41 research outputs found
Ecosystem services of tropical dry forests : insights from longterm ecological and social research on the Pacific coast of Mexico
In the search for an integrated understanding of the relationships among productive activities, human well-being, and ecosystem functioning, we evaluated the services delivered by a tropical dry forest (TDF) ecosystem in the Chamela Region, on the Pacific Coast of Mexico. We synthesized information gathered for the past two decades as part of a long-term ecosystem research study and included social data collected in the past four years using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) conceptual framework as a guide. Here we identify the four nested spatial scales at which information has been obtained and emphasize one of them through a basin conceptual model. We then articulate the biophysical and socio-economic constraints and drivers determining the delivery of ecosystem services in the Region. We describe the nine most important services, the stakeholders who benefit from those services, and their degree of awareness of such services. We characterize spatial and temporal patterns of the services’ delivery as well as trade-offs among services and stakeholders. Finally, we contrast three alternative future scenarios on the delivery of ecosystem services and human well-being. Biophysical and socioeconomic features of the study site strongly influence human−ecosystem interactions, the ecosystem services delivered, the possible future trajectories of the ecosystem, and the effect on human well-being. We discuss future research approaches that will set the basis for an integrated understanding of human−ecosystem interactions and for constructing sustainable management strategies for the TDF.<br /
Quantum Gravity in 2+1 Dimensions: The Case of a Closed Universe
In three spacetime dimensions, general relativity drastically simplifies,
becoming a ``topological'' theory with no propagating local degrees of freedom.
Nevertheless, many of the difficult conceptual problems of quantizing gravity
are still present. In this review, I summarize the rather large body of work
that has gone towards quantizing (2+1)-dimensional vacuum gravity in the
setting of a spatially closed universe.Comment: 61 pages, draft of review for Living Reviews; comments, criticisms,
additions, missing references welcome; v2: minor changes, added reference
Construction of reference chromosome-scale pseudomolecules for potato: integrating the potato genome with genetic and physical maps
The genome of potato, a major global food crop, was recently sequenced. The work presented here details the integration of the potato reference genome (DM) with a new STS marker based linkage map and other physical and genetic maps of potato and the closely related species tomato. Primary anchoring of the DM genome assembly was accomplished using a diploid segregating population, which was genotyped with several types of molecular genetic markers to construct a new ~936 cM linkage map comprising 2,469 marker loci. In silico anchoring approaches employed genetic and physical maps from the diploid potato genotype RH and tomato. This combined approach has allowed 951 superscaffolds to be ordered into pseudomolecules corresponding to the 12 potato chromosomes. These pseudomolecules represent 674 Mb (~93%) of the 723 Mb genome assembly and 37,482 (~96%) of the 39,031 predicted genes. The superscaffold order and orientation within the pseudomolecules is closely collinear with independently constructed high density linkage maps. Comparisons between marker distribution and physical location reveal regions of greater and lesser recombination, as well as regions exhibiting significant segregation distortion. The work presented here has led to a greatly improved ordering of the potato reference genome superscaffolds into chromosomal 'pseudomolecules'.Fil: Carboni, Martín Federico. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: D'ambrosio, Juan Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional San Cristobal de Huamanga. Laboratorio de Genética y
Biotecnología Vegetal; PerúFil: Sharma, Sanjeev Kumar. The James Hutton Institute; Reino UnidoFil: Bolser, Daniel. University of Dundee; Reino UnidoFil: de Boer, Jan. Wageningen University & Researc; Países BajosFil: Sønderkær, Mads . Aalborg University; DinamarcaFil: Amoros, Walter. International Potato Center; PerúFil: de la Cruz, Germán. Universidad Nacional San Cristobal de Huamanga; PerúFil: Di Genova, Alex. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Douches, David S.. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Eguiluz, Maria. Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; PerúFil: Guo, Xiao. Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences; ChinaFil: Guzman, Frank. Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; PerúFil: Hackett, Christine A.. Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland; Reino UnidoFil: Hamilton, John P.. Crops Environment and Land Use Programme; IrlandaFil: Li, Guangcun. Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences; ChinaFil: Li, Ying. The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research; Nueva ZelandaFil: Lozano, Roberto. Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; PerúFil: Maass, Alejandro. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Marshall, David. The James Hutton Institute; Reino UnidoFil: Martinez, Diana. Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; PerúFil: McLean, Karen. The James Hutton Institute; Reino UnidoFil: Mejía, Nilo. Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Centro Regional de Investigación La Platina; ChileFil: Milne, Linda. The James Hutton Institute; Reino UnidoFil: Munive, Susan. International Potato Center; PerúFil: Nagy, Istvan. Crops Environment and Land Use Programme; IrlandaFil: Ponce, Olga. Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; PerúFil: Ramirez, Manuel. Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; PerúFil: Simon, Reinhard. International Potato Center; PerúFil: Thomson, Susan J.. Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Chin
Human Practice. Digital Ecologies. Our Future. : 14. Internationale Tagung Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI 2019) : Tagungsband
Erschienen bei: universi - Universitätsverlag Siegen. - ISBN: 978-3-96182-063-4Aus dem Inhalt:
Track 1: Produktion & Cyber-Physische Systeme
Requirements and a Meta Model for Exchanging Additive Manufacturing Capacities
Service Systems, Smart Service Systems and Cyber- Physical Systems—What’s the difference? Towards a Unified Terminology
Developing an Industrial IoT Platform – Trade-off between Horizontal and Vertical Approaches
Machine Learning und Complex Event Processing: Effiziente Echtzeitauswertung am Beispiel Smart Factory
Sensor retrofit for a coffee machine as condition monitoring and predictive maintenance use case
Stakeholder-Analyse zum Einsatz IIoT-basierter Frischeinformationen in der Lebensmittelindustrie
Towards a Framework for Predictive Maintenance Strategies in Mechanical Engineering - A Method-Oriented Literature Analysis
Development of a matching platform for the requirement-oriented selection of cyber physical systems for SMEs
Track 2: Logistic Analytics
An Empirical Study of Customers’ Behavioral Intention to Use Ridepooling Services – An Extension of the Technology Acceptance Model
Modeling Delay Propagation and Transmission in Railway Networks
What is the impact of company specific adjustments on the acceptance and diffusion of logistic standards?
Robust Route Planning in Intermodal Urban Traffic
Track 3: Unternehmensmodellierung & Informationssystemgestaltung (Enterprise Modelling & Information Systems Design)
Work System Modeling Method with Different Levels of Specificity and Rigor for Different Stakeholder Purposes
Resolving Inconsistencies in Declarative Process Models based on Culpability Measurement
Strategic Analysis in the Realm of Enterprise Modeling – On the Example of Blockchain-Based Initiatives for the Electricity Sector
Zwischenbetriebliche Integration in der Möbelbranche: Konfigurationen und Einflussfaktoren
Novices’ Quality Perceptions and the Acceptance of Process Modeling Grammars
Entwicklung einer Definition für Social Business Objects (SBO) zur Modellierung von Unternehmensinformationen
Designing a Reference Model for Digital Product Configurators
Terminology for Evolving Design Artifacts
Business Role-Object Specification: A Language for Behavior-aware Structural Modeling of Business Objects
Generating Smart Glasses-based Information Systems with BPMN4SGA: A BPMN Extension for Smart Glasses Applications
Using Blockchain in Peer-to-Peer Carsharing to Build Trust in the Sharing Economy
Testing in Big Data: An Architecture Pattern for a Development Environment for Innovative, Integrated and Robust Applications
Track 4: Lern- und Wissensmanagement (e-Learning and Knowledge Management)
eGovernment Competences revisited – A Literature Review on necessary Competences in a Digitalized Public Sector
Say Hello to Your New Automated Tutor – A Structured Literature Review on Pedagogical Conversational Agents
Teaching the Digital Transformation of Business Processes: Design of a Simulation Game for Information Systems Education
Conceptualizing Immersion for Individual Learning in Virtual Reality
Designing a Flipped Classroom Course – a Process Model
The Influence of Risk-Taking on Knowledge Exchange and Combination
Gamified Feedback durch Avatare im Mobile Learning
Alexa, Can You Help Me Solve That Problem? - Understanding the Value of Smart Personal Assistants as Tutors for Complex Problem Tasks
Track 5: Data Science & Business Analytics
Matching with Bundle Preferences: Tradeoff between Fairness and Truthfulness
Applied image recognition: guidelines for using deep learning models in practice
Yield Prognosis for the Agrarian Management of Vineyards using Deep Learning for Object Counting
Reading Between the Lines of Qualitative Data – How to Detect Hidden Structure Based on Codes
Online Auctions with Dual-Threshold Algorithms: An Experimental Study and Practical Evaluation
Design Features of Non-Financial Reward Programs for Online Reviews: Evaluation based on Google Maps Data
Topic Embeddings – A New Approach to Classify Very Short Documents Based on Predefined Topics
Leveraging Unstructured Image Data for Product Quality Improvement
Decision Support for Real Estate Investors: Improving Real Estate Valuation with 3D City Models and Points of Interest
Knowledge Discovery from CVs: A Topic Modeling Procedure
Online Product Descriptions – Boost for your Sales?
