Analysis of Kelly-optimal portfolios

We investigate the use of Kelly's strategy in the construction of an optimal portfolio of assets. For lognormally distributed asset returns, we derive approximate analytical results for the optimal investment fractions in various settings. We show that when mean returns and volatilities of the assets are small and there is no risk-free asset, the Kelly-optimal portfolio lies on Markowitz Efficient Frontier. Since in the investigated case the Kelly approach forbids short positions and borrowing, often only a small fraction of the available assets is included in the Kelly-optimal portfolio. This phenomenon, that we call condensation, is studied analytically in various model scenarios.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures; extended list of references and some minor modification

Extension of Yeast Chronological Lifespan by Methylamine

Background: Chronological aging of yeast cells is commonly used as a model for aging of human post-mitotic cells. The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae grown on glucose in the presence of ammonium sulphate is mainly used in yeast aging research. We have analyzed chronological aging of the yeast Hansenula polymorpha grown at conditions that require primary peroxisome metabolism for growth. Methodology/Principal Findings: The chronological lifespan of H. polymorpha is strongly enhanced when cells are grown on methanol or ethanol, metabolized by peroxisome enzymes, relative to growth on glucose that does not require peroxisomes. The short lifespan of H. polymorpha on glucose is mainly due to medium acidification, whereas most likely ROS do not play an important role. Growth of cells on methanol/methylamine instead of methanol/ammonium sulphate resulted in further lifespan enhancement. This was unrelated to medium acidification. We show that oxidation of methylamine by peroxisomal amine oxidase at carbon starvation conditions is responsible for lifespan extension. The methylamine oxidation product formaldehyde is further oxidized resulting in NADH generation, which contributes to increased ATP generation and reduction of ROS levels in the stationary phase. Conclusion/Significance: We conclude that primary peroxisome metabolism enhanced chronological lifespan of H. polymorpha. Moreover, the possibility to generate NADH at carbon starvation conditions by an organic nitrogen source supports further extension of the lifespan of the cell. Consequently, the interpretation of CLS analyses in yeast should include possible effects on the energy status of the cell.

An association between anti-platelet drug use and reduced cancer prevalence in diabetic patients: results from the Vermont Diabetes Information System Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of several malignancies. Both diabetic patients and patients with cancer have an increase in platelet reactivity and platelet activation has recently emerged as a potential mediator of cancer progression. Drug therapies, such as aspirin, that reduce platelet reactivity reduce both cardiovascular and cancer risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a cross-sectional analysis to assess the association between history of cancer and current anti-platelet drug use in a primary care population of adults with diabetes enrolled in the Vermont Diabetes Information System.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Self-reported characteristics, medical history, and a complete medication list were recorded on 1007 diabetic adults. Fifty percent of diabetic patients used an anti-platelet drug. In unadjusted analysis, no association was seen between anti-platelet drug use and cancer history (OR = 0.93; <it>P </it>= .70). Platelet inhibitor use was associated with a decreased patient-reported history of malignancy in a multivariate logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, comorbidity, and number of medications (OR = 0.66; CI 0.44-0.99; <it>P </it>= .045). Similar odds of association were seen in both males and females, and for aspirin and non-aspirin platelet inhibitor therapy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data suggest an association between anti-platelet drug use and reduced cancer prevalence in patients with diabetes. Given the potentially large implications of our observations in the diabetic population, further studies are required to determine if this association is causal.</p

A Reservoir of Drug-Resistant Pathogenic Bacteria in Asymptomatic Hosts

The population genetics of pathogenic bacteria has been intensively studied in order to understand the spread of disease and the evolution of virulence and drug resistance. However, much less attention has been paid to bacterial carriage populations, which inhabit hosts without producing disease. Since new virulent strains that cause disease can be recruited from the carriage population of bacteria, our understanding of infectious disease is seriously incomplete without knowledge on the population structure of pathogenic bacteria living in an asymptomatic host. We report the first extensive survey of the abundance and diversity of a human pathogen in asymptomatic animal hosts. We have found that asymptomatic swine from livestock productions frequently carry populations of Salmonella enterica with a broad range of drug-resistant strains and genetic diversity greatly exceeding that previously described. This study shows how agricultural practice and human intervention may lead and influence the evolution of a hidden reservoir of pathogens, with important implications for human health

