Guidelines for Policy Modellers - 30 years on: New Tricks or Old Dogs?

Systems thinking and the use of modelling to assist in natural resources decision making started in the early 1960’s (Forrester, 1961). In the early 1970’s a multidisciplinary program was established in CSIRO’s Division of Land Resources Management to, among other issues, research and develop models to assist in the resolution of persistent and multi-faceted environmental issues. The authors of this paper were members of that group. We recently decided to look at what has been learned about these reasonably intractable problems over the more than 30 years period since. If it is true that the half life of modelling papers is around eight years and, apparently, decreasing (Haggett, 2005), then we can expect that the wheel has often been reinvented. So we describe issues as they were expressed up to the early 1980’s and compare and contrast them with concerns after the turn of the century in two contexts - the development of systems thinking in modelling and deciding when and how to model. Three general criticisms of systems analysis were evident then: (1) the models were highly mathematical and therefore opaque to the user, and it was hard even for ’experts’ to explain unexpected findings; (2) welfare, as expressed by economic or utilitarian criteria, was considered to be poorly represented in systems practice (systems thinking was being viewed here as rational, while it was slowly being recognized that apparently irrational behaviour is an important part of the social fabric and could not be ignored (Glazer, 1978)); (3) the systems approach relied on lists derived from planners, but in the absence of “systems thinking” guidelines they were only lists of what planners thought of doing, not comprehensive in any strong sense. These three major drawbacks still exist and in much the same form today. Development of systems thinking is now much more widespread. The applications gap does not appear to be filled, though there have been attempts to broaden the client base by participative model construction to reach a consensus of what is agreeable to most stakeholders. “Irrational behaviour” still threatens systems analysis and comes in several forms. There is lack of acceptance that utilitarian criteria should be used to drive the solution. And the consequences of implementing a model’s solution may lead to unforeseen consequences and behaviours by and to affected parties. Very few papers have been written in recent years on guidelines on when to model and when not to do so. There seems to be no connection with earlier publications. The field does not appear to have progressed. We perceive a world in which those who can, model, and those who can’t still feel little need to try. It is to be hoped that interest in the issues of when and why to model will not wane. It would be a shame, perhaps a source of conflict, if modelling remained yet another marker that separates a ‘them’ from an ‘us’. Some of us have now been much closer to decision-makers. Our observations include: (a) Timing is critical in decision-making. Sometimes there are a few hours for deliberation, for others decades. A modeller has to be close to help with the quick ones. Advice that comes too late will not be relevant. (b) Close contact with decision makers is essential, as is their training. (c) A contract from the client is a desirable/necessary precondition. (d) Trust, and lack of it, will always be important in accepting advice. (e) Committees, especially those charged with doing something and feel that they cannot progress without assistance, are good targets. But committees, like modelling contracts, can be solely methods of delaying decisions. (f) Modelling physical and biological systems is less contentious than using utility to guide advice

INVERSE SCATTERING TRANSFORM ANALYSIS OF STOKES-ANTI-STOKES STIMULATED RAMAN SCATTERING

Zakharov-Shabat--Ablowitz-Kaup-Newel-Segur representation for Stokes-anti-Stokes stimulated Raman scattering is proposed. Periodical waves, solitons and self-similarity solutions are derived. Transient and bright threshold solitons are discussed.Comment: 16 pages, LaTeX, no figure

Enhancing nano-scale computational fluid dynamics with molecular pre-simulations: unsteady problems and design optimisation

We demonstrate that a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model enhanced with molecular-level information can accurately predict unsteady nano-scale flows in non-trivial geometries, while being efficient enough to be used for design optimisation. We first consider a converging–diverging nano-scale channel driven by a time-varying body force. The time-dependent mass flow rate predicted by our enhanced CFD agrees well with a full molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of the same configuration, and is achieved at a fraction of the computational cost. Conventional CFD predictions of the same case are wholly inadequate. We then demonstrate the application of enhanced CFD as a design optimisation tool on a bifurcating two-dimensional channel, with the target of maximising mass flow rate for a fixed total volume and applied pressure. At macro scales the optimised geometry agrees well with Murray’s Law for optimal branching of vascular networks; however, at nanoscales, the optimum result deviates from Murray’s Law, and a corrected equation is presented

