BEARALERTS: A successful flare prediction system

We describe our BEARALERT program of predicting solar flares or rapid development of activity in certain sunspot groups. The purpose of the program is to test our understanding of the flare process by making public predictions via electronic mail. Neither the exact timing of the flare nor the possibility of emergence of new active regions can be predicted. But high-resolution observations of the magnetic configuration, Ha brightness and structure and other properties of a region enabled us to announce the onset of 15 of 23 major active regions over a two-year period, and 15 of 32 BEARALERTS were followed by this activity. We used high-resolution real-time data available at the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). The criteria for prediction are given and discussed, along with those for filament eruption. The success fo the BEARALERT is evaluated by counting the M- and X-class flares in six days following the alert and comparing these results with those of a number of other predictive schemes. We find the single regions chosen had about 30% more flares than the whole disk on random days, or several times more than individual regions chosen at random. There was a gain of 1.5 to 2.0 times in flare frequency compared to regions selected by spot size or complexity. We also find an improvement of 20–40% over large or complex regions that have had some flares already. The ratio of improvement has increased with time as we gained experience. In the 24-hr period following each alert, one or more M-class or greater flares occurred 72% of the time. We also checked the possibility of prediction by the 152-day interval which some workers have claimed, but found those results slightly worse than random and considerably inferior to the BEARALERTS. All of the particularly active regions that were missed either occurred during bad weather at BBSO or were missed because we only issued alerts for one region at a time

BEARALERTS: A successful flare prediction system

We describe our BEARALERT program of predicting solar flares or rapid development of activity in certain sunspot groups. The purpose of the program is to test our understanding of the flare process by making public predictions via electronic mail. Neither the exact timing of the flare nor the possibility of emergence of new active regions can be predicted. But high-resolution observations of the magnetic configuration, Ha brightness and structure and other properties of a region enabled us to announce the onset of 15 of 23 major active regions over a two-year period, and 15 of 32 BEARALERTS were followed by this activity. We used high-resolution real-time data available at the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). The criteria for prediction are given and discussed, along with those for filament eruption. The success fo the BEARALERT is evaluated by counting the M- and X-class flares in six days following the alert and comparing these results with those of a number of other predictive schemes. We find the single regions chosen had about 30% more flares than the whole disk on random days, or several times more than individual regions chosen at random. There was a gain of 1.5 to 2.0 times in flare frequency compared to regions selected by spot size or complexity. We also find an improvement of 20–40% over large or complex regions that have had some flares already. The ratio of improvement has increased with time as we gained experience. In the 24-hr period following each alert, one or more M-class or greater flares occurred 72% of the time. We also checked the possibility of prediction by the 152-day interval which some workers have claimed, but found those results slightly worse than random and considerably inferior to the BEARALERTS. All of the particularly active regions that were missed either occurred during bad weather at BBSO or were missed because we only issued alerts for one region at a time

Gray Whale Distribution and Catch by Alaskan Eskimos: A Replacement for the Bowhead Whale?

The catch of gray whales, Eschrichtius robustus, by Alaskan Eskimos from 1925 to 1980 has been documented to the extent possible by a search of the literature and personal communications with knowledgeable sources. During the period 1950-1980, 47 gray whales were landed by hunters at 12 villages. During this same period, 505 bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, were landed at nine coastal whaling villages. Alaskan Eskimos traditionally have been bowhead whalers, principally because of the predictive nature of the bowheads' migration. Gray whaling has never been an important subsistence activity. Because the bowhead population is thought to be depleted, gray whales have been suggested as a possible substitute for subsistence. The distribution of gray whales in Alaskan coastal waters is such that reliable annual whaling for this species is possible only at villages on the shores of the northern Bering Sea; it is unlikely for villages north of Bering Strait to Cape Lisburne, and more unlikely for villages north of Cape Lisburne and east of Point Barrow. Based on cultural and biological grounds, substituting gray whales for bowheads does not appear to be a reliable alternative for the residents of four to six of the nine Eskimo villages that currently participate in bowhead whaling.Key words: gray whale, Eschrichitus robustus; bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus; Eskimos; subsistence whaling; AlaskaMots clés: baleine grise de Californie, Eschrichtius robustus; balaine boréale, Balaena mysticetus; Esquimaux, chasse à la baleine comme activité de subsistance, Alask

Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001-2010)

The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares in order to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares >X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, that finds: (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3,407 days considered (6.5% duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2-8 days; (2) 56% of flares >X1 were caught, occurring in 19% of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488).Comment: 19 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001 – 2010)

The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares in order to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares ≥X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, that finds: (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3,407 days considered (6.5% duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2-8 days; (2) 56% of flares ≥X1 were caught, occurring in 19% of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488)

Taiwan Oscillation Network

The Taiwan Oscillation Network (TON) is a ground-based network to measure solar intensity oscillations to study the internal structure of the Sun. K-line full-disk images of 1000 pixels diameter are taken at a rate of one image per minute. Such data would provide information onp-modes withl as high as 1000. The TON will consist of six identical telescope systems at proper longitudes around the world. Three telescope systems have been installed at Teide Observatory (Tenerife), Huairou Solar Observing Station (near Beijing), and Big Bear Solar Observatory (California). The telescopes at these three sites have been taking data simultaneously since October of 1994. Anl – v diagram derived from 512 images is included to show the quality of the data

Food for Thought: Dietary Intervention in a Rare Cause of Severe Ventilatory Failure

Plastic bronchitis is a rare condition characterised by endobronchial cast formation. We report the case of a 53-year-old women who deteriorated following an elective bronchoscopy procedure. She developed refractory ventilatory failure and required repeated bronchoscopy, which identified thick tenacious casts as the cause of her airway compromise. She did not respond to conventional therapies including endoscopic clearance, mucolytic therapy and nebulised tissue plasminogen activator (TPA). Total parenteral nutrition and a fat-free enteral diet were instituted while the patient was on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which led to substantial improvement in her condition and demonstrated the importance of dietary strategies in this case

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio