Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models : effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change

Les dents moustériennes de la grotte Boccard, lieu-dit Bas-de-Morant (commune de Créancey, Côte-d'Or, Bourgogne)

La grotte Boccard se situe sur le territoire de la commune de Créancey en Côte-d'Or. Une stratigraphie assez simple y a été défi  nie avec une couche moustérienne qui a livré trois dents humaines permanentes : une incisive latérale supérieure gauche, une deuxième prémolaire supérieure droite et une deuxième molaire inférieure droite. Les études morphologique et métrique, descriptive et comparative de ces vestiges nous permettent de les intégrer dans la variabilité des dents néandertaliennes et de les exclure de celle des Homo sapiens sapiens récents. Ces dents sont saines, de dimensions moyennes. On ne note aucun trait particulier, si ce n'est pour la molaire inférieure qui présenterait, peut-être, une importante calcification de la pulpe dentaire.The Boccard cave is located in the Créancey municipality of the Côte-d’Or. A clear stratigraphy has been defined with a Mousterian layer in which three human permanent teeth were discovered: a lateral upper left incisor, an upper second right premolar and a lower second right molar. The metrical and morphological, descriptive and comparative studies of these remains enable us to integrate them within the variability of Neanderthal teeth and to exclude them from the variability of recent Homo sapiens sapiens. The Boccard cave teeth have no evidence of pathology, their dimensions are average and they present no special characteristics, except perhaps the lower molar, which may present a voluminous calcification of its pulp

Analytic Lifshitz black holes in higher dimensions

We generalize the four-dimensional R^2-corrected z=3/2 Lifshitz black hole to a two-parameter family of black hole solutions for any dynamical exponent z and for any dimension D. For a particular relation between the parameters, we find the first example of an extremal Lifshitz black hole. An asymptotically Lifshitz black hole with a logarithmic decay is also exhibited for a specific critical exponent depending on the dimension. We extend this analysis to the more general quadratic curvature corrections for which we present three new families of higher-dimensional D>=5 analytic Lifshitz black holes for generic z. One of these higher-dimensional families contains as critical limits the z=3 three-dimensional Lifshitz black hole and a new z=6 four-dimensional black hole. The variety of analytic solutions presented here encourages to explore these gravity models within the context of non-relativistic holographic correspondence.Comment: 14 page

Congressional campaign effects on candidate recognition and evaluation

To date, most congressional scholars have relied upon a standard model of American electoral behavior developed in the presidential setting. This research extends our knowledge of Congressmen's incumbency advantages and their sources. Candidate preference is viewed as a function of the relative recognition and evaluation of incumbents and their challengers, as well as of Democrats and Republicans. In the recognition model, contact with voters and media effects are quite important, but there is no direct role for party identification. Evaluation is a function of personal contact and party identification, and media variables are insignificant. Relative recognition, relative evaluation, and party identification are three important predictors of candidate preference, and incumbency itself adds little beyond what is contained in incumbent recognition and evaluation advantages.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45489/1/11109_2004_Article_BF00989756.pd

Lorentz- and CPT-violating models for neutrino oscillations

A class of calculable global models for neutrino oscillations based on Lorentz and CPT violation is presented. One simple example matches established neutrino data from accelerator, atmospheric, reactor, and solar experiments, using only two degrees of freedom instead of the usual five. A third degree of freedom appears in the model, and it naturally generates the MiniBooNE low-energy anomalies. More involved models in this class can also accommodate the LSND anomaly and neutrino-antineutrino differences of the MINOS type. The models predict some striking signals in various ongoing and future experiments.Comment: 17 pages two-column REVTe

Electronic Devices Based on Purified Carbon Nanotubes Grown By High Pressure Decomposition of Carbon Monoxide

The excellent properties of transistors, wires, and sensors made from single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) make them promising candidates for use in advanced nanoelectronic systems. Gas-phase growth procedures such as the high pressure decomposition of carbon monoxide (HiPCO) method yield large quantities of small diameter semiconducting SWNTs, which are ideal for use in nanoelectronic circuits. As-grown HiPCO material, however, commonly contains a large fraction of carbonaceous impurities that degrade properties of SWNT devices. Here we demonstrate a purification, deposition, and fabrication process that yields devices consisting of metallic and semiconducting nanotubes with electronic characteristics vastly superior to those of circuits made from raw HiPCO. Source-drain current measurements on the circuits as a function of temperature and backgate voltage are used to quantify the energy gap of semiconducting nanotubes in a field effect transistor geometry. This work demonstrates significant progress towards the goal of producing complex integrated circuits from bulk-grown SWNT material.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Nature Material

Developing and enhancing biodiversity monitoring programmes: a collaborative assessment of priorities

