Essays in Energy Economics

This thesis presents four essays in energy economics. The first essay investigates one of the workhorse models of resource economics, the Hotelling model of an inter-temporally optimizing resource extracting firm. The Hotelling model provides a convincing theory of fundamental concepts like resource scarcity, but very few empirical validations of the model have been conducted. This essay attempts to empirically validate the Hotelling model by first expanding it to include exploration activity and market power and then using a newly constructed data set for the uranium mining industry to test whether a major resource extracting mining firm in the industry is following the theory’s predictions. The results show that the theory is rejected in all considered settings. The second and third essays investigate the difference in market outcomes under spot-market based trade as compared to long-term contract based trade in oligopolistic markets with investments. The second essay investigates analytically the difference in market outcomes in an electricity market setting, showing that investments and consumer welfare may be higher under spot-market based trade than under long-term contracts. The third essay proposes techniques to solve large-scale models of this kind, empirically, by exploring the practicability of this approach in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. The final essay investigates the influence of policy uncertainty on investment decisions. With France debating the role of nuclear technology, this essay analyses how policy uncertainty regarding nuclear power in France may feature in the French and European power sector. Applying a stochastic model for the European power system, the analysis shows that the costs of uncertainty in this particular application are rather low compared to the overall costs of a nuclear phase-out

German Nuclear Policy Reconsidered: Implications for the Electricity Market

In the aftermath of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, German nuclear policy has been reconsidered. This paper demonstrates the economic effects of an accelerated nuclear phase-out on the German electricity generation sector. A detailed optimization model for European electricity markets is used to analyze two scenarios with different lifetimes for nuclear plants (phase-out vs. prolongation). Based on political targets, both scenarios assume significant electricity demand reductions and a high share of generation from renewable energy sources in Germany. Our principal findings are: First, nuclear capacities are mainly replaced by longer lifetimes of existing coal-fired plants and the construction of new gas-fired plants. Second, fossil fuel-based generation and power imports increase, while power exports are reduced in response to the lower nuclear generation. Third, despite the increased fossil generation, challenging climate protection goals can still be achieved within the framework of the considered scenarios. Finally, system costs and electricity prices are clearly higher. We conclude that the generation sector can generally cope with an accelerated nuclear phase-out under the given assumptions. Yet, we emphasize that such a policy requires a substantial and costly transformation of the supply and the demand side.Nuclear policy; climate protection; renewable energy; electricity market modeling

Exploring the role of phase-out policies for low-carbon energy transitions: the case of the German Energiewende

The energy sector plays a significant role in reaching the ambitious climate policy target of limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2°C. To this end, technological change has to be redirected and accelerated in the direction of zero-carbon solutions. Given the urgency and magnitude of the climate change challenge it has been argued that this calls for a policy mix which simultaneously supports low-carbon solutions and also deliberately drives the discontinuation of the established technological regime. Yet, the effect of such phase-out policies on the development and diffusion of low-carbon technologies has received little attention in empirical research so far. This paper addresses this gap by taking the case of the transition of the German electricity generation system towards renewable energies – the so-called Ener-giewende. Based on a survey of innovation activities of German manufacturers of renewable power gener-ation technologies conducted in 2014 it explores the impact such destabilization policies – most prominent-ly Germany’s nuclear phase-out policy – may have on technological change in renewable energies. By drawing on descriptive statistics and combining insights from earlier regression analyses we find evidence that Germany’s nuclear phase-out policy had a positive influence on manufacturers’ innovation expendi-tures for renewable energies and was seen as the by far most influential policy instrument for the further expansion of renewable energies in Germany. The insights resulting from our explorative analysis have important implications for the literature on policy mixes and sustainability transitions regarding the ‘flip sides’ to innovation and the crucial importance of destabilization policies for unleashing ‘destructive crea-tion’. We close by discussing policy repercussions for ongoing debates on policies for accelerating the phase-out of coal to meet climate change targets

The future of nuclear power in France: an analysis of the costs of phasing-out

Nuclear power is an important pillar in electricity generation in France. However, the French nuclear power plant fleet is ageing, and the possibility of reducing the technology's share in power generation or even a complete phase-out has been increasingly discussed. This paper focuses on three inter-related questions: First, what are the costs of phasing-out nuclear power in France? Second, who has to bear these costs, i.e., how much of the costs will be passed on to the rest of the European power system? And third, what effect does the uncertainty regarding future nuclear policy in France have on system costs? Applying a stochastic optimization model for the European electricity system, the analysis showed that additional system costs in France of a nuclear phase-out amount up to 76 billion is an element of(2010). Additional costs are mostly borne by the French power system. Surprisingly, the analysis found that the costs of uncertainty are rather limited. Based on the results, it can be concluded that a commitment regarding nuclear policy reform is only mildly beneficial in terms of system cost savings. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Multi-unit multiple bid auctions in balancing markets: An agent-based Q-learning approach

There is an ongoing debate on the appropriate auction design for competitive electricity balancing markets. Uniform (UPA) and discriminatory price auctions (DPA), the prevalent designs in use today, are assumed to have different properties with regard to prices and efficiencies. These properties cannot be thoroughly described using analytical methods due to the complex strategy space in repeated multi-unit multiple bid auctions. Therefore, using an agent-based Q-learning model, we simulate the strategic bidding behaviour in these auctions under a variety of market conditions. We find that UPAs lead to higher prices in all analysed market settings. This is mainly due to the fact that players engage in bid shading more aggressively. Moreover, small players in UPAs learn to free ride on the price setting of large players and earn higher profits per unit of capacity owned, while they are disadvantaged in DPAs. UPAs also generally feature higher efficiencies, but there are exceptions to this observation. If demand is varying and players are provided with additional information about scarcity in the market, market prices increase only in case asymmetric players are present. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

The Costs of Power Interruptions in Germany: A Regional and Sectoral Analysis

A high standard of security of electricity supply comes at serious electricity system costs. However, these system costs have to be balanced with the economic costs induced by an insecure supply of electricity. Following a macroeconomic approach, we analyze the economic costs imposed by potential power interruptions in Germany. Using an extensive dataset on industries and households, we estimate both Values of Lost Load and the associated hourly costs of power interruptions for different German regions and sectors. We find that interruption costs vary significantly over time, between sectors and regions. Peaking at midday on a Monday in December at 750 Mio Euro per hour, the average total national outage costs amount to approximately 430 Mio Euro per hour. A missing gigawatt hour creates average outage costs of about 7.6 Mio Euro

The reference forecast of the German energy transition-An outlook on electricity markets

The enactment of the Energy Concept by the German Government in 2010 set ambitious targets for the future energy transition in Germany. The most prominent goals include a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction of the economy and an increase in the share of renewable energy in the whole energy sector. Since the long run effects of these policy measures are hard to assess, science-based policy evaluation methods are needed to identify weak points and areas with a need for action. This paper presents the results of the German Energy Reference Forecast with a focus on the electricity sector. It is based on an investment and dispatch model for the European electricity sector over the planning horizon of the 'Energiewende' up to 2050, with an emphasis on the time period up to 2030. We find that almost all targets of the German 'Energiewende' are not reached, for the case in which no further measures are undertaken. In particular reductions in GHG emissions fall short to the target value. Contrary to the negative results, e.g., regarding GHG-emissions as well as gross electricity consumption, generation from renewable energy sources will exceed the policy's target value. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved