Predicting exchange rates via a futures market

Predicting future spot exchange rates has always been useful for companies trading internationally. Now finding future exchange rates is essential for countries that are to join common currency zones (Eurosystem) and need to set reference rates for the ERM II. This paper presents a model that attempts to determine exchange rates and, unlike others, is based on an analysis of the futures market. The model is based on the assumption that the futures market is dominated by two categories of traders: arbitrageurs and fundamental traders. The divergence of the futures rate from its theoretical value is gauged and then considered to be an indication of the direction and strength of the two forces in the market. The arbitrageurs' influence is filtered out and thus the model outputs the rate based on the fundamental traders' expectations

Real options - realistic valuation

In valuation of real options, a widely accepted assumption is that the underlying real asset is perfectly correlated with a financial one. As a result, valuation techniques from the financial world can be used. Since this assumption is in general unrealistic and may lead to substantial mispricing, even if the correlation is very high but not perfect, we argue that a different approach is more adequate. It is based on a simple principle of invariance of the market price of risk computed for certain portfolios involving the underlying asset and the options. This is illustrated on a simple model where we can clearly see the relations between the prices obtained by various methods

Company valuation : value, structure, risk

This book, for a few different reasons, was focused on the DCF method, the main of the reasons being that the DCF method captures best the value of prof- itable, economically sound companies – it works for all firms which have real expertise. The main purpose of this book was to explain the inner workings of the DCF method, especially the variant in which capital structure constantly af- fects cost of equity, as it does in reality. The focus then was on the valuation model which integrates the three com- ponents that elsewhere are often treated separately: cash flows, the cost of capi- tal and the discounting process itself. The book revolved around these three is- sues. For example, it is commonly known that if the value of equity changes, the capital structure changes too. At the same time the change may affect the cost of capital, which in turn will influence the value of equity itself. The re- cursive approach to company valuation that was presented in the book relied on solving such logical loops that appeared both at each time period and along time periods. Performing the company valuation is such a way is much more complicated than assuming no links between for example the value of equity and the cost of capital, but leads to a much more reliable and methodically f law- less valuation

The new computer program for three dimensional relativistic hydrodynamical model

An effective computer program for three dimensional relativistic hydrodynamical model has been developed. It implements a new approach to the early hot phase of relativistic heavy-ion collisions. The computer program simulates time-space evolution of nuclear matter in terms of ideal-fluid dynamics. Equations of motions of hydrodynamics are solved making use of finite difference methods. Commonly-used algorithms of numerical relativistic hydrodynamics RHLLE and MUSTA-FORCE have been applied in simulations. To speed-up calculations, parallel processing has been made available for solving hydrodynamical equations. The test results of simulations for 3D, 2D and Bjorken expansion are reported in this paper. As a next step we plan to implement the hadronization algorithm by implementing the continuous particle emission for freeze-out and comparing it with Cooper-Frye formula.Comment: Quark Matter 2005 Poster Session Proceedin

Compound nucleus contribution to the alpha particle scattering on 28Si nuclei

Compound nucleus contribution to the elastic and inelastic scattering of alpha particles on 28Si nuclei is estimated. The analysis is based on the Hauser-Feshbach theory of compound reactions. For two selected alpha particle energies the experimental energy averaged angular distributions are compared with those calculated as an incoherent sum of direct and compound nucleus (for ground and 1.78 MeV states) or pure compound nucleus (for 4.61 MeV state) cross-sections

Rozwój systemów motywacyjnych w spółkach kapitałowych

Developing a model of awarding shares may be a way to retain experienced managers and distinguished employees in the company. Strengthening the ties of a key employee with the company through the use of various solutions is usually a motivating stimulus and encouraging him to become more involved in the company's affairs. The aim of the work is, against the background of the presented incentive systems, to consider the correctness of introducing managerial options to the articles of association and to outline de lege ferenda postulates regarding the standards of introducing incentive systems to the systems of legal persons.Opracowanie modelu przyznawania udziałów może być sposobem na zatrzymanie w spółce doświadczonej kadry menedżerskiej oraz zasłużonych pracowników. Wzmocnienie więzi kluczowego pracownika ze spółką poprzez zastosowanie różnych rozwiązań przeważnie stanowi bodziec motywujący i zachęcający go do większego zaangażowania w sprawy spółki. Celem pracy jest, na tle przedstawionych systemów motywacyjnych, rozważenie słuszności wprowadzania opcji menedżerskich do umowy spółki jak i nakreślenie postulatów de lege ferenda w zakresie standardów wprowadzania systemów motywacyjnych do systemów osób prawnych

The Expressiveness of Locally Stratified Programs

This paper completes an investigation of the logical expressibility of finite, locally stratified, general logic programs. We show that every hyperarithmetic set can be computed by a suitably chosen locally stratified logic program (as a set of values of a predicate over its perfect model). This is an optimal result, since the perfect model of a locally stratified program is itself an implicitly definable hyperarithmetic set (under a recursive coding of the Herbrand base); hence to obtain all hyperarithmetic sets requires something new, in this case selecting one predicate from the model. We find that the expressive power of programs does not increase when one considers the programs which have a unique stable model or a total well-founded model. This shows that all these classes of structures (perfect models of locally stratified logic programs, well-founded models which turn out to be total, and stable models of programs possessing a unique stable model) are all closely connected with Kleene\u27s hyperarithmetical hierarchy. Thus, for general logic programming, negation with respect to two-valued logic is related to the hyperarithmetic hierarchy in the same way as Horn logic is to the class of recursively enumerable sets

The optical model and distorted-wave analysis of cross-sections for the scattering of the 24-28 MeV alpha particles from 28Si

The interaction of alpha particles with nuclei is still not well understood [1, 2]. In particular, difficulties arise in the scattering on A = 4n nuclei [3]. It seems that a simultaneous analysis of the elastic and inelastic processes permits solving some of these problems. Our analysis is based on the experimental data for the elastic and inelastic scattering of alpha particles on 28Si nuclei, obtained with the Cracow U-120 cyclotron. The angular distributions for the elastic [4] and inelastic [5] scattering leading to the first two excited states in 28Si were measured for the alpha bombarding energies of 24, 25, 26, 26.5, 27 and 28 MeV in the angular range from 2 5 ' to 179' (in lab system). The elastic process was described by means of the optical model and the inelastic one by the distorted wave theory. The possibility of resolving some of the optical model ambiguities was studied

The non-ethereal connection between christian spirituality and human health

Health is defined as a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being of a human being, not just a complete absence of disease or disability. Over the years, the basic definition proposed by the WHO has been extended to include another component: the ability to lead an effective social and economic life, as well as the spiritual dimension. The spiritual health of man since the beginning of human consciousness is inseparably connected with the relationship with God. In achieving full health, it is extremely important to achieve a harmonious interaction and coexistence of the spiritual sphere with the physical one. Religious practices are common attempts to create a bridge between the perceivable and measurable state of matter, and the experimental extrasensory spiritual world. Religious practices have been repeatedly associated with the treatment of different diseases and causing the improvement of physiological parameters may contribute to the actual improvement of human health. Prayer can affect the functioning of the body through various mechanisms. It was found that transcendental meditation with mystical dominance gives significant pro-health effects. Many publications prove that prayer and religious practices have a significant influence in regulating of autonomic, hormonal and mental systems. Practitioners less often suffer from diseases caused by excessive high stress level. Evidence for a positive correlation between practicing religious practices and measurable parameters, such as level of IL-6, lengths of telomeres, level of CD4 + T cell and mental health, was found. It seems likely that people devoting themselves to religious practices may be characterized by a lower incidence of certain somatic diseases. The results of the research suggest the need to re-open to other, not only “somatic” forms of therapy, which in a skilful and individualized way should complement the basic methods of therapy currently used. Health care workers, in addition to paying more attention to the spiritual background of existing somatic disorders, should work more closely with psychologists, psychiatrists and clergymen to coordinate a holistic approach to patient care, which should also include aspects of the individual’s spirituality.Zdrowie definiuje się jako stan pełnego fizycznego, umysłowego i społecznego dobrostanu człowieka, a nie wyłącznie całkowity brak choroby czy niepełnosprawności. Z czasem podstawową definicję zaproponowaną przez WHO rozszerzono o kolejne składniki: zdolność do prowadzenia efektywnego życia społecznego i ekonomicznego, a także wymiar duchowy. Zdrowie duchowe człowieka od początku istnienia ludzkiej świadomości nierozerwalnie związane jest relacją z Bogiem. W osiągnięciu pełni zdrowia niezwykle ważne jest osiągnięcie harmonijnego współdziałania i współistnienia sfery duchowej ze sferą cielesną, ich koegzystencji. Praktyki religijne są próbami utworzenia pomostu między postrzegalnym i mierzalnym światem materialnym, a doświadczalnym pozazmysłowo światem duchowym. Praktyki religijne zostały wielokrotnie powiązywane z leczeniem różnych chorób, a powodując poprawę parametrów fizjologicznych mogą przyczyniać się do faktycznej poprawy zdrowia człowieka. Modlitwa może wpływać na funkcjonowanie organizmu za pomocą różnych mechanizmów. Stwierdzono, że medytacja transcendentalna z dominacją mistyczną daje znaczące efekty prozdrowotne. Wielu publikacji potwierdza, że modlitwa i praktyki religijne mają istotny wpływ na regulację funkcjonowania układu autonomicznego, hormonalnego oraz psychiki. Osoby praktykujące rzadziej chorują na choroby powodowane nadmiernym stresem. W dotychczas przeprowadzonych badaniach naukowych znaleziono dowody na istnienie korzystnej korelacji pomiędzy uprawianiem praktyk religijnych, a mierzalnymi parametrami biologicznymi np. stężeniem IL 6, długością telomerów, liczbą limfocytów T CD4+ oraz wykładnikami zdrowia psychicznego. Wydaje się prawdopodobne, że osoby oddające się praktykom religijnym mogą charakteryzować się mniejszą częstością niektórych chorób somatycznych. Wyniki badań sugerują potrzebę ponownego otwarcia się na inne formy terapii, które w umiejętny i zindywidualizowany sposób powinny uzupełniać podstawowe „somatyczne” metody terapii stosowane aktualnie. Pracownicy ochrony zdrowia oprócz zwrócenia uwagi na duchowe tło istniejących zaburzeń somatycznych, powinni ściślej współpracować z psychologami, psychiatrami i duchownymi, w celu skoordynowania holistycznej opieki nad pacjentem, które powinno obejmować także aspekty duchowości jednostki.Wiktor Orlof : [email protected] Alifier: [email protected] Orlof - Studenckie Koło Naukowe przy Zakładzie Immunologii Klinicznej UMB Uniwersytet Medyczny w BiałymstokuMarek Alifier - Zakład Immunologii Klinicznej Uniwersytet Medyczny w BiałymstokuAl-Ayadhi, L.Y. (2005). Neurohormonal changes in medical students during academic stress. Ann Saudi Med., 25(1), 36-40.Ałfiejew, H. (2009). Misterium wiary. Wprowadzenie do Prawosławnej teologii dogmatycznej. Warszawa: Warszawska Metropolia Prawosławna, 223.Anderson, J.W., Liu, C., Kryscio, R.J. (2008). Blood pressure response to transcendental meditation: a meta-analysis. 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Spatial heterogeneity of willingness to pay for forest management

This study was carried out as a part of the POLFOREX project (“Forest as a public good. Evaluation of social and environmental benefits of forests in Poland to improve management efficiency”; PL0257) funded by EEA Financial Mechanism, Norwegian Financial Mechanism and Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education. Funding support is gratefully acknowledged.The paper investigates the spatial heterogeneity of public’s preferences for the implementation of a new country-wide forest management and protection program in Poland. Spatial econometric methods and high resolution geographical information system data related to forest characteristics are used to explain the variation in individual-specific willingness to pay (WTP) values, derived from a discrete choice experiment study. We find that respondents’ WTP is higher the closer they live to their nearest forest, and the scarcer forests are in the area where they live. Interestingly, the higher the ecological value of forests in respondents’ area, the more people prefer extending areas of national forest protection. We also investigate spatial patterns in individual-specific WTP scores and in latent class membership probabilities, finding that preferences are indeed spatially clustered. We argue that this clustering should be taken into account in forest management and policy-making.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe