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Implantation of subcutaneous heart rate data loggers in southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

Unlike most phocid species (Phocidae), Mirounga leonina (southern elephant seals) experience a catastrophic moult where they not only replace their hair but also their epidermis when ashore for approximately 1 month. Few studies have investigated behavioural and physiological adaptations of southern elephant seals during the moult fast, a particularly energetically costly life cycle’s phase. Recording heart rate is a reliable technique for estimating energy expenditure in the field. For the first time, subcutaneous heart rate data loggers were successfully implanted during the moult in two free-ranging southern elephant seals over 3–6 days. No substantial postoperative complications were encountered and consistent heart rate data were obtained. This promising surgical technique opens new opportunities for monitoring heart rate in phocid seals

Carbon dioxide volume estimated from seismic data after six years of injection in the oil field of Buracica, Bahia

AbstractCarbon dioxide has been injected since 1991 in the oil field of Buracica in the Recôncavo Basin in Brazil for EOR purposes. The CO2 gas is injected into the upper oil reservoirs, a 13 m-thick sandstone layer, at a depth of about 550 m. The reservoir is included in a tilted block dipping at an angle of 5 to 6° toward the south-east.A 3D seismic survey was carried out six years after the beginning of CO2 injection. Sensitivity studies concluded that the gas-invaded and the oil-filled parts of the reservoir show only a weak contrast between their mechanical properties so that their interface might not appear in the seismic sections.Directional dip filtering of the seismic data underlines horizontal events crossing the dipping layer interfaces. Some of them can be interpreted as the gas/oil contact. A careful picking and mapping of these events reveal two accumulations of carbon dioxide on each side of a system of N-S faults, with slightly different gas/oil contact levels. Estimation of the gas volume and of the density leads to a rough estimate of the mass of CO2 in place, indicating that about one third of the CO2 injected was stored in the reservoir

Environmental and physiological determinants of huddling behavior of molting female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The overall study was funded by the IPEV (Program 1037 HEnergES), doctoral fellowships of French Ministry of Higher Education and Research, the University of St Andrews, the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS) and the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland.While endotherms can rely on their insulation to reduce heat loss to adapt to cold environments, renewing of fur during molt impairs insulation while they have to perfuse the periphery to support epidermal tissues. The southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina undertakes an annual catastrophic molt while fasting on land in a wet, windy and cold environment. However, southern elephant seals show characteristic aggregation patterns that are predicted to reduce high metabolic costs during the molt. Between 2012 and 2016, 59 female elephant seals were tracked on land during their molt to study their aggregation behavior in relation to molt stage, habitat type and local weather conditions. Infrared thermography and stomach temperature loggers were used to observe variation in body surface and internal temperature in relation to molt stage and aggregation behavior. We found that thermal constraints varied during the molt, with a peak in surface temperature during the mid-stage of the molt. Wallows (mud pools) appear as favorable habitat to aggregate while molting. Indeed, wallows offered a warmer microclimate with greater ground temperature and lower wind speed. Moreover, there was a greater proportion of aggregated seals and larger group size in wallows. These aggregation patterns in wallows were influenced by local weather such that a greater proportion of seals were located in the center of the aggregation, and larger group size occurred during days of unfavorable meteorological conditions. We also observed a higher proportion of seals at mid-stage of molt amongst aggregated seals compared to isolated individuals. This aggregation behavior may reduce the cost of thermogenesis as surface body temperature and stomach temperature were cooler by 1.0 °C and 1.5 °C, respectively, in aggregated compared to isolated seals. As a consequence, huddling behavior may be thermally advantageous for female southern elephant seals during the molt.PostprintPeer reviewe

Local weather and body condition influence habitat use and movements on land of molting female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The overall study was funded by the Institut Polaire Français Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV program 1037 HEnergES), doctoral fellowships of French Ministry of Higher Education and Research, the University of St Andrews, the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS), and the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland.Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) are known to move and aggregate while molting, but little is known about their behavior on land during this time. In this study, 60 adult females were monitored (23 with GPS tags) during four molting seasons, between 2012 and 2016 at Kerguelen Archipelago, Indian Ocean. Population surveys were recorded each year (N = 230 daily counts), and habitat use was analyzed in relation to the stage of the molt and local weather. Based on stage of molt, habitat use, and movements on land, we classified the molt of elephant seals into three phases: (1) a “search phase” at the initial stage of molt when grass and wallow habitats were used and characterized by greater mean distances travelled on land per day compared with the two other phases; (2) a “resident phase”: during initial and mid‐stage of molt when animals were found in grass and wallow habitats but with less distance moved on land; and (3) a “termination phase” at the final stage of molt where grass and beach habitats were occupied with no change in distances. Windchill and solar radiation influenced individual distances moved per day (mean 590 ± 237.0 m) at the mid‐ and final stage of molt such that animals travelled greater distances on days of low windchill or high solar radiation. Individual variation in distance moved and relative habitat use were also linked to body mass index (BMI) at arrival on the colony, as females with higher BMI moved less and preferred beach habitat. Moreover, the individual rate of molt increased with the use of wallows. Aggregation rate tended to be negatively correlated with distances moved. We therefore suggest that individuals face an energetic trade‐off while molting, balancing energy expenditure between movement and thermoregulation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts. © 2016 The Author(s)

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages