Same data, different conclusions: Radical dispersion in empirical results when independent analysts operationalize and test the same hypothesis

In this crowdsourced initiative, independent analysts used the same dataset to test two hypotheses regarding the effects of scientists’ gender and professional status on verbosity during group meetings. Not only the analytic approach but also the operationalizations of key variables were left unconstrained and up to individual analysts. For instance, analysts could choose to operationalize status as job title, institutional ranking, citation counts, or some combination. To maximize transparency regarding the process by which analytic choices are made, the analysts used a platform we developed called DataExplained to justify both preferred and rejected analytic paths in real time. Analyses lacking sufficient detail, reproducible code, or with statistical errors were excluded, resulting in 29 analyses in the final sample. Researchers reported radically different analyses and dispersed empirical outcomes, in a number of cases obtaining significant effects in opposite directions for the same research question. A Boba multiverse analysis demonstrates that decisions about how to operationalize variables explain variability in outcomes above and beyond statistical choices (e.g., covariates). Subjective researcher decisions play a critical role in driving the reported empirical results, underscoring the need for open data, systematic robustness checks, and transparency regarding both analytic paths taken and not taken. Implications for organizations and leaders, whose decision making relies in part on scientific findings, consulting reports, and internal analyses by data scientists, are discussed

Pattern of bone erosion and bone proliferation in psoriatic arthritis hands: a high-resolution computed tomography and radiography follow-up study during adalimumab therapy

Objectives: To investigate the pattern and development of bone erosion and proliferation in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) during treatment with adalimumab, using high-resolution computed tomography (CT) and conventional radiography. Method: Forty-one biologic-naive PsA patients were initiated with adalimumab 40 mg subcutaneously every other week. CT and radiography of the 2nd-5th metacarpophalangeal (MCP), proximal interphalangeal (PIP), and distal interphalangeal (DIP) joints were conducted at baseline (n = 41) and after 24 weeks (n = 32). Changes in bone erosion and proliferation are described and the imaging modalities compared. Results: Ninety percent of bone erosions detected by CT were located in the metacarpal heads, and most frequently in the 2nd-3rd MCP joints. Radial (37%) and ulnar (31%) surfaces were more frequently eroded than dorsal (10%) and palmar (22%) sites. Using CT, bone proliferations were located primarily on the sides of the distal part of the DIP joints (43% of all proliferations), but also proximally in DIP (17%) and MCP joints (27%). For bone erosions and proliferations, respectively, radiography showed a low sensitivity (17% and 26%), but a high specificity (98% and 95%) and accuracy (93% and 87%), with CT as the gold standard reference. Neither CT nor radiography revealed statistically significant changes in bone erosion or proliferation scores between baseline and follow-up. Conclusions: Patterns of bone erosion and proliferation in PsA hands were revealed in more detail by CT than by radiography. No overall progression or repair could be detected during adalimumab treatment with either of the methods

No overall damage progression despite persistent inflammation in adalimumab-treated psoriatic arthritis patients: results from an investigator-initiated 48-week comparative magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography and radiography trial

Methods. A 48-week prospective open-label investigator-initiated trial of 41 biologic-naive patients treated with 40 mg adalimumab every other week. Hand CT, MRI (according to the PsA MRI scoring system method) and radiography (Sharp-van der Heijde method) were obtained at weeks 0, 6 (only MRI), 24 and 48. Clinical response was assessed by the PsA Response Criteria (PsARC). Results. In the 23 PsARC responders at week 48, significant decreases from baseline in MRI synovitis (mean -2.0, P http://clinicaltrials.gov/, NCT01465438

Quantification of allochthonous nutrient input into freshwater bodies by herbivorous waterbirds

1. Waterbirds are considered to import large quantities of nutrients to freshwater bodies but quantification of these loadings remains problematic. We developed two general models to calculate such allochthonous nutrient inputs considering food intake, foraging behaviour and digestive performance of waterbirds feeding in terrestrial habitats: an intake model (IM), mainly based on an allometric relationship for energy requirements and a dropping model (DM), based on allometric relationships for defaecation.2. Reviewed data of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) content of herbivorous food varied according to diet type (foliage, seeds and roots), season and fertilization. For model parameterization average foliage diet contained 38.20 mg N g&minus;1 and 3.21 mg P g&minus;1 (dry weight), whereas mean faeces composition was 45.02 mg N g&minus;1 and 6.18 mg P g&minus;1.3. Daily allochthonous nutrient input increased with body mass ranging from 0.29 g N and 0.03 g P in teals Anas crecca to 5.69 g N and 0.57 g P in mute swans Cygnus olor. Results from IM differed from those of DM from ducks to swans by 63&ndash;108% for N and by &minus;4 to 23% for P. Model uncertainty was lowest for the IM and mainly caused by variation in estimates of food retention time (RT). In DM food RT and dropping mass determined model uncertainty in similar extent.4. Exemplarily applying the models to Dutch wetlands resulted in mean annual contribution of herbivorous waterbirds to allochthonous nutrient loading of 382.8 &plusmn; 167.1 tonnes N a&minus;1and 34.7 &plusmn; 2.3 tonnes P a&minus;1, respectively, which corresponds to annual surface-water loadings of 1.07 kg N ha&minus;1 and 0.10 kg P ha&minus;1.5. There was a distinct seasonal pattern with peak loadings in January, when bird abundances were highest. Lowest inputs were in August, when bird abundance and nutrient content in food was low and birds foraged less in terrestrial habitats. Three-quarters of all nutrient input was contributed by greater white-fronted goose Anser albifrons, greylag goose Anser anser, wigeon Anas penelope and barnacle goose Branta leucopsis alone.6. We provide general, easy to use calculation methods for the estimation of allochthonous nutrient inputs by waterbirds, which are applicable to a range of waterbird species, a variety of potential diets and feeding behaviours, and across spatial scales. Such tools may greatly assist in the planning and execution of management actions for wetland nutrient budgets.<br /