Forecasting coal power plant retirement ages and lock-in with random forest regression

Averting dangerous climate change requires expediting the retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Given multiple barriers hampering this, here we forecast the future retirement ages of the world’s CFPPs. We use supervised machine learning to first learn from the past, determining the factors that influenced historical retirements. We then apply our model to a dataset of 6, 541 operating or under-construction units in 66 countries. Based on results, we also forecast associated carbon emissions and the degree to which countries are locked in to coal power. Contrasting with the historical average of roughly 40 years over 2010–2021, our model forecasts earlier retirement for 63% of current CFPP units. This results in 38% less emissions than if assuming historical retirement trends. However, the lock-in index forecasts considerable difficulties to retire CFPPs early in countries with high dependence on coal power, a large capacity or number of units, and young plant ages

Finance-based accounting of coal emissions

Most new coal-fired power plants are currently being constructed in Asia. These plants are financed by banks and investors, which in many instances reside elsewhere. This paper examines the international dimension of coal financing from commercial banks and institutional investors based on a newly constructed dataset. We analyse domestic as well as cross-border financial flows and propose a methodology to calculate ‘finance-based emissions’ associated with the construction of coal-fired power plants. Our results indicate that financial institutions from the United States, Europe and Japan play a major role in financing coal plants globally, especially in terms of loans, bonds and equity investment. From a finance-based perspective some countries account for a substantially larger share of coal emissions than under the commonly used territorial approach that assigns emissions to the country where they are released.BMBF, 01LA1826A, Ökonomie des Klimawandels - Verbundprojekt: Die politische Ökonomie eines globalen Kohleausstiegs (PEGASOS) - Teilprojekt 1: Koordination, Analyse der politischen Ökonomie vergangener Kohleausstieg

Coal transitions—part 1: a systematic map and review of case study learnings from regional, national, and local coal phase-out experiences

A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising unemployment is the most largely documented outcome in the sample. Policymakers at multiple levels are instrumental in facilitating coal transitions. They rely mainly on regulatory instruments to foster the transitions and compensation schemes or investment plans to deal with their transformative processes. Even though many models suggest that coal phase-outs are among the low-hanging fruits on the way to climate neutrality and meeting the international climate goals, our case studies analysis highlights the intricate political economy at work that needs to be addressed through well-designed and just policies.BMBF, 01LA1826A, Ökonomie des Klimawandels - Verbundprojekt: Die politische Ökonomie eines globalen Kohleausstiegs (PEGASOS) - Teilprojekt 1: Koordination, Analyse der politischen Ökonomie vergangener KohleausstiegeBMBF, 01LA1810A, Ökonomie des Klimawandels - Verbundprojekt: Die Zukunft fossiler Energieträger im Zuge von Treibhausgasneutralität (FFF) - Teilprojekt 1: Implementierung von AusstiegspfadenBMBF, 01LN1704A, Nachwuchsgruppe Globaler Wandel: CoalExit - Die Ökonomie des Kohleausstiegs - Identifikation von Bausteinen für Rahmenpläne zukünftiger regionaler StrukturwandelBMBF, 01LG1910A, Qualitätssicherung von IPCC-AR6: Chapter Scientist für WG III, Kapitel 2 (Emissions trends and drivers

Magnetic resonance imaging, magnetic resonance arthrography and ultrasonography for assessing rotator cuff tears in people with shoulder pain for whom surgery is being considered