Entscheidungsunterstützung durch historienbasierte Dienstreihenfolgeplanung mit Pattern
A Semi-Automated Approach for Generating Online Review Templates
Machine Learning goes Measure Management: Leveraging Anomaly Detection and Parts Search to Improve Product-Cost Optimization
Bedeutung von Predictive Analytics für den theoretischen Erkenntnisgewinn in der IS-Forschung
Track 6: Digitale Transformation und Dienstleistungen
Heuristic Theorizing in Software Development: Deriving Design Principles for Smart Glasses-based Systems
Mirroring E-service for Brick and Mortar Retail: An Assessment and Survey
Taxonomy of Digital Platforms: A Platform Architecture Perspective
Value of Star Players in the Digital Age
Local Shopping Platforms – Harnessing Locational Advantages for the Digital Transformation of Local Retail Outlets: A Content Analysis
A Socio-Technical Approach to Manage Analytics-as-a-Service – Results of an Action Design Research Project
Characterizing Approaches to Digital Transformation: Development of a Taxonomy of Digital Units
Expectations vs. Reality – Benefits of Smart Services in the Field of Tension between Industry and Science
Innovation Networks and Digital Innovation: How Organizations Use Innovation Networks in a Digitized Environment
Characterising Social Reading Platforms— A Taxonomy-Based Approach to Structure the Field
Less Complex than Expected – What Really Drives IT Consulting Value
Modularity Canvas – A Framework for Visualizing Potentials of Service Modularity
Towards a Conceptualization of Capabilities for Innovating Business Models in the Industrial Internet of Things
A Taxonomy of Barriers to Digital Transformation
Ambidexterity in Service Innovation Research: A Systematic Literature Review
Design and success factors of an online solution for cross-pillar pension information
Track 7: IT-Management und -Strategie
A Frugal Support Structure for New Software Implementations in SMEs
How to Structure a Company-wide Adoption of Big Data Analytics
The Changing Roles of Innovation Actors and Organizational Antecedents in the Digital Age
Bewertung des Kundennutzens von Chatbots für den Einsatz im Servicedesk
Understanding the Benefits of Agile Software Development in Regulated Environments
Are Employees Following the Rules? On the Effectiveness of IT Consumerization Policies
Agile and Attached: The Impact of Agile Practices on Agile Team Members’ Affective Organisational Commitment
The Complexity Trap – Limits of IT Flexibility for Supporting Organizational Agility in Decentralized Organizations
Platform Openness: A Systematic Literature Review and Avenues for Future Research
Competence, Fashion and the Case of Blockchain
The Digital Platform Otto.de: A Case Study of Growth, Complexity, and Generativity
Track 8: eHealth & alternde Gesellschaft
Security and Privacy of Personal Health Records in Cloud Computing Environments – An Experimental Exploration of the Impact of Storage Solutions and Data Breaches
Patientenintegration durch Pfadsysteme
Digitalisierung in der Stressprävention – eine qualitative Interviewstudie zu Nutzenpotenzialen
User Dynamics in Mental Health Forums – A Sentiment Analysis Perspective
Intent and the Use of Wearables in the Workplace – A Model Development
Understanding Patient Pathways in the Context of Integrated Health Care Services - Implications from a Scoping Review
Understanding the Habitual Use of Wearable Activity Trackers
On the Fit in Fitness Apps: Studying the Interaction of Motivational Affordances and Users’ Goal Orientations in Affecting the Benefits Gained
