Shipping blood to a central laboratory in multicenter clinical trials: effect of ambient temperature on specimen temperature, and effects of temperature on mononuclear cell yield, viability and immunologic function

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinical trials of immunologic therapies provide opportunities to study the cellular and molecular effects of those therapies and may permit identification of biomarkers of response. When the trials are performed at multiple centers, transport and storage of clinical specimens become important variables that may affect lymphocyte viability and function in blood and tissue specimens. The effect of temperature during storage and shipment of peripheral blood on subsequent processing, recovery, and function of lymphocytes is understudied and represents the focus of this study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Peripheral blood samples (n = 285) from patients enrolled in 2 clinical trials of a melanoma vaccine were shipped from clinical centers 250 or 1100 miles to a central laboratory at the sponsoring institution. The yield of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) collected before and after cryostorage was correlated with temperatures encountered during shipment. Also, to simulate shipping of whole blood, heparinized blood from healthy donors was collected and stored at 15°C, 22°C, 30°C, or 40°C, for varied intervals before isolation of PBMC. Specimen integrity was assessed by measures of yield, recovery, viability, and function of isolated lymphocytes. Several packaging systems were also evaluated during simulated shipping for the ability to maintain the internal temperature in adverse temperatures over time.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Blood specimen containers experienced temperatures during shipment ranging from -1 to 35°C. Exposure to temperatures above room temperature (22°C) resulted in greater yields of PBMC. Reduced cell recovery following cryo-preservation as well as decreased viability and immune function were observed in specimens exposed to 15°C or 40°C for greater than 8 hours when compared to storage at 22°C. There was a trend toward improved preservation of blood specimen integrity stored at 30°C prior to processing for all time points tested. Internal temperatures of blood shipping containers were maintained longer in an acceptable range when warm packs were included.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Blood packages shipped overnight by commercial carrier may encounter extreme seasonal temperatures. Therefore, considerations in the design of shipping containers should include protecting against extreme ambient temperature deviations and maintaining specimen temperature above 22°C or preferably near 30°C.</p

Prediction of acute myeloid leukaemia risk in healthy individuals

The incidence of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) increases with age and mortality exceeds 90% when diagnosed after age 65. Most cases arise without any detectable early symptoms and patients usually present with the acute complications of bone marrow failure(1). The onset of such de novo AML cases is typically preceded by the accumulation of somatic mutations in preleukaemic haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) that undergo clonal expansion(2,3). However, recurrent AML mutations also accumulate in HSPCs during ageing of healthy individuals who do not develop AML, a phenomenon referred to as age-related clonal haematopoiesis (ARCH)(4-8). Here we use deep sequencing to analyse genes that are recurrently mutated in AML to distinguish between individuals who have a high risk of developing AML and those with benign ARCH. We analysed peripheral blood cells from 95 individuals that were obtained on average 6.3 years before AML diagnosis (pre-AML group), together with 414 unselected age- and gender-matched individuals (control group). Pre-AML cases were distinct from controls and had more mutations per sample, higher variant allele frequencies, indicating greater clonal expansion, and showed enrichment of mutations in specific genes. Genetic parameters were used to derive a model that accurately predicted AML-free survival; this model was validated in an independent cohort of 29 pre-AML cases and 262 controls. Because AML is rare, we also developed an AML predictive model using a large electronic health record database that identified individuals at greater risk. Collectively our findings provide proof-of-concept that it is possible to discriminate ARCH from pre-AML many years before malignant transformation. This could in future enable earlier detection and monitoring, and may help to inform intervention

IMPRoving Outcomes for children exposed to domestic ViolencE (IMPROVE): an evidence synthesis

