L’Etat actuel de la Pologne, par l’abbé Jean-Baptiste de Chèvremont (1702) : un regard surprenant sur la Pologne après l’élection d’Auguste II

This article is a short analysis of the depiction Poland-Lithuania made by de Chèvremont at the dawn of the 18th century. In his L’Etat actuel de la Pologne (the actual state of Poland), he voluntarily set aside history of Poland-Lithuania and presents himself as a “Political traveller”. He proposes first to show hidden forces acting behind the political scene as he considers earlier French authors failed to do so, a weakness which made their work incomplete. He then proposes a pessimistic analysis of the Polish décadence, de Chèvremont being one of the first to use this term, showing all major causes slowly leading Poland to a fateful end and why, according to him, Poland is already a lost cause.W artykule przedstawiono krótką analizę obrazu Korony I Litwy sporządzonego przez de Chèvremonta na początku XVIII wieku. W swoim L’Etat actuel de la Pologne („Prawdziwy obraz Polski”) de Chèvremont nazywa się „politycznym podróżnikiem”. Zaczyna od nakreślenia ukrytych sił działających poza sceną polityczną i zwraca uwagę, że nie udało się to wcześniejszym autorom francuskim, przez co ich prace były niekompletne. Następnie przedstawia pesymistyczną wizję polskiej dekadencji – de Chèvremont jest jednym z pierwszych, którzy używają tego określenia, pokazując główne przyczyny prowadzące Polskę powoli do smutnego końca. Zwraca również uwagę na to, dlaczego – jego zdaniem – Polska już przegrała swoją sprawę

Pierre des Noyers – uczony i pośrednik naukowy na dworze Ludwiki Marii Gonzagi

Pierre des Noyers, secretary of Queen of Poland Louise-Marie Gonzaga, is known for his role as a messenger, envoy, court journalist and sometimes propagandist. His work as an unofficial diplomat for the Queen and ambassador for France is less famous though no less interesting. Even though he was already quite involved in these time-consuming tasks, Pierre des Noyers also acted as a scientific intermediary for the quite curious Queen Louise-Marie of Poland. He maintained contacts with many scholars from France and Italy. He could nurture this network thanks to his position as an informal diplomat at the court of the Queen and his dedication to science in general. Even by discarding his most official and political letters, his known correspondence amounts to several hundred letters written in a period of around 50 years to various friends and scholars. Roberval, Gassendi, Boulliau, Hevelius or Pascal are among these contacts and he plays for most of them the role of a scientific intermediary sharing with them observations, books and anecdotes. His letters are filled with astronomical observations, prodigies and prophecies. Des Noyers was also a practitioner of science. Having possessed a rather large collection of scientific instruments he always sought the improved ones and his daily life was marked by scientific studies. He wrote meteorological bulletins for Academia del Cimento in Florence, studied the measurement of time, observed the sun and showed interest in the inner workings of the human body. This article will delve further into more scientific aspects of Pierre des Noyers’s life, both at the court of Louise-Marie and outside. The first part presents a rough overview of the secretary’s contacts in the scientific environment of 17th Century France and how they were used to connect scholars from Poland with this environment. The second part of this work presents Pierre des Noyers’s practice of science as a tool to understand the world and for which utmost diligence in measurement and practice is required. The last part focuses on des Noyers’s application of this scientific method in two, now pseudo-scientific fields: astrology and divination.Pierre des Noyers, sekretarz Ludwiki Marii Gonzagi – królowej Polski, znany jest jako poseł, ambasador, nadworny dziennikarz oraz propagandysta. Jego praca jako nieoficjalnego dyplomaty królowej i ambasadora Francji jest natomiast mniej znana, chociaż nie mniej interesująca. Pomimo tego czasochłonnego zaangażowania, Pierre des Noyers działał również jako pośrednik naukowy dla zaciekawionej królowej. Utrzymywał on kontakty z wieloma uczonymi z Francji i Włoch, a do rozwoju tej sieci powiązań przyczyniała się zarówno pozycja nieformalnego dyplomaty na dworze królowej jak i oddanie nauce. Nie wliczając listów oficjalnych i politycznych, jego korespondencja prywatna, prowadzona z przyjaciółmi i uczonymi na przestrzeni 50 lat, liczy kilkaset listów. Wśród tych kontaktów są Roberval, Gassendi, Boulliau, Heweliusz oraz Pascal, a dla większości z nich odgrywa on rolę naukowego pośrednika dzieląc się z nimi obserwacjami, książkami i anegdotami. Jego korespondencja obfituje w obserwacje astronomiczne, przepowiednie i opisy zjawisk nadzwyczajnych. Pierre des Noyers prowadził również własne badania. Posiadając stosunkowo liczną kolekcję instrumentów naukowych zawsze poszukiwał ulepszonych narzędzi, a jego codzienne życie znaczone było pracą badawczą. Pisał biuletyny meteorologiczne dla florenckiej Academia del Cimento, prowadził badania nad pomiarem czasu, obserwał słońce oraz interesował się wewnętrznym funkcjonowaniem ludzkiego ciała. W niniejszym artykule zagłębimy się w bardziej naukowe aspekty życia Pierre’a des Noyers, zarówno na dworze Ludwiki Marii, jak i poza nim. W pierwszej części przedstawiony został zarys jego kontaktów w środowisku naukowym XVII-wiecznej Francji oraz w jaki sposób były one wykorzystywane do łączenia z tym środowiskiem uczonych z Polski. Druga część pracy przedstawia jego badania naukowe, które traktował jako narzędzie do zrozumienia świata, do czego potrzebna jest najwyższa staranność w pomiarze i praktyce. Ostatnia część skupia się na zastosowaniu przez des Noyersa tej naukowej metody w dwóch, obecnie pseudonaukowych dziedzinach: astrologii i wróżbiarstwie

Automatic generation of large ensembles for air quality forecasting using the Polyphemus system

International audienceThis paper describes a method to automatically generate a large ensemble of air quality simulations. Such an ensemble may be useful for quantifying uncertainty, improving forecasts, evaluating risks, identifying process weaknesses, etc. The objective is to take into account all sources of uncertainty: input data, physical formulation and numerical formulation. The leading idea is to build different chemistry-transport models in the same framework, so that the ensemble generation can be fully controlled. Large ensembles can be generated with a Monte Carlo simulations that address at the same time the uncertainties in the input data and in the model formulation. This is achieved using the Polyphemus system, which is flexible enough to build various different models. The system offers a wide range of options in the construction of a model: many physical parameterizations, several numerical schemes and different input data can be combined. In addition, input data can be perturbed. In this paper, some 30 alternatives are available for the generation of a model. For each alternative, the options are given a probability, based on how reliable they are supposed to be. Each model of the ensemble is defined by randomly selecting one option per alternative. In order to decrease the computational load, as many computations as possible are shared by the models of the ensemble. As an example, an ensemble of 101 photochemical models is generated and run for the year 2001 over Europe. The models' performance is quickly reviewed, and the ensemble structure is analyzed. We found a strong diversity in the results of the models and a wide spread of the ensemble. It is noteworthy that many models turn out to be the best model in some regions and some dates

Uncertainty Estimation and Decomposition based on Monte Carlo and Multimodel Photochemical Simulations

This paper investigates (1) the main sources of uncertainties in ground-level ozone simulations, (2) the best method to estimate them, and (3) the decomposition of the errors in measurement, representativeness and modeling errors. It first compares the Monte Carlo approach, solely based on perturbations in the input fields and parameters, with the multimodel approach, which relies on an ensemble of models with different chemical, physical and numerical formulations. Two ensembles of 100 members are generated for the full year 2001 over Europe. Their uncertainty estimations for ground-level ozone are compared. For both ensembles, we select a sub-ensemble that minimizes the variance of the rank histogram, so that it is supposed to better represent the uncertainties. The multimodel (sub-)ensemble shows more variability and seems to better represent the uncertainties (especially for the localization of the covariances) than the Monte Carlo (sub-)ensemble. The main sources of the uncertainties originating in the input fields and parameters are then identified with a linear regression of the output ozone concentrations on the applied perturbations. The uncertainty ranges due to the different input fields and parameters are computed at urban, rural and background observation stations. For both the multimodel ensemble and the Monte Carlo ensemble, ozone boundary conditions play an important role, even at continental scale; but many other fields or parameters appear to be a significant source of uncertainty. The discrepancies between observations and model simulations are due to measurement errors, representativeness errors and modeling errors (i.e., shortcomings in the model formulation or in its input data). Using two independent methods, we estimate the variance of the representativeness errors. We conclude that the measurement errors are comparatively low, and that the representativeness errors can explain at least a third of the variance of the discrepancies