Conversion of Vertical Banded Gastroplasty to Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass Results in Restoration of the Positive Effect on Weight Loss and Co-morbidities: Evaluation of 101 Patients

BACKGROUND: Vertical banded gastroplasty (VBG) is a widely used restrictive procedure in bariatric surgery. However, the re-operation rate after this operation is high. In the case of VBG failure, a conversion to Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP) is an option. A study was undertaken to evaluate the results of the conversion from VBG to RYGBP. METHODS: 101 patients had conversion from VBG to RYGBP. Patients were separated into 3 groups, based on the indication for conversion: weight regain (group 1), excessive weight loss (group 2) and severe eating difficulties (group 3). Data for the study were collected by retrospective analysis of prospectively recorded data. RESULTS: Weight regain (group 1) was the reason for conversion in 73.3% of patients. Staple-line disruption was the most important cause for the weight regain (74.3%). Excessive weight loss (group 2) affected 14% of patients and was caused by outlet stenosis in 78.6% of patients. The remaining 13% had severe eating difficulties as a result of outlet stenosis (46.1%), pouch dilatation (30.8%) and pouch diverticula (23.1%). Mean BMI before conversion to RYGBP was 40.5, 22.3 and 29.8 kg/m2 in group 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Minor or major direct postoperative complications were observed in 2.0% to 7.0%. Long-term complications were more frequent, and consisted mainly of anastomotic stenosis (22.7%) and incisional hernia (16.8%). Follow-up after conversion was achieved in all patients (100%), with a mean period of 38 +/- 29 months. BMI decreased from 40.5 to 30.1 kg/m2, increased from 22.3 to 25.3 kg/m2. and decreased slightly from 29.8 to 29.0 kg/m2 in group 1, 2 and 3, respectively. All patients in group 3 noticed an improvement in eating difficulties. CONCLUSION: Complications after conversion from failed VBG to RYGBP are substantial and need to be considered. However, the conversion itself is a successful operation in terms of effect on body weight and treating eating difficulties after VBG

Standing genetic variation and compensatory evolution in transgenic organisms: a growth-enhanced salmon simulation

Genetically modified strains usually are generated within defined genetic backgrounds to minimize variation for the engineered characteristic in order to facilitate basic research investigations or for commercial application. However, interactions between transgenes and genetic background have been documented in both model and commercial agricultural species, indicating that allelic variation at transgene-modifying loci are not uncommon in genomes. Engineered organisms that have the potential to allow entry of transgenes into natural populations may cause changes to ecosystems via the interaction of their specific phenotypes with ecosystem components and services. A transgene introgressing through natural populations is likely to encounter a range of natural genetic variation (among individuals or sub-populations) that could result in changes in phenotype, concomitant with effects on fitness and ecosystem consequences that differ from that seen in the progenitor transgenic strain. In the present study, using a growth hormone transgenic salmon example, we have modeled selection of modifier loci (single and multiple) in the presence of a transgene and have found that accounting for genetic background can significantly affect the persistence of transgenes in populations, potentially reducing or reversing a “Trojan gene” effect. Influences from altered life history characteristics (e.g., developmental timing, age of maturation) and compensatory demographic/ecosystem controls (e.g., density dependence) also were found to have a strong influence on transgene effects. Further, with the presence of a transgene in a population, genetic backgrounds were found to shift in non-transgenic individuals as well, an effect expected to direct phenotypes away from naturally selected optima. The present model has revealed the importance of understanding effects of selection for background genetics on the evolution of phenotypes in populations harbouring transgenes