BackgroundExposure to domestic violence and abuse (DVA) during childhood and adolescence increases the risk of negative outcomes across the lifespan.ObjectivesTo synthesise evidence on the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of interventions for children exposed to DVA, with the aim of making recommendations for further research.Design(1) A systematic review of controlled trials of interventions; (2) a systematic review of qualitative studies of participant and professional experience of interventions; (3) a network meta-analysis (NMA) of controlled trials and cost-effectiveness analysis; (4) an overview of current UK provision of interventions; and (5) consultations with young people, parents, service providers and commissioners.SettingsNorth America (11), the Netherlands (1) and Israel (1) for the systematic review of controlled trials of interventions; the USA (4) and the UK (1) for the systematic review of qualitative studies of participant and professional experience of interventions; and the UK for the overview of current UK provision of interventions and consultations with young people, parents, service providers and commissioners.ParticipantsA total of 1345 children for the systematic review of controlled trials of interventions; 100 children, 202 parents and 39 professionals for the systematic review of qualitative studies of participant and professional experience of interventions; and 16 young people, six parents and 20 service providers and commissioners for the consultation with young people, parents, service providers and commissioners.InterventionsPsychotherapeutic, advocacy, parenting skills and advocacy, psychoeducation, psychoeducation and advocacy, guided self-help.Main outcome measuresInternalising symptoms and externalising behaviour, mood, depression symptoms and diagnosis, post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms and self-esteem for the systematic review of controlled trials of interventions and NMA; views about and experience of interventions for the systematic review of qualitative studies of participant and professional experience of interventions and consultations.Data sourcesMEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Science Citation Index, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, Social Services Abstracts, Social Care Online, Sociological Abstracts, Social Science Citation Index, World Health Organization trials portal and clinicaltrials.gov.Review methodsA narrative review; a NMA and incremental cost-effectiveness analysis; and a qualitative synthesis.ResultsThe evidence base on targeted interventions was small, with limited settings and types of interventions; children were mostly &lt; 14 years of age, and there was an absence of comparative studies. The interventions evaluated in trials were mostly psychotherapeutic and psychoeducational interventions delivered to the non-abusive parent and child, usually based on the child’s exposure to DVA (not specific clinical or broader social needs). Qualitative studies largely focused on psychoeducational interventions, some of which included the abusive parent. The evidence for clinical effectiveness was as follows: 11 trials reported improvements in behavioural or mental health outcomes, with modest effect sizes but significant heterogeneity and high or unclear risk of bias. Psychoeducational group-based interventions delivered to the child were found to be more effective for improving mental health outcomes than other types of intervention. Interventions delivered to (non-abusive) parents and to children were most likely to be effective for improving behavioural outcomes. However, there is a large degree of uncertainty around comparisons, particularly with regard to mental health outcomes. In terms of evidence of cost-effectiveness, there were no economic studies of interventions. Cost-effectiveness was modelled on the basis of the NMA, estimating differences between types of interventions. The outcomes measured in trials were largely confined to children’s mental health and behavioural symptoms and disorders, although stakeholders’ concepts of success were broader, suggesting that a broader range of outcomes should be measured in trials. Group-based psychoeducational interventions delivered to children and non-abusive parents in parallel were largely acceptable to all stakeholders. There is limited evidence for the acceptability of other types of intervention. In terms of the UK evidence base and service delivery landscape, there were no UK-based trials, few qualitative studies and little widespread service evaluation. Most programmes are group-based psychoeducational interventions. However, the funding crisis in the DVA sector is significantly undermining programme delivery.ConclusionsThe evidence base regarding the acceptability, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions to improve outcomes for children exposed to DVA is underdeveloped. There is an urgent need for more high-quality studies, particularly trials, that are designed to produce actionable, generalisable findings that can be implemented in real-world settings and that can inform decisions about which interventions to commission and scale. We suggest that there is a need to pause the development of new interventions and to focus on the systematic evaluation of existing programmes. With regard to the UK, we have identified three types of programme that could be justifiably prioritised for further study: psycho-education delivered to mothers and children, or children alone; parent skills training in combination with advocacy: and interventions involving the abusive parent/caregiver. We also suggest that there is need for key stakeholders to come together to explicitly identify and address the structural, practical and cultural barriers that may have hampered the development of the UK evidence base to date.Future work recommendationsThere is a need for well-designed, well-conducted and well-reported UK-based randomised controlled trials with cost-effectiveness analyses and nested qualitative studies. Development of consensus in the field about core outcome data sets is required. There is a need for further exploration of the acceptability and effectiveness of interventions for specific groups of children and young people (i.e. based on ethnicity, age, trauma exposure and clinical profile). There is also a need for an investigation of the context in which interventions are delivered, including organisational setting and the broader community context, and the evaluation of qualities, qualifications and disciplines of personnel delivering interventions. We recommend prioritisation of psychoeducational interventions and parent skills training delivered in combination with advocacy in the next phase of trials, and exploratory trials of interventions that engage both the abusive and the non-abusive parent.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013004348 and PROSPERO CRD420130043489.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme.</jats:sec

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

SummaryBackground Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatoryactions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.Methods In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospitalwith COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients wererandomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once perday by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatmentgroups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment andwere twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants andlocal study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to theoutcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treatpopulation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.Findings Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) wereeligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomlyallocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall,561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days(rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87–1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days(rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98–1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, nosignificant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilationor death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87–1·03; p=0·24).Interpretation In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or otherprespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restrictedto patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication

Saving and Investment in the 1980s

This paper reviews the behaviour of saving and investment in Australia during the 1980s. The subject matter is divided into three broad areas: a description of trends in saving and investment (Section 2); a discussion of the basic determinants of private saving rates (Section 3) and a discussion of the role of saving-investment imbalances in the determination of the current account (Section 4). A central finding of the paper is that gross private saving rates when adjusted for inflation have been quite stable over a period of at least three decades. This is in contrast to the somewhat misleading impression given by movements in the conventionally quoted household saving ratio, which has been in steady decline since the mid 1970s. The short-term behaviour of private saving appears to be qualitatively well explained by simple principles of consumption smoothing, whereby the saving ratio moves inversely with income. However, evidence from both time series and cross sectional data suggests that consumption is more closely correlated with income over longer time periods than would be predicted by conventional theoretical models. In inflation adjusted terms, the private sector has typically been in deficit, investing more than it saves. Two main explanations are offered for these persistent deficits: first, the effect of Australia’s relatively high population growth on the demand for capital and secondly the presence of certain tax distortions (such as those arising from the interaction of inflation with the tax system) which tend to encourage capital importing. It is likely that both factors are important in explaining private sector deficits. Saving levels in the public sector have shown much larger swings than have occurred in the private sector. Public saving rates fell dramatically in the mid 1970s and did not recover until a decade later. Although the public sector financing requirement has been dramatically shifted into surplus in the second half of the 1980s, this result has been achieved at lower levels of public saving and investment than were typical prior to the mid 1970s.

Arbitrage pricing with incomplete markets

This paper presents a new arbitrage-free approach to the pricing of derivatives, when the price process of the underlying security does not conform to the standard assumptions. In comparision to the Black-Scholes price process we relax the requirements of i) continuity; ii) constant volatility; and iii) infinite trading possibilities. We retain the assumption that the average volatility of price changes over the option's life is known, and we require that price jumps not be greater than some specified size. With only these assumptions we show that the no-arbitrage bound on a European call option's value approaches the Black-Scholes price as the maximum jump size approaches zero. We present a simple numerical method for the calculation of option pricing bounds for any specified maximum jump size, and discuss implications of our model for hedging, and the estimation of volatility.derivatives, arbitrage, price jumps,