Superconducting quantum node for entanglement and storage of microwave radiation

Superconducting circuits and microwave signals are good candidates to realize quantum networks, which are the backbone of quantum computers. We have realized a quantum node based on a 3D microwave superconducting cavity parametrically coupled to a transmission line by a Josephson ring modulator. We first demonstrate the time-controlled capture, storage and retrieval of an optimally shaped propagating microwave field, with an efficiency as high as 80%. We then demonstrate a second essential ability, which is the timed-controlled generation of an entangled state distributed between the node and a microwave channel.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary information can be downloaded as the ancillary file her

Proceedings of Abstracts, School of Physics, Engineering and Computer Science Research Conference 2022

© 2022 The Author(s). This is an open-access work distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. For further details please see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Plenary by Prof. Timothy Foat, ‘Indoor dispersion at Dstl and its recent application to COVID-19 transmission’ is © Crown copyright (2022), Dstl. This material is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected] present proceedings record the abstracts submitted and accepted for presentation at SPECS 2022, the second edition of the School of Physics, Engineering and Computer Science Research Conference that took place online, the 12th April 2022

“This Cockaigne, where things change so often” : considerations of Pierre des Noyers’, secretary of the Queen Louise-Marie, about late 17th century Poland (1645-1693)

Ce travail est une étude systématique de la correspondance de Pierre des Noyers, décortiquée et recontextualisée pour mieux comprendre à la fois le regard posé par le secrétaire sur la Pologne de son temps mais surtout son évolution au cours de plusieurs décennies. Il permet notamment de déceler de nombreuses références aux auteurs polonais dans les réflexions du secrétaire et de la qualité de ses connaissances sur son pays d’adoption. Loin d’être simplement secrétaire de la reine Louise-Marie, il devient au fil des années un véritable agent au service de la souveraine et de la France et relie les deux cours par une intense activité épistolaire, tout en s’imprégnant complètement de la mentalité nobiliaire du pays, notamment son désir de liberté. La première partie est une étude sur la Pologne telle que la découvre Pierre des Noyers en 1645, à savoir sa géographie, ses institutions et l’idéologie qui anime la noblesse du pays. Elle résume à la fois les contraintes que rencontre Louise-Marie dans son action politique ainsi que l’univers mental dans lequel Pierre des Noyers se fond peu à peu. La deuxième partie est une étude de l’entourage de la reine de Pologne, particulièrement entre 1660 et 1667, tel qu’il apparaît dans la correspondance de son secrétaire. Cette représentation est capitale, car c’est l’image du parti de la reine tel qu’il est vu en France et elle influence grandement les instructions envoyées par la France à ses ambassadeurs. La troisième partie se concentre sur Pierre des Noyers lui-même, notamment ses centres d’intérêts et son rôle après la mort de sa protectrice. Grâce la confiance qu’il a acquise au sein des Polonais partisans de la reine de Pologne et de ses projets politiques, Pierre des Noyers devient l’un de leurs canaux d’expression auprès de la France.This work is a systematic study of Pierre des Noyers’ correspondence, analysed and contextualized with the aim to understand at the same time the secretary’s considerations about Poland but mostly their evolution decade after decade. Such study allows us to find numerous references to Polish thinkers of the time and assess the general quality of his knowledge about his new motherland. Far from being just a secretary for Louise-Marie, Pierre des Noyers becomes year after year a true agent at the service of the queen as well as France, who links both courts thanks to an intense epistolary activity, all while being strongly influenced by the Polish nobility’s mentality, especially their desire for liberty. The first part is a study on Poland in 1645, at the time when Pierre des Noyers settles in Warsaw : its geography, institutions and the nobility’s ideology. Here are summarized constraints encountered by the queen Louise-Marie while pursuing her political ageda as well as the mental universe in which Pierre des Noyers slowly blends in. The second part deals with the queen’s entourage, especially between 1660 and 1667, according to her secretary’s correspondence. This representation is of crucial importance because this is the picture that France gets about the queen’s political party, which in turn greatly influences France’s actions and instructions sent to their ambassadors. The last part is about Pierre des Noyers himself; especially his various interests and his role after Louise-Marie’s death. Thanks to the general confidence he inspires among the queen’s partisans, Pierre des Noyers becomes one of their main channel of expression and influence in France

“This Cockaigne, where things change so often” : considerations of Pierre des Noyers’, secretary of the Queen Louise-Marie, about late 17th century Poland (1645-1693)