Gamification in Health Behavior Change Support Systems - A Synthesis of Unintended Side Effects
Investigating the Influence of Information Incongruity on Trust-Relations within Trilateral Healthcare Settings
Track 9: Krisen- und Kontinuitätsmanagement
Potentiale von IKT beim Ausfall kritischer Infrastrukturen: Erwartungen, Informationsgewinnung und Mediennutzung der Zivilbevölkerung in Deutschland
Fake News Perception in Germany: A Representative Study of People’s Attitudes and Approaches to Counteract Disinformation
Analyzing the Potential of Graphical Building Information for Fire Emergency Responses: Findings from a Controlled Experiment
Track 10: Human-Computer Interaction
Towards a Taxonomy of Platforms for Conversational Agent Design
Measuring Service Encounter Satisfaction with Customer Service Chatbots using Sentiment Analysis
Self-Tracking and Gamification: Analyzing the Interplay of Motivations, Usage and Motivation Fulfillment
Erfolgsfaktoren von Augmented-Reality-Applikationen: Analyse von Nutzerrezensionen mit dem Review-Mining-Verfahren
Designing Dynamic Decision Support for Electronic Requirements Negotiations
Who is Stressed by Using ICTs? A Qualitative Comparison Analysis with the Big Five Personality Traits to Understand Technostress
Walking the Middle Path: How Medium Trade-Off Exposure Leads to Higher Consumer Satisfaction in Recommender Agents
Theory-Based Affordances of Utilitarian, Hedonic and Dual-Purposed Technologies: A Literature Review
Eliciting Customer Preferences for Shopping Companion Apps: A Service Quality Approach
The Role of Early User Participation in Discovering Software – A Case Study from the Context of Smart Glasses
The Fluidity of the Self-Concept as a Framework to Explain the Motivation to Play Video Games
Heart over Heels? An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Emotions and Review Helpfulness for Experience and Credence Goods
Track 11: Information Security and Information Privacy
Unfolding Concerns about Augmented Reality Technologies: A Qualitative Analysis of User Perceptions
To (Psychologically) Own Data is to Protect Data: How Psychological Ownership Determines Protective Behavior in a Work and Private Context
Understanding Data Protection Regulations from a Data Management Perspective: A Capability-Based Approach to EU-GDPR
On the Difficulties of Incentivizing Online Privacy through Transparency: A Qualitative Survey of the German Health Insurance Market
What is Your Selfie Worth? A Field Study on Individuals’ Valuation of Personal Data
Justification of Mass Surveillance: A Quantitative Study
An Exploratory Study of Risk Perception for Data Disclosure to a Network of Firms
Track 12: Umweltinformatik und nachhaltiges Wirtschaften
Kommunikationsfäden im Nadelöhr – Fachliche Prozessmodellierung der Nachhaltigkeitskommunikation am Kapitalmarkt
Potentiale und Herausforderungen der Materialflusskostenrechnung
Computing Incentives for User-Based Relocation in Carsharing
Sustainability’s Coming Home: Preliminary Design Principles for the Sustainable Smart District
Substitution of hazardous chemical substances using Deep Learning and t-SNE
A Hierarchy of DSMLs in Support of Product Life-Cycle Assessment
A Survey of Smart Energy Services for Private Households
Door-to-Door Mobility Integrators as Keystone Organizations of Smart Ecosystems: Resources and Value Co-Creation – A Literature Review
