Modelling global material stocks and flows for residential and service sector buildings towards 2050

Residential buildings and service sector buildings have an important contribution to climate change, directly via energy use in these buildings and indirectly through construction activities and the production and disposal of buildings materials. In this paper, we introduce a model that looks at total global building stock for 26 regions between 1970 and 2050 and calculates the floor space and building materials both in new buildings and in demolished buildings. For residential buildings, we build upon the work of Marinova et al. (2019, this issue), who used a building material database to come up with scenarios for materials in the residential building stock. This paper adds two things. First, we introduce a new regression-based model for service building floor space, recognizing 4 different types of service-related buildings. Secondly, we use a dynamic stock model, based on lifetime distributions found in literature, to calculate the construction (inflow) and demolition (outflow) of building floor space for both residential and service-related purposes. We combine this with data from the building material database to come up with scenarios for the annual demand for construction materials worldwide as well as an estimation of the availability of waste materials after building demolition towards 2050. The model can thus be used to assess the potential for closing the material cycles in the construction sector, while distinguishing urban and rural areas explicitly. The results show that demand for construction materials will continue to increase in most regions, even in developed countries. Global demand for steel and cement for the building sector is estimated to be 769 Mt/yr and 11.9 Gt/yr respectively, by the end of the modelling period. This represents a respective growth of 31% and 14% compared to today. Drivers behind this are an expected growth of global residential building stock of about 50%, and a growth of about 150% in the building stock for services. Our model projects that by 2050, only 55% of construction-related demand for copper, wood and steel could potentially be covered by recycled building materials. For other materials the availability of scrap may be higher, reaching up to 71% of new demand in the case of aluminium. This means that in most regions urban mining cannot cover the growing demand for construction materials

Inhibition of G-protein signalling in cardiac dysfunction of intellectual developmental disorder with cardiac arrhythmia (IDDCA) syndrome

Background: Pathogenic variants of GNB5 encoding the β5 subunit of the guanine nucleotide-binding protein cause IDDCA syndrome, an autosomal recessive neurodevelopmental disorder associated with cognitive disability and cardiac arrhythmia, particularly severe bradycardia. Methods: We used echocardiography and telemetric ECG recordings to investigate consequences of Gnb5 loss in mouse. Results: We delineated a key role of Gnb5 in heart sinus conduction and showed that Gnb5-inhibitory signalling is essential for parasympathetic control of heart rate (HR) and maintenance of the sympathovagal balance. Gnb5-/- mice were smaller and had a smaller heart than Gnb5+/+ and Gnb5+/-, but exhibited better cardiac function. Lower autonomic nervous system modulation through diminished parasympathetic control and greater sympathetic regulation resulted in a higher baseline HR in Gnb5-/- mice. In contrast, Gnb5-/- mice exhibited profound bradycardia on treatment with carbachol, while sympathetic modulation of the cardiac stimulation was not altered. Concordantly, transcriptome study pinpointed altered expression of genes involved in cardiac muscle contractility in atria and ventricles of knocked-out mice. Homozygous Gnb5 loss resulted in significantly higher frequencies of sinus arrhythmias. Moreover, we described 13 affected individuals, increasing the IDDCA cohort to 44 patients. Conclusions: Our data demonstrate that loss of negative regulation of the inhibitory G-protein signalling causes HR perturbations in Gnb5-/- mice, an effect mainly driven by impaired parasympathetic activity. We anticipate that unravelling the mechanism of Gnb5 signalling in the autonomic control of the heart will pave the way for future drug screening

Early-infantile onset epilepsy and developmental delay caused by bi-allelic GAD1 variants.

Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) and glutamate are the most abundant amino acid neurotransmitters in the brain. GABA, an inhibitory neurotransmitter, is synthesized by glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD). Its predominant isoform GAD67, contributes up to ∼90% of base-level GABA in the CNS, and is encoded by the GAD1 gene. Disruption of GAD1 results in an imbalance of inhibitory and excitatory neurotransmitters, and as Gad1-/- mice die neonatally of severe cleft palate, it has not been possible to determine any potential neurological dysfunction. Furthermore, little is known about the consequence of GAD1 disruption in humans. Here we present six affected individuals from six unrelated families, carrying bi-allelic GAD1 variants, presenting with developmental and epileptic encephalopathy, characterized by early-infantile onset epilepsy and hypotonia with additional variable non-CNS manifestations such as skeletal abnormalities, dysmorphic features and cleft palate. Our findings highlight an important role for GAD1 in seizure induction, neuronal and extraneuronal development, and introduce GAD1 as a new gene associated with developmental and epileptic encephalopathy

“To Educate a Xenophobe”: Outcomes Review of the Advocacy Campaign for Tolerance in Education (Verbal and Visual Contents in Primary School Textbooks) in Bulgaria

In recent years, the problem of methods of education in values of tolerance to difference is subject to increased public attention at the EU level. However, even a sparse reading of the Bulgarian primers and readers shows that the first meeting of children with what is officially “normal” in the social world excludes the “different” people. The main objective of the project “To Educate a Xenophobe” (2015-2016) implemented by the Bulgarian NGO Political Science Center in collaboration with Institute for Creative Civil Strategies was to address the absence of systematic orientation to the initial stage of education as crucial for assimilating a tolerant attitude towards the different people in society. The project aimed to increase public attention and initiate a constructive dialogue with Bulgarian decision makers and stakeholders on the need for conducting reforms in state education requirements and legislation via a package of analyses, surveys and in-depth interviews

Global construction materials database and stock analysis of residential buildings between 1970-2050

Huge material stocks are embedded in the residential built environment. These materials have the potential to be a source of secondary materials, an important consideration for the transition towards a circular economy. Consistent information about such stocks, especially at the global level, is missing. This article attempts to fill part of that gap by compiling a material intensities database for different types of buildings and applying that data in the context of a scenario analysis, linked to the SSP scenarios as implemented in the global climate model IMAGE. The database is created on a global scale, dividing the world into 26 regions in compliance with IMAGE. The potential use of the database was tested and served as input for modelling the housing and material stock of residential buildings for the period 1970–2050, according to specifications made for the SSP2 scenario. Six construction materials in four different dwelling types in urban and rural areas are included. The material flows related to those stocks are estimated and analysed in a companion paper (also exploring commercial buildings) by Deetman et al. (2019). The results suggest a significant increase in the material stock in housing towards 2050, particularly in urban areas. The results reflect specific patterns in the material contents across the different building types. China presently dominates developments in the global level building stock. The SSP2 projections show a stock saturation towards 2050 for China. In other regions, such as India and South East Asia, stock growth is presently just taking off and can be expected to become dominant for global developments after 2050. The database is created to be used as input for resource and climate policymaking as well as assessment of environmental impact related to residential buildings and assessment of possibilities for urban mining. In the future, we hope to extend it as new data on materials in the built environment become available

Modelling global material stocks and flows for residential and service sector buildings towards 2050

Residential buildings and service sector buildings have an important contribution to climate change, directly via energy use in these buildings and indirectly through construction activities and the production and disposal of buildings materials. In this paper, we introduce a model that looks at total global building stock for 26 regions between 1970 and 2050 and calculates the floor space and building materials both in new buildings and in demolished buildings. For residential buildings, we build upon the work of Marinova et al. (2019, this issue), who used a building material database to come up with scenarios for materials in the residential building stock. This paper adds two things. First, we introduce a new regression-based model for service building floor space, recognizing 4 different types of service-related buildings. Secondly, we use a dynamic stock model, based on lifetime distributions found in literature, to calculate the construction (inflow) and demolition (outflow) of building floor space for both residential and service-related purposes. We combine this with data from the building material database to come up with scenarios for the annual demand for construction materials worldwide as well as an estimation of the availability of waste materials after building demolition towards 2050. The model can thus be used to assess the potential for closing the material cycles in the construction sector, while distinguishing urban and rural areas explicitly. The results show that demand for construction materials will continue to increase in most regions, even in developed countries. Global demand for steel and cement for the building sector is estimated to be 769 Mt/yr and 11.9 Gt/yr respectively, by the end of the modelling period. This represents a respective growth of 31% and 14% compared to today. Drivers behind this are an expected growth of global residential building stock of about 50%, and a growth of about 150% in the building stock for services. Our model projects that by 2050, only 55% of construction-related demand for copper, wood and steel could potentially be covered by recycled building materials. For other materials the availability of scrap may be higher, reaching up to 71% of new demand in the case of aluminium. This means that in most regions urban mining cannot cover the growing demand for construction materials

Global construction materials database and stock analysis of residential buildings between 1970-2050

Huge material stocks are embedded in the residential built environment. These materials have the potential to be a source of secondary materials, an important consideration for the transition towards a circular economy. Consistent information about such stocks, especially at the global level, is missing. This article attempts to fill part of that gap by compiling a material intensities database for different types of buildings and applying that data in the context of a scenario analysis, linked to the SSP scenarios as implemented in the global climate model IMAGE. The database is created on a global scale, dividing the world into 26 regions in compliance with IMAGE. The potential use of the database was tested and served as input for modelling the housing and material stock of residential buildings for the period 1970–2050, according to specifications made for the SSP2 scenario. Six construction materials in four different dwelling types in urban and rural areas are included. The material flows related to those stocks are estimated and analysed in a companion paper (also exploring commercial buildings) by Deetman et al. (2019). The results suggest a significant increase in the material stock in housing towards 2050, particularly in urban areas. The results reflect specific patterns in the material contents across the different building types. China presently dominates developments in the global level building stock. The SSP2 projections show a stock saturation towards 2050 for China. In other regions, such as India and South East Asia, stock growth is presently just taking off and can be expected to become dominant for global developments after 2050. The database is created to be used as input for resource and climate policymaking as well as assessment of environmental impact related to residential buildings and assessment of possibilities for urban mining. In the future, we hope to extend it as new data on materials in the built environment become available

Experimental and theoretical study of quercetin complexes formed on pure silica and Zn-modified mesoporous MCM-41 and SBA-16 materials

SBA-16 and MCM-41 silica materials were synthesized and modified by post-synthesis method with different amounts of Zn (2 and 4 wt.%). Quercetin, a flavonol compound, was loaded by incipient wetness impregnation method on the pure silica and Zn-modified mesoporous MCM-41 and SBA-16 supports. The parent and drug loaded formulations were characterized by powder XRD, N2 physisorption, thermal analysis, TEM, UV Vis and FT-IR spectroscopies. The formation of Zn:quercetin complex was studied by FT-IR spectroscopy and quantum-chemical calculations. Loading of quercetin on mesoporous carriers made the sustained delivery of the bioactive compound possible in a buffer with pH ¼ 5.5, typical of dermal formulations. The results from the release experiments are in good accordance with the interaction energy between the bioactive molecule and non-modified and Zn-modified mesoporous materials, predicted by the quantum-chemical calculations. For the first time the formation of the most stable Zn quercetin complexes loaded on the mesoporous silica materials were determined. The obtained mesoporous delivery systems with Zn-quercetin complex are promising as dermal formulations