Reporting of Adverse Events in Published and Unpublished Studies of Health Care Interventions : A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: We performed a systematic review to assess whether we can quantify the underreporting of adverse events (AEs) in the published medical literature documenting the results of clinical trials as compared with other nonpublished sources, and whether we can measure the impact this underreporting has on systematic reviews of adverse events. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Studies were identified from 15 databases (including MEDLINE and Embase) and by handsearching, reference checking, internet searches, and contacting experts. The last database searches were conducted in July 2016. There were 28 methodological evaluations that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 9 studies compared the proportion of trials reporting adverse events by publication status. The median percentage of published documents with adverse events information was 46% compared to 95% in the corresponding unpublished documents. There was a similar pattern with unmatched studies, for which 43% of published studies contained adverse events information compared to 83% of unpublished studies. A total of 11 studies compared the numbers of adverse events in matched published and unpublished documents. The percentage of adverse events that would have been missed had each analysis relied only on the published versions varied between 43% and 100%, with a median of 64%. Within these 11 studies, 24 comparisons of named adverse events such as death, suicide, or respiratory adverse events were undertaken. In 18 of the 24 comparisons, the number of named adverse events was higher in unpublished than published documents. Additionally, 2 other studies demonstrated that there are substantially more types of adverse events reported in matched unpublished than published documents. There were 20 meta-analyses that reported the odds ratios (ORs) and/or risk ratios (RRs) for adverse events with and without unpublished data. Inclusion of unpublished data increased the precision of the pooled estimates (narrower 95% confidence intervals) in 15 of the 20 pooled analyses, but did not markedly change the direction or statistical significance of the risk in most cases. The main limitations of this review are that the included case examples represent only a small number amongst thousands of meta-analyses of harms and that the included studies may suffer from publication bias, whereby substantial differences between published and unpublished data are more likely to be published. CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence that much of the information on adverse events remains unpublished and that the number and range of adverse events is higher in unpublished than in published versions of the same study. The inclusion of unpublished data can also reduce the imprecision of pooled effect estimates during meta-analysis of adverse events

Women’s, partners’ and healthcare providers’ views and experiences of assisted vaginal birth: a systematic mixed methods review

Background When certain complications arise during the second stage of labour, assisted vaginal delivery (AVD), a vaginal birth with forceps or vacuum extractor, can effectively improve outcomes by ending prolonged labour or by ensuring rapid birth in response to maternal or fetal compromise. In recent decades, the use of AVD has decreased in many settings in favour of caesarean section (CS). This review aimed to improve understanding of experiences, barriers and facilitators for AVD use. Methods Systematic searches of eight databases using predefined search terms to identify studies reporting views and experiences of maternity service users, their partners, health care providers, policymakers, and funders in relation to AVD. Relevant studies were assessed for methodological quality. Qualitative findings were synthesised using a meta-ethnographic approach. Confidence in review findings was assessed using GRADE CERQual. Findings from quantitative studies were synthesised narratively and assessed using an adaptation of CERQual. Qualitative and quantitative review findings were triangulated using a convergence coding matrix. Results Forty-two studies (published 1985–2019) were included: six qualitative, one mixed-method and 35 quantitative. Thirty-five were from high-income countries, and seven from LMIC settings. Confidence in the findings was moderate or low. Spontaneous vaginal birth was most likely to be associated with positive short and long-term outcomes, and emergency CS least likely. Views and experiences of AVD tended to fall somewhere between these two extremes. Where indicated, AVD can be an effective, acceptable alternative to caesarean section. There was agreement or partial agreement across qualitative studies and surveys that the experience of AVD is impacted by the unexpected nature of events and, particularly in high-income settings, unmet expectations. Positive relationships, good communication, involvement in decision-making, and (believing in) the reason for intervention were important mediators of birth experience. Professional attitudes and skills (development) were simultaneously barriers and facilitators of AVD in quantitative studies. Conclusions Information, positive interaction and communication with providers and respectful care are facilitators for acceptance of AVD. Barriers include lack of training and skills for decision-making and use of instruments