumatological/autoimmune disorders are a previously under-appreciated risk for infection and poor outcome

Androgens In Men Study (AIMS): protocol for meta-analyses of individual participant data investigating associations of androgens with health outcomes in men

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to clarify the role(s) of endogenous sex hormones to influence health outcomes in men, specifically to define the associations of plasma testosterone with incidence of cardiovascular events, cancer, dementia and mortality risk, and to identify factors predicting testosterone concentrations. Data will be accrued from at least three Australian, two European and four North American population-based cohorts involving approximately 20 000 men. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Eligible studies include prospective cohort studies with baseline testosterone concentrations measured using mass spectrometry and 5 years of follow-up data on incident cardiovascular events, mortality, cancer diagnoses or deaths, new-onset dementia or decline in cognitive function recorded. Data for men, who were not taking androgens or drugs suppressing testosterone production, metabolism or action; and had no prior orchidectomy, are eligible. Systematic literature searches were conducted from 14 June 2019 to 31 December 2019, with no date range set for searches. Aggregate level data will be sought where individual participant data (IPD) are not available. One-stage IPD random-effects meta-analyses will be performed, using linear mixed models, generalised linear mixed models and either stratified or frailty-augmented Cox regression models. Heterogeneity in estimates from different studies will be quantified and bias investigated using funnel plots. Effect size estimates will be presented in forest plots and non-negligible heterogeneity and bias investigated using subgroup or meta-regression analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approvals obtained for each of the participating cohorts state that participants have consented to have their data collected and used for research purposes. The Androgens In Men Study has been assessed as exempt from ethics review by the Human Ethics office at the University of Western Australia (file reference number RA/4/20/5014). Each of the component studies had obtained ethics approvals; please refer to respective component studies for details. Research findings will be disseminated to the scientific and broader community via the publication of four research articles, with each involving a separate set of IPD meta-analyses (articles will investigate different, distinct outcomes), at scientific conferences and meetings of relevant professional societies. Collaborating cohort studies will disseminate findings to study participants and local communities. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019139668.Bu Beng Yeap, James Marriott, Robert J Adams, Leen Antonio, Christie M Ballantyne, Shalender Bhasin ... et al

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Shake-table testing of hybrid post-tensioned precast wall systems with alternative dissipating solutions

It is fast becoming common practice for civil engineering infrastructure and building structures to be designed to achieve a set of performance objectives. To do so, consideration is now being given to systems capable of sustaining minimal damage after an earthquake while still being cost competitive. This has led to the development of high performance seismic resisting systems, followed by advances in design methodologies. The paper presents the experimental response of four pre-cast, post-tensioned rocking walls with high-performing dissipating solutions tested on the shake-table at the University of Canterbury. The wall systems were designed as a retrofit solution for an existing frame building however, can also be used for the design of new, high-performance structures. The use of externally mounted dampers allowed numerous dissipation schemes to be explored including mild-steel dampers (hysteretic dampers), viscous dampers, a combination of both or no dampers. The advantages of both velocity and displacement dependant dissipation was investigated for protection against strong ground motions with differing rupture characteristics i.e. far-field and near-field events. The experimental results are used to verify a proposed design procedure for post-tensioned rocking systems with supplementary hysteretic and viscous dissipation. The predicted response compared well with the measured shake-table response

Impact of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring of Antiretroviral Drugs in Routine Clinical Management of People Living with HIV: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND: The treatment of HIV infection has evolved significantly since the advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy. As a result, a response rate of 90%-95% now represents a realistically achievable target. Given this background, it is difficult to imagine the additional benefits that therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) could provide in the management of HIV infection. METHODS: This article is not intended to provide a systematic literature review on TDM of antiretroviral agents; rather, the authors aim to discuss the potential added value of TDM in the optimal management of people living with HIV (PLWH) in selected real-life clinical scenarios based on data collected over 10 years by their TDM service. RESULTS: Some clinical situations, in which the selection of the optimal antiretroviral therapy is challenging, have been identified. These include poorly compliant patients, suboptimal antiretroviral therapies (in terms of both efficacy and toxicity), polypharmacy with a high risk of drug-drug interactions, and different patient populations, such as pregnant women. CONCLUSIONS: The transformation of HIV infection from a near-universally fatal illness to a lifelong chronic disease has resulted in an HIV population that is growing and aging, placing new and increasing demands on public programs and health services. Increasingly, the management of comorbidities, polypharmacy, and drug-drug interaction, and their impact on antiretroviral therapy will have to be undertaken. These clinical settings represent some of the new frontiers for the use of TDM with the goal of achieving optimal prescription and outcome for PLWH

Identification of genetic markers of resistance to echinocandins, azoles and 5-fluorocytosine in Candida glabrata by next-generation sequencing: A feasibility study

Objectives Multi-antifungal drug resistance in Candida glabrata is increasing. We examined the feasibility of next-generation sequencing (NGS) to investigate the presence of antifungal drug resistance markers in C. glabrata. Methods The antifungal susceptibility of 12 clinical isolates and one ATCC strain of C. glabrata was determined using the Sensititre YeastOne® YO10 assay. These included three isolate pairs where the second isolate of each pair had developed a rise in drug MICs. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes known to be linked to echinocandin, azole and 5-fluorocytosine resistance were analysed in all isolates through NGS. Results High-quality non-synonymous SNPs in antifungal resistance genes such as FKS1, FKS2, CgCDR1, CgPDR1 and FCY2 were identified. For two of three isolate pairs, there was a >60-fold rise in MICs to all echinocandins in the second isolate from each pair; one echinocandin-resistant isolate harboured a mutation in FKS1 (S629P) and the other in FKS2 (S663P). Of the third pair, both the 5-fluorocytosine-susceptible, and resistant isolates had a mutation in FCY2 (A237T). SNPs in CgPDR1 were found in pan-azole-resistant isolates. SNPs in other genes linked to azole resistance (CgCDR1, ERG9 and CgFLR1) were present in both azole-susceptible and azole-resistant isolates. SNPs were also identified in Candida adhesin genes EPA1, EPA6, PWP2 and PWP5 but their presence was not associated with higher drug MICs. Conclusions Genome-wide analysis of antifungal resistance markers was feasible and simultaneously revealed mutation patterns of genes implicated in resistance to different antifungal drug classesThis work was supported by the Centre for Infectious Diseases and MicrobiologydPublic Healt