IQuaD dental trial; improving the quality of dentistry : a multicentre randomised controlled trial comparing oral hygiene advice and periodontal instrumentation for the prevention and management of periodontal disease in dentate adults attending dental primary care

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Pacific island regional preparedness for El Niño

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is often blamed for disasters in Pacific island communities. From a disaster risk reduction (DRR) perspective, the challenges with the El Niño part of the ENSO cycle, in particular, are more related to inadequate vulnerability reduction within development than to ENSO-induced hazard influences. This paper analyses this situation, filling in a conceptual and geographic gap in El Niño-related research, by reviewing El Niño-related preparedness (the conceptual gap) for Pacific islands (the geographic gap). Through exploring El Niño impacts on Pacific island communities alongside their vulnerabilities, resiliences, and preparedness with respect to El Niño, El Niño is seen as a constructed discourse rather than as a damaging phenomenon, leading to suggestions for El Niño preparedness as DRR as part of development. Yet the attention which El Niño garners might bring resources to the Pacific region and its development needs, albeit in the short term while El Niño lasts. Conversely, the attention given to El Niño could shift blame from underlying causes of vulnerability to a hazard-centric viewpoint. Instead of focusing on one hazard-influencing phenomenon, opportunities should be created for the Pacific region to tackle wider DRR and development concerns

Impaired Carbohydrate Digestion and Transport and Mucosal Dysbiosis in the Intestines of Children with Autism and Gastrointestinal Disturbances

Gastrointestinal disturbances are commonly reported in children with autism, complicate clinical management, and may contribute to behavioral impairment. Reports of deficiencies in disaccharidase enzymatic activity and of beneficial responses to probiotic and dietary therapies led us to survey gene expression and the mucoepithelial microbiota in intestinal biopsies from children with autism and gastrointestinal disease and children with gastrointestinal disease alone. Ileal transcripts encoding disaccharidases and hexose transporters were deficient in children with autism, indicating impairment of the primary pathway for carbohydrate digestion and transport in enterocytes. Deficient expression of these enzymes and transporters was associated with expression of the intestinal transcription factor, CDX2. Metagenomic analysis of intestinal bacteria revealed compositional dysbiosis manifest as decreases in Bacteroidetes, increases in the ratio of Firmicutes to Bacteroidetes, and increases in Betaproteobacteria. Expression levels of disaccharidases and transporters were associated with the abundance of affected bacterial phylotypes. These results indicate a relationship between human intestinal gene expression and bacterial community structure and may provide insights into the pathophysiology of gastrointestinal disturbances in children with autism

Hybrid molecular-continuum simulations of water flow through carbon nanotube membranes of realistic thickness

We present new hybrid molecular-continuum simulations of water flow through filtration membranes. The membranes consist of aligned carbon nanotubes (CNTs) of high aspect ratio, where the tube diameters are ~1–2 nm and the tube lengths (i.e. the membrane thicknesses) are 2–6 orders of magnitude larger than this. The flow in the CNTs is subcontinuum, meaning standard continuum fluid equations cannot adequately model the flow; also, full molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are too computationally expensive for modelling these membrane thicknesses. However, various degrees of scale separation in both time and space in this problem can be exploited by a multiscale method: we use the serial-network internal-flow multiscale method (SeN-IMM). Our results from this hybrid method compare very well with full MD simulations of flow cases up to a membrane thickness of 150 nm, beyond which any full MD simulation is computationally intractable. We proceed to use the SeN-IMM to predict the flow in membranes of thicknesses 150 nm–2 μm, and compare these results with both a modified Hagen–Poiseuille flow equation and experimental results for the same membrane configuration. We also find good agreement between experimental and our numerical results for a 1-mm-thick membrane made of CNTs with diameters around 1.1 nm. In this case, the hybrid simulation is orders of magnitude quicker than a full MD simulation would be

Molecular dynamics pre-simulations for nanoscale computational fluid dynamics

We present a procedure for using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to provide essential fluid and interface properties for subsequent use in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations of nanoscale fluid flows. The MD pre-simulations enable us to obtain an equation of state, constitutive relations, and boundary conditions for any given fluid/solid combination, in a form that can be conveniently implemented within an otherwise conventional Navier–Stokes solver. Our results demonstrate that these enhanced CFD simulations are then capable of providing good flow field results in a range of complex geometries at the nanoscale. Comparison for validation is with full-scale MD simulations here, but the computational cost of the enhanced CFD is negligible in comparison with the MD. Importantly, accurate predictions can be obtained in geometries that are more complex than the planar MD pre-simulation geometry that provides the nanoscale fluid properties. The robustness of the enhanced CFD is tested by application to water flow along a (15,15) carbon nanotube, and it is found that useful flow information can be obtained

Notch signaling inhibits hepatocellular carcinoma following inactivation of the RB pathway

Mice lacking all three Rb genes in the liver develop tumors resembling specific subgroups of human hepatocellular carcinomas, and Notch activity appears to suppress the growth and progression of these tumors

The development and evaluation of a five-language multi-perspective standardised measure: clinical decision-making involvement and satisfaction (CDIS).

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a brief quantitative five-language measure of involvement and satisfaction in clinical decision-making (CDIS) - with versions for patients (CDIS-P) and staff (CDIS-S) - for use in mental health services. METHODS: An English CDIS was developed by reviewing existing measures, focus groups, semistructured interviews and piloting. Translations into Danish, German, Hungarian and Italian followed the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Task Force principles of good practice for translation and cultural adaptation. Psychometricevaluation involved testing the measure in secondary mental health services in Aalborg, Debrecen, London, Naples, Ulm and Zurich. RESULTS: After appraising 14 measures, the Control Preference Scale and Satisfaction With Decision-making English-language scales were modified and evaluated in interviews (n = 9), focus groups (n = 22) and piloting (n = 16). Translations were validated through focus groups (n = 38) and piloting (n = 61). A total of 443 service users and 403 paired staff completed CDIS. The Satisfaction sub-scale had internal consistency of 0.89 (0.86-0.89 after item-level deletion) for staff and 0.90 (0.87-0.90) for service users, both continuous and categorical (utility) versions were associated with symptomatology and both staff-rated and service userrated therapeutic alliance (showing convergent validity), and not with social disability (showing divergent validity), and satisfaction predicted staff-rated (OR 2.43, 95%CI 1.54- 3.83 continuous, OR 5.77, 95%CI 1.90-17.53 utility) and service user-rated (OR 2.21, 95%CI 1.51-3.23 continuous, OR 3.13, 95%CI 1.10-8.94 utility) decision implementation two months later. The Involvement sub-scale had appropriate distribution and no floor or ceiling effects, was associated with stage of recovery, functioning and quality of life (staff only) (showing convergent validity), and not with symptomatology or social disability (showing divergent validity), and staff-rated passive involvement by the service user predicted implementation (OR 3.55, 95%CI 1.53-8.24). Relationships remained after adjusting for clustering by staff. CONCLUSIONS: CDIS demonstrates adequate internal consistency, no evidence of item redundancy, appropriate distribution, and face, content, convergent, divergent and predictive validity. It can be recommended for research and clinical use. CDIS-P and CDIS-S in all 3 five languages can be downloaded at http://www.cedar-net.eu/instruments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN75841675.CEDAR study is funded by a grant from the Seventh Framework Programme (Research Area HEALTH-2007-3.1-4 Improving clinical decision making) of the European Union (Grant no. 223290)