1.Biodiversity is changing at unprecedented rates, and it is increasingly important that these changes are quantified through monitoring programmes. Previous recommendations for developing or enhancing these programmes focus either on the end goals, that is the intended use of the data, or on how these goals are achieved, for example through volunteer involvement in citizen science, but not both. These recommendations are rarely prioritized. 2.We used a collaborative approach, involving 52 experts in biodiversity monitoring in the UK, to develop a list of attributes of relevance to any biodiversity monitoring programme and to order these attributes by their priority. We also ranked the attributes according to their importance in monitoring biodiversity in the UK. Experts involved included data users, funders, programme organizers and participants in data collection. They covered expertise in a wide range of taxa. 3.We developed a final list of 25 attributes of biodiversity monitoring schemes, ordered from the most elemental (those essential for monitoring schemes; e.g. articulate the objectives and gain sufficient participants) to the most aspirational (e.g. electronic data capture in the field, reporting change annually). This ordered list is a practical framework which can be used to support the development of monitoring programmes. 4.People's ranking of attributes revealed a difference between those who considered attributes with benefits to end users to be most important (e.g. people from governmental organizations) and those who considered attributes with greatest benefit to participants to be most important (e.g. people involved with volunteer biological recording schemes). This reveals a distinction between focussing on aims and the pragmatism in achieving those aims. 5.Synthesis and applications. The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes

The history of AIDS exceptionalism

In the history of public health, HIV/AIDS is unique; it has widespread and long-lasting demographic, social, economic and political impacts. The global response has been unprecedented. AIDS exceptionalism - the idea that the disease requires a response above and beyond "normal" health interventions - began as a Western response to the originally terrifying and lethal nature of the virus. More recently, AIDS exceptionalism came to refer to the disease-specific global response and the resources dedicated to addressing the epidemic. There has been a backlash against this exceptionalism, with critics claiming that HIV/AIDS receives a disproportionate amount of international aid and health funding

Design of the liraglutide effect and action in diabetes: evaluation of cardiovascular outcome results (LEADER) trial.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a multisystem disorder associated with a nearly twofold excess risk for a broad range of adverse cardiovascular outcomes including coronary heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Liraglutide is a human glucagon-like peptide receptor analog approved for use in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). STUDY DESIGN: To formally assess the cardiovascular safety of liraglutide, the Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes: Evaluation of cardiovascular outcome Results (LEADER) trial was commenced in 2010. LEADER is a phase 3B, multicenter, international, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial with long-term follow-up. Patients with T2DM at high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) who were either drug naive or treated with oral antihyperglycemic agents or selected insulin regimens (human NPH, long-acting analog, or premixed) alone or in combination with oral antihyperglycemics were eligible for inclusion. Randomized patients are being followed for up to 5 years. The primary end point is the time from randomization to a composite outcome consisting of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. CONCLUSIONS: LEADER commenced in September 2010, and enrollment concluded in April 2012. There were 9,340 patients enrolled at 410 sites in 32 countries. The mean age of patients was 64.3 ± 7.2 years, 64.3% were men, and mean body mass index was 32.5 ± 6.3 kg/m2. There were 7,592 (81.3%) patients with prior CVD and 1,748 (18.7%) who were high risk but without prior CVD. It is expected that LEADER will provide conclusive data regarding the cardiovascular safety of liraglutide relative to the current standard of usual care for a global population of patients with T2DM

Galectins-1 and-3 Increase in Equine Post-traumatic Osteoarthritis

Galectins are potent regulators of cell adhesion, growth and apoptosis in diverse cell types, including chondrocytes and synovial fibroblasts. Elevations in synovial fluid galectin-3 have been observed in rheumatoid arthritis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis and experimental inflammatory arthritis in animal models, whereas galectin-1 is thought to be protective. Less is known about galectins-1 and-3 in osteoarthritis (OA). Therefore, the purpose of this study was: (1) to determine whether galectin-1 and-3 synovial fluid concentrations and synovial membrane and cartilage histochemical staining were altered following osteochondral injury in an experimental equine osteoarthritis (OA) model and (2) to measure galectin-1 and-3 mRNA expression and synovial fluid concentrations in naturally occurring equine carpal OA. Synovial fluid galectin-1 and-3 concentrations were quantified using custom ELISAs in two research horse cohorts undergoing experimental OA induction (n = 5 and 4) and in a cohort of horses with naturally occurring carpal OA (n = 57). Galectin mRNA expression in synovial membrane and cartilage tissue obtained from carpal joints of horses with naturally occurring OA was measured using RT-qPCR, and galectin immunostaining was assessed in synovial membrane and osteochondral tissues in the experimental model (n = 5). Synovial fluid galectin-1 and-3 concentrations increased following experimental carpal osteochondral fragmentation. Cartilage galectin-1 mRNA expression increased with OA severity in naturally occurring disease. The superficial zone of healthy articular cartilage stained intensely for galectin-3 in sham-operated joints, whereas galectin-1 staining was nearly absent. Chondrocyte galectin-1 and-3 immunoreactivity increased following cartilage injury, particularly in galectin-1 positive chondrones. Galectins-1 and-3 are present in healthy equine synovial fluid and increase following post-traumatic OA. Healthy superficial zone chondrocytes express galectin-3, whereas galectin-1 chondrocyte staining is limited predominantly to chondrones and injured cartilage. Further work is needed to clarify the functions of galectins-1 and-3 in healthy and OA joints