Manufacturing Earnings and Cycles: New Evidence

In the time domain, the observed cyclical behavior of the real wage hides a range of economic in uences that give rise to cycles of di ering lengths and strengths. This may serve to produce a distorted picture of wage cyclicality. Here, we employ and develop frequency domain meth- ods that allow us to assess the relative contribution of cyclical frequency bands on real wage earnings. Earnings are decomposed into standard and overtime components. We also distinguish between consumption and production wages. Frequency domain analysis is carried out in re- lation to wages alone (the univariate case) and to wages in relation to a selected range of cyclical economic indicators (multivariate). We es- tablish that all key components of real wages are strongly pro-cyclical but display signicant co-variations with more than one frequency band. Moreover, components are by no means uniformly associated with each of the chosen proxies for the cycle.

Prospects for Deterrence, Escalation, Coercion and War in the Indo-Pacific

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThis project will provide an assessment of the prospects for war in the Indo-Pacific to inform the Navy strategy in this theater. The project will examine how regional actors assess the prospects for war, specifically their attitudes towards deterrence, escalation management on the use of force at sea, and the implications for possible conflict with Indo-Pacific competitors. The findings in this study will be used to assess the implications for US maritime strategy throughout the region. The study will highlight the need for the Navy to rediscover long-forgotten writings on deterrence, coercion, and strategy to analyze the dimensions of the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific.N3/N5 - Plans & StrategyThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

What's important when caring for a loved one? Population-based preference weights for the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for informal carers (ASCOT-Carer) for Austria.

PURPOSE: The Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for informal carers (ASCOT-Carer) can be used to assess long-term care-related quality of life (LTC-QoL) of adult informal carers of persons using LTC services. The ASCOT-Carer instrument has been translated into several languages, but preference weights reflecting the relative importance of different outcome states are only available for England so far. In this paper, we estimated preference weights for the German version of the ASCOT-Carer for Austria and investigated the value people place on different QoL-outcome states. METHODS: We used data from a best-worst scaling (BWS) experiment and estimated a scale-adjusted multinomial logit (S-MNL) model to elicit preference weights for the ASCOT-Carer domain-levels. Data were collected using an online survey of the Austrian general population (n = 1001). RESULTS: Top levels in the domains of 'Space and time to be yourself', 'Occupation' and 'Control over daily life' were perceived as providing the highest utility, and states with high needs in the same domains seen as particularly undesirable. 'Personal safety' was the only domain where levels were roughly equidistant. In all other domains, the difference between the top two levels ('ideal state' and 'no needs') was very small. CONCLUSION: The paper provides preference weights for the German version of ASCOT-Carer to be used in Austrian populations. Furthermore, the results give insight into which LTC-QoL-outcomes are seen as particularly (un)desirable, and may therefore help to better tailor services directed at informal carers and the persons they care for

Prospects for Deterrence, Escalation, Coercion and War in the Indo-Pacific

NPS NRP Project PosterThis project will provide an assessment of the prospects for war in the Indo-Pacific to inform the Navy strategy in this theater. The project will examine how regional actors assess the prospects for war, specifically their attitudes towards deterrence, escalation management on the use of force at sea, and the implications for possible conflict with Indo-Pacific competitors. The findings in this study will be used to assess the implications for US maritime strategy throughout the region. The study will highlight the need for the Navy to rediscover long-forgotten writings on deterrence, coercion, and strategy to analyze the dimensions of the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific.N3/N5 - Plans & StrategyThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Minimum Decision Cost for Quantum Ensembles

For a given ensemble of $N$ independent and identically prepared particles, we calculate the binary decision costs of different strategies for measurement of polarised spin 1/2 particles. The result proves that, for any given values of the prior probabilities and any number of constituent particles, the cost for a combined measurement is always less than or equal to that for any combination of separate measurements upon sub-ensembles. The Bayes cost, which is that associated with the optimal strategy (i.e., a combined measurement) is obtained in a simple closed form.Comment: 11 pages, uses RevTe

What can local authorities do to improve the social care-related quality of life of older adults living at home? Evidence from the Adult Social Care Survey

Local authorities spend considerable resources on social care at home for older adults. Given the expected growth in the population of older adults and budget cuts on local government, it is important to find efficient ways of maintaining and improving the quality of life of older adults. The ageing in place literature suggests that policies in other functions of local authorities may have a significant role to play. This study aims to examine the associations between social care-related quality of life (SCRQoL) in older adults and three potential policy targets for local authorities: (i) accessibility of information and advice, (ii) design of the home and (iii) accessibility of the local area. We used cross-sectional data from the English national Adult Social Care Survey (ASCS) 2010/2011 on service users aged 65 years and older and living at home (N=29,935). To examine the association between SCRQoL, as measured by the ASCOT, and three single-item questions about accessibility of information, design of the home and accessibility of the local area, we estimate linear and quantile regression models. After adjusting for physical and mental health factors and other confounders our findings indicate that SCRQoL is significantly lower for older adults who find it more difficult to find information and advice, for those who report that their home design is inappropriate for their needs and for those who find it more difficult to get around their local area. In addition, these three variables are as strongly associated with SCRQoL as physical and mental health factors. We conclude that in seeking to find ways to maintain and improve the quality of life of social care users living at home, local authorities could look more broadly across their responsibilities. Further research is required to explore the cost-effectiveness of these options compared to standard social care services