Background Shoulder pain is a very common symptom. Disorders of the rotator cuff tendons due to wear or tear are among the most common causes of shoulder pain and disability. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), magnetic resonance arthrography (MRA) and ultrasound (US) are increasingly being used to assess the presence and size of rotator cuff tears to assist in planning surgical treatment. It is not known whether one imaging method is superior to any of the others.Objectives To compare the diagnostic test accuracy of MRI, MRA and US for detecting any rotator cuff tears (i.e. partial or full thickness) in people with suspected rotator cuff tears for whom surgery is being considered.Search methods We searched the Cochrane Register of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and LILACS from inception to February 2011. We also searched trial registers, conference proceedings and reference lists of articles to identify additional studies. No language or publication restrictions were applied.Selection criteria We included all prospective diagnostic accuracy studies that assessed MRI, MRA or US against arthroscopy or open surgery as the reference standard, in people suspected of having a partial or full thickness rotator cuff tear. We excluded studies that selected a healthy control group, or participants who had been previously diagnosed with other specific causes of shoulder pain such as osteoarthritis or rheumatoid arthritis. Studies with an excessively long period (a year or longer) between the index and reference tests were also excluded.Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently extracted data on study characteristics and results of included studies, and performed quality assessment according to QUADAS criteria. Our unit of analysis was the shoulder. for each test, estimates of sensitivity and specificity from each study were plotted in ROC space and forest plots were constructed for visual examination of variation in test accuracy. Meta-analyses were performed using the bivariate model to produce summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity. We were unable to formally investigate potential sources of heterogeneity because of the small number of studies.Main results We included 20 studies of people with suspected rotator cuff tears (1147 shoulders), of which six evaluated MRI and US (252 shoulders), or MRA and US (127 shoulders) in the same people. Many studies had design flaws, with the potential for bias, thus limiting the reliability of their findings. Overall, the methodological quality of the studies was judged to be low or unclear. for each test, we observed considerable heterogeneity in study results, especially between studies that evaluated US for the detection of full thickness tears and studies that evaluated MRA for the detection of partial thickness tears. the criteria for a positive diagnostic test (index tests and reference standard) varied between studies.Meta-analyses were not possible for studies that assessed MRA for detection of any rotator cuff tears or partial thickness tears. We found no statistically significant differences in sensitivity or specificity between MRI and US for detecting any rotator cuff tears (P = 0.13), or for detecting partial thickness tears (P = 1.0). Similarly, for the comparison between MRI, MRA and US for detecting full thickness tears, there was no statistically significant difference in diagnostic performance (P = 0.7). for any rotator cuff tears, the summary sensitivity and specificity were 98% (95% CI 92% to 99%) and 79% (95% CI 68% to 87%) respectively for MRI (6 studies, 347 shoulders), and 91% (95% CI 83% to 95%) and 85% (95% CI 74% to 92%) respectively for US (13 studies, 854 shoulders). for full thickness tears, the summary sensitivity and specificity were 94% (95% CI 85% to 98%) and 93% (95% CI 83% to 97%) respectively for MRI (7 studies, 368 shoulders); 94% (95% CI 80% to 98%) and 92% (95% CI 83% to 97%) respectively for MRA (3 studies, 183 shoulders); and 92% (95% CI 82% to 96%) and 93% (95% CI 81% to 97%) respectively for US (10 studies, 729 shoulders).Because few studies were direct head-to-head comparisons, we could not perform meta-analyses restricted to these studies. the test comparisons for each of the three classifications of the target condition were therefore based on indirect comparisons which may be prone to bias due to confounding.Authors' conclusions MRI, MRA and US have good diagnostic accuracy and any of these tests could equally be used for detection of full thickness tears in people with shoulder pain for whom surgery is being considered. the diagnostic performance of MRI and US may be similar for detection of any rotator cuff tears. However, both MRI and US may have poor sensitivity for detecting partial thickness tears, and the sensitivity of US may be much lower than that of MRI. the strength of evidence for all test comparisons is limited because most studies were small, heterogeneous and methodologically flawed, and there were few comparative studies. Well designed studies that directly compare MRI, MRA and US for detection of rotator cuff tears are needed.Universidade Federal de São Paulo, BrazilParker Institute, DenmarkOak FoundationTeesside University, UKUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Orthopaed & Traumatol, BR-04038032 São Paulo, BrazilMonash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Monash Dept Clin Epidemiol,Cabrini Hosp, Malvern, AustraliaUniv Birmingham, Birmingham, W Midlands, EnglandUniv Teesside, Hlth & Social Care Inst, Middlesbrough, Cleveland, EnglandUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Orthopaed & Traumatol, BR-04038032 São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Inquérito com paracoccidioidina em uma população da Bahia (Brasil)

No Município de Una, localizado ao Sul do Estado da Bahia, em área com registro freqüente de casos de leishmaniose tegumentar, foram estudados 177 indivíduos, na faixa etária entre três meses e 73 anos, através de provas intradérmicas com paracoccidioidina (antígeno péptido-polissacarídico do Paracoccidioides brasiliensis). Positividade foi obtida em dez indivíduos (5,6%). Somente foi considerada positiva a reação que apresentava enduração igual ou maior que 5 mm. Em nenhum dos casos positivos à paracoccidioidina havia evidência clínica de lesões blastomicóticas. Com os soros dos indivíduos positivos à paracoccidioidina, foram realizadas provas de imunodifusão dupla e contraimunoeletroforese, com resultados negativos para anticorpos circulantes anti-P. brasiliensis. Este dado indica que, em nenhum dos reatores à paracoccidioidina, havia processo infeccioso em atividade. O percentual de positividade obtido com a paracoccidioidina, em que pesem eventuais reações cruzadas com histoplasmose, sugere a ocorrência da paracoccidioidomicose na área estudada

Forecasting coal power plant retirement ages and lock-in with random forest regression

Averting dangerous climate change requires expediting the retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Given multiple barriers hampering this, here we forecast the future retirement ages of the world’s CFPPs. We use supervised machine learning to first learn from the past, determining the factors that influenced historical retirements. We then apply our model to a dataset of 6, 541 operating or under-construction units in 66 countries. Based on results, we also forecast associated carbon emissions and the degree to which countries are locked in to coal power. Contrasting with the historical average of roughly 40 years over 2010–2021, our model forecasts earlier retirement for 63% of current CFPP units. This results in 38% less emissions than if assuming historical retirement trends. However, the lock-in index forecasts considerable difficulties to retire CFPPs early in countries with high dependence on coal power, a large capacity or number of units, and young plant ages