Ein Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem zur ökonomischen Bewertung von Mieterstrom auf Basis der Clusteranalyse
Discovering Blockchain for Sustainable Product-Service Systems to enhance the Circular Economy
Digitale Rückverfolgbarkeit von Lebensmitteln: Eine verbraucherinformatische Studie
Umweltbewusstsein durch audiovisuelles Content Marketing? Eine experimentelle Untersuchung zur Konsumentenbewertung nachhaltiger Smartphones
Towards Predictive Energy Management in Information Systems: A Research Proposal
A Web Browser-Based Application for Processing and Analyzing Material Flow Models using the MFCA Methodology
Track 13: Digital Work - Social, mobile, smart
On Conversational Agents in Information Systems Research: Analyzing the Past to Guide Future Work
The Potential of Augmented Reality for Improving Occupational First Aid
Prevent a Vicious Circle! The Role of Organizational IT-Capability in Attracting IT-affine Applicants
Good, Bad, or Both? Conceptualization and Measurement of Ambivalent User Attitudes Towards AI
A Case Study on Cross-Hierarchical Communication in Digital Work Environments
‘Show Me Your People Skills’ - Employing CEO Branding for Corporate Reputation Management in Social Media
A Multiorganisational Study of the Drivers and Barriers of Enterprise Collaboration Systems-Enabled Change
The More the Merrier? The Effect of Size of Core Team Subgroups on Success of Open Source Projects
The Impact of Anthropomorphic and Functional Chatbot Design Features in Enterprise Collaboration Systems on User Acceptance
Digital Feedback for Digital Work? Affordances and Constraints of a Feedback App at InsurCorp
The Effect of Marker-less Augmented Reality on Task and Learning Performance
Antecedents for Cyberloafing – A Literature Review
Internal Crowd Work as a Source of Empowerment - An Empirical Analysis of the Perception of Employees in a Crowdtesting Project
Track 14: Geschäftsmodelle und digitales Unternehmertum
Dividing the ICO Jungle: Extracting and Evaluating Design Archetypes
Capturing Value from Data: Exploring Factors Influencing Revenue Model Design for Data-Driven Services
Understanding the Role of Data for Innovating Business Models: A System Dynamics Perspective
Business Model Innovation and Stakeholder: Exploring Mechanisms and Outcomes of Value Creation and Destruction
Business Models for Internet of Things Platforms: Empirical Development of a Taxonomy and Archetypes
Revitalizing established Industrial Companies: State of the Art and Success Principles of Digital Corporate Incubators
When 1+1 is Greater than 2: Concurrence of Additional Digital and Established Business Models within Companies
Special Track 1: Student Track
Investigating Personalized Price Discrimination of Textile-, Electronics- and General Stores in German Online Retail
From Facets to a Universal Definition – An Analysis of IoT Usage in Retail
Is the Technostress Creators Inventory Still an Up-To-Date Measurement Instrument? Results of a Large-Scale Interview Study
Application of Media Synchronicity Theory to Creative Tasks in Virtual Teams Using the Example of Design Thinking
TrustyTweet: An Indicator-based Browser-Plugin to Assist Users in Dealing with Fake News on Twitter
Application of Process Mining Techniques to Support Maintenance-Related Objectives
How Voice Can Change Customer Satisfaction: A Comparative Analysis between E-Commerce and Voice Commerce
Business Process Compliance and Blockchain: How Does the Ethereum Blockchain Address Challenges of Business Process Compliance?