Ce travail est une étude systématique de la correspondance de Pierre des Noyers, décortiquée et recontextualisée pour mieux comprendre à la fois le regard posé par le secrétaire sur la Pologne de son temps mais surtout son évolution au cours de plusieurs décennies. Il permet notamment de déceler de nombreuses références aux auteurs polonais dans les réflexions du secrétaire et de la qualité de ses connaissances sur son pays d’adoption. Loin d’être simplement secrétaire de la reine Louise-Marie, il devient au fil des années un véritable agent au service de la souveraine et de la France et relie les deux cours par une intense activité épistolaire, tout en s’imprégnant complètement de la mentalité nobiliaire du pays, notamment son désir de liberté. La première partie est une étude sur la Pologne telle que la découvre Pierre des Noyers en 1645, à savoir sa géographie, ses institutions et l’idéologie qui anime la noblesse du pays. Elle résume à la fois les contraintes que rencontre Louise-Marie dans son action politique ainsi que l’univers mental dans lequel Pierre des Noyers se fond peu à peu. La deuxième partie est une étude de l’entourage de la reine de Pologne, particulièrement entre 1660 et 1667, tel qu’il apparaît dans la correspondance de son secrétaire. Cette représentation est capitale, car c’est l’image du parti de la reine tel qu’il est vu en France et elle influence grandement les instructions envoyées par la France à ses ambassadeurs. La troisième partie se concentre sur Pierre des Noyers lui-même, notamment ses centres d’intérêts et son rôle après la mort de sa protectrice. Grâce la confiance qu’il a acquise au sein des Polonais partisans de la reine de Pologne et de ses projets politiques, Pierre des Noyers devient l’un de leurs canaux d’expression auprès de la France.This work is a systematic study of Pierre des Noyers’ correspondence, analysed and contextualized with the aim to understand at the same time the secretary’s considerations about Poland but mostly their evolution decade after decade. Such study allows us to find numerous references to Polish thinkers of the time and assess the general quality of his knowledge about his new motherland. Far from being just a secretary for Louise-Marie, Pierre des Noyers becomes year after year a true agent at the service of the queen as well as France, who links both courts thanks to an intense epistolary activity, all while being strongly influenced by the Polish nobility’s mentality, especially their desire for liberty. The first part is a study on Poland in 1645, at the time when Pierre des Noyers settles in Warsaw : its geography, institutions and the nobility’s ideology. Here are summarized constraints encountered by the queen Louise-Marie while pursuing her political ageda as well as the mental universe in which Pierre des Noyers slowly blends in. The second part deals with the queen’s entourage, especially between 1660 and 1667, according to her secretary’s correspondence. This representation is of crucial importance because this is the picture that France gets about the queen’s political party, which in turn greatly influences France’s actions and instructions sent to their ambassadors. The last part is about Pierre des Noyers himself; especially his various interests and his role after Louise-Marie’s death. Thanks to the general confidence he inspires among the queen’s partisans, Pierre des Noyers becomes one of their main channel of expression and influence in France

Automatic calibration of an ensemble for uncertainty estimation and probabilistic forecast: Application to air quality

International audienceThis paper addresses the problem of calibrating an ensemble for uncertainty estimation. The calibration method involves (1) a large, automatically generated ensemble, (2) an ensemble score such as the variance of a rank histogram, and (3) the selection based on a combinatorial algorithm of a sub-ensemble that minimizes the ensemble score. The ensemble scores are the Brier score (for probabilistic forecasts), or derived from the rank histogram or the reliability diagram. These scores allow us to measure the quality of an uncertainty estimation, and the reliability and the resolution of an ensemble. The ensemble is generated on the Polyphemus modeling platform so that the uncertainties in the models' formulation and their input data can be taken into account. A 101-member ensemble of ground-ozone simulations is generated with full chemistry-transport models run across Europe during the year 2001. This ensemble is evaluated with the aforementioned scores. Several ensemble calibrations are carried out with the different ensemble scores. The calibration makes it possible to build 20- to 30-member ensembles which greatly improves the ensemble scores. The calibrations essentially improve the reliability, while the resolution remains unchanged. The spatial validity of the uncertainty maps is ensured by cross validation. The impact of the number of observations and observation errors is also addressed. Finally, the calibrated ensembles are able to produce accurate probabilistic forecasts and to forecast the uncertainties, even though these uncertainties are found to be strongly time-dependent