Improving Business Model Configuration through a Question-based Approach
The Influence of Situational Factors and Gamification on Intrinsic Motivation and Learning
Evaluation von ITSM-Tools für Integration und Management von Cloud-Diensten am Beispiel von ServiceNow
How Software Promotes the Integration of Sustainability in Business Process Management
Criteria Catalog for Industrial IoT Platforms from the Perspective of the Machine Tool Industry
Special Track 3: Demos & Prototyping
Privacy-friendly User Location Tracking with Smart Devices: The BeaT Prototype
Application-oriented robotics in nursing homes
Augmented Reality for Set-up Processe
Mixed Reality for supporting Remote-Meetings
Gamification zur Motivationssteigerung von Werkern bei der Betriebsdatenerfassung
Automatically Extracting and Analyzing Customer Needs from Twitter: A “Needmining” Prototype
GaNEsHA: Opportunities for Sustainable Transportation in Smart Cities
TUCANA: A platform for using local processing power of edge devices for building data-driven services
Demonstrator zur Beschreibung und Visualisierung einer kritischen Infrastruktur
Entwicklung einer alltagsnahen persuasiven App zur Bewegungsmotivation für ältere Nutzerinnen und Nutzer
A browser-based modeling tool for studying the learning of conceptual modeling based on a multi-modal data collection approach
Exergames & Dementia: An interactive System for People with Dementia and their Care-Network
Workshops
Workshop Ethics and Morality in Business Informatics (Workshop Ethik und Moral in der Wirtschaftsinformatik – EMoWI’19)
Model-Based Compliance in Information Systems - Foundations, Case Description and Data Set of the MobIS-Challenge for Students and Doctoral Candidates
Report of the Workshop on Concepts and Methods of Identifying Digital Potentials in Information Management
Control of Systemic Risks in Global Networks - A Grand Challenge to Information Systems Research
Die Mitarbeiter von morgen - Kompetenzen künftiger Mitarbeiter im Bereich Business Analytics
Digitaler Konsum: Herausforderungen und Chancen der Verbraucherinformati
Identification of genetic variants associated with Huntington's disease progression: a genome-wide association study
Background Huntington's disease is caused by a CAG repeat expansion in the huntingtin gene, HTT. Age at onset has been used as a quantitative phenotype in genetic analysis looking for Huntington's disease modifiers, but is hard to define and not always available. Therefore, we aimed to generate a novel measure of disease progression and to identify genetic markers associated with this progression measure. Methods We generated a progression score on the basis of principal component analysis of prospectively acquired longitudinal changes in motor, cognitive, and imaging measures in the 218 indivduals in the TRACK-HD cohort of Huntington's disease gene mutation carriers (data collected 2008–11). We generated a parallel progression score using data from 1773 previously genotyped participants from the European Huntington's Disease Network REGISTRY study of Huntington's disease mutation carriers (data collected 2003–13). We did a genome-wide association analyses in terms of progression for 216 TRACK-HD participants and 1773 REGISTRY participants, then a meta-analysis of these results was undertaken. Findings Longitudinal motor, cognitive, and imaging scores were correlated with each other in TRACK-HD participants, justifying use of a single, cross-domain measure of disease progression in both studies. The TRACK-HD and REGISTRY progression measures were correlated with each other (r=0·674), and with age at onset (TRACK-HD, r=0·315; REGISTRY, r=0·234). The meta-analysis of progression in TRACK-HD and REGISTRY gave a genome-wide significant signal (p=1·12 × 10−10) on chromosome 5 spanning three genes: MSH3, DHFR, and MTRNR2L2. The genes in this locus were associated with progression in TRACK-HD (MSH3 p=2·94 × 10−8 DHFR p=8·37 × 10−7 MTRNR2L2 p=2·15 × 10−9) and to a lesser extent in REGISTRY (MSH3 p=9·36 × 10−4 DHFR p=8·45 × 10−4 MTRNR2L2 p=1·20 × 10−3). The lead single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TRACK-HD (rs557874766) was genome-wide significant in the meta-analysis (p=1·58 × 10−8), and encodes an aminoacid change (Pro67Ala) in MSH3. In TRACK-HD, each copy of the minor allele at this SNP was associated with a 0·4 units per year (95% CI 0·16–0·66) reduction in the rate of change of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) Total Motor Score, and a reduction of 0·12 units per year (95% CI 0·06–0·18) in the rate of change of UHDRS Total Functional Capacity score. These associations remained significant after adjusting for age of onset. Interpretation The multidomain progression measure in TRACK-HD was associated with a functional variant that was genome-wide significant in our meta-analysis. The association in only 216 participants implies that the progression measure is a sensitive reflection of disease burden, that the effect size at this locus is large, or both. Knockout of Msh3 reduces somatic expansion in Huntington's disease mouse models, suggesting this mechanism as an area for future therapeutic investigation
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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global annual dry-season length (left) and precipitation rate (right).
<p>Legend and methodology follows <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0190304#pone.0190304.g001" target="_blank">Fig 1</a>. The data employed is on a monthly resolution, but the figure is displayed in days for a better visualization.</p
Global gridded seasonal precipitation and net primary productivity trends.
<p>Linear gridded trend for the wet- and dry-season precipitation, the seasonal range (wet minus dry) and vegetation net primary productivity (climate-only) for the period 1950–2009.</p