Using computer simulation to improve patient flow at an outpatient internal medicine department

This paper presents the use of discrete-event simulation to support process improvements at an outpatient internal medicine department. This department is significantly effective upon treating patients; however, patient waiting times tend to be longer and consequently patient satisfaction rates continue to decrease. With the aid of this technique, 3 improvement scenarios proposed by medical and administrative staff from this department were designed and simulated including changes related to installed capacity and an emphasis on physicians keeping to the schedule. Statistical analysis of output data evidenced which scenarios resulted in poor performance (statistically equal or higher waiting times) and which strategies caused lower waiting times. In this case, Scenario 3 was selected as the best improvement choice with 71.28 % and 19.28 % reduction in average waiting time and standard deviation respectively. With this approach, inefficient strategies can be avoided and real improvement alternatives can be identified

Electronic Health Services: An Introduction to Theory and Application

Information and communication technologies have made dramatic changes in our lives. Healthcare communities also made use of these technologies. Using computerized medical knowledge, electronic patients’ information and telecommunications a lot of applications are now established throughout the world. These include better ways of information management, remote education, telemedicine and public services. Yet, a lot of people don't know about these technologies and their applications. Understanding the concepts and ideologies behind these terms, knowing how they will be implemented, what is it like to use them and what benefit will be gained, are basic knowledge steps approaching these technologies. Difficulties using these services, especially in developing countries should not be neglected or underestimated

Scallop swimming kinematics and muscle performance: modelling the effects of "within-animal" variation in temperature sensitivity

Escape behaviour was investigated in Queen scallops (Aequipecten opercularis) acclimated to 5, 10 or 15 degrees C and tested at their acclimation temperature. Scallops are active molluscs, able to escape from predators by jet-propelled swimming using a striated muscle working in opposition to an elastic hinge ligament. The first cycle of the escape response was recorded using high-speed video ( 250 Hz) and whole-animal velocity and acceleration determined. Muscle shortening velocity, force and power output were calculated using measurements of valve movement and jet area, and a simple biomechanical model. The average shortening speed of the adductor muscle had a Q(10) of 2.04, significantly reducing the duration of the jetting phase of the cycle with increased temperature. Muscle lengthening velocity and the overall duration of the clap cycle were changed little over the range 5 - 15 degrees C, as these parameters were controlled by the relatively temperature-insensitive, hinge ligament. Improvements in the average power output of the adductor muscle over the first clap cycle ( 222 vs. 139 W kg(-1) wet mass at 15 and 5 degrees C respectively) were not translated into proportional increases in overall swimming velocity, which was only 32% higher at 15 degrees C ( 0.37m s(-1)) than 5 degrees C (0.28 m s(-1))

A new hammer to crack an old nut : interspecific competitive resource capture by plants is regulated by nutrient supply, not climate

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Discrete-Event Simulation for Performance Evaluation and Improvement of Gynecology Outpatient Departments: A Case Study in the Public Sector

Gynecology outpatient units are in charge of treating different gynecological diseases such as tumorous, cancer, urinary incontinence, gynecological pain, and abnormal discharge. On-time attention is thus needed to avoid severe complications, patient dissatisfaction, and elevated healthcare costs. There is then an urgent need for assessing whether the gynecology outpatient departments are cost-effective and what interventions are required for improving clinical outcomes. Despite this context, the studies directly concentrating on diagnosis and improvement of these departments are widely limited. To address these concerns, this paper aims to provide a Discrete-event Simulation (DES) modelling framework to help healthcare managers gain a better understanding of the gynecology outpatient services and evaluate improvement strategies. First, the patient journey through the gynecology outpatient service is mapped. To correctly represent the system uncertainty, collected data is then processed through input analysis. Third, the data is used to model and simulate the real gynecology outpatient unit. This model is later validated to determine whether it is statistically equivalent to the real system. After this, using performance metrics derived from the simulation model, the gynecology outpatient department is analyzed to identify potential improvements. We finally pretest potential interventions to define their viability during implementation. A case study of a mixed-patient type environment in a public gynecology outpatient unit is presented to verify the applicability of the proposed methodology. The results evidenced that appointment lead times could be efficiently reduced using this approach. © 2019, Springer Nature Switzerland AG

Social, environmental and psychological factors associated with objective physical activity levels in the over 65s

Objective: To assess physical activity levels objectively using accelerometers in community dwelling over 65 s and to examine associations with health, social, environmental and psychological factors. Design: Cross sectional survey. Setting: 17 general practices in Scotland, United Kingdom. Participants: Random sampling of over 65 s registered with the practices in four strata young-old (65–80 years), old-old (over 80 years), more affluent and less affluent groups. Main Outcome Measures: Accelerometry counts of activity per day. Associations between activity and Theory of Planned Behaviour variables, the physical environment, health, wellbeing and demographic variables were examined with multiple regression analysis and multilevel modelling. Results: 547 older people (mean (SD) age 79(8) years, 54% female) were analysed representing 94% of those surveyed. Accelerometry counts were highest in the affluent younger group, followed by the deprived younger group, with lowest levels in the deprived over 80 s group. Multiple regression analysis showed that lower age, higher perceived behavioural control, the physical function subscale of SF-36, and having someone nearby to turn to were all independently associated with higher physical activity levels (R2 = 0.32). In addition, hours of sunshine were independently significantly associated with greater physical activity in a multilevel model. Conclusions: Other than age and hours of sunlight, the variables identified are modifiable, and provide a strong basis for the future development of novel multidimensional interventions aimed at increasing activity participation in later life.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A Discrete Event Simulation model to evaluate the treatment pathways of patients with Cataract in the United Kingdom

Background The number of people affected by cataract in the United Kingdom (UK) is growing rapidly due to ageing population. As the only way to treat cataract is through surgery, there is a high demand for this type of surgery and figures indicate that it is the most performed type of surgery in the UK. The National Health Service (NHS), which provides free of charge care in the UK, is under huge financial pressure due to budget austerity in the last decade. As the number of people affected by the disease is expected to grow significantly in coming years, the aim of this study is to evaluate whether the introduction of new processes and medical technologies will enable cataract services to cope with the demand within the NHS funding constraints. Methods We developed a Discrete Event Simulation model representing the cataract services pathways at Leicester Royal Infirmary Hospital. The model was inputted with data from national and local sources as well as from a surgery demand forecasting model developed in the study. The model was verified and validated with the participation of the cataract services clinical and management teams. Results Four scenarios involving increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot were simulated. Results indicate that the total number of surgeries per year could be increased by 40% at no extra cost. However, the rate of improvement decreases for increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot due to a higher number of cancelled surgeries. Productivity is expected to improve as the total number of doctors and nurses hours will increase by 5 and 12% respectively. However, non-human resources such as pre-surgery rooms and post-surgery recovery chairs are under-utilized across all scenarios. Conclusions Using new processes and medical technologies for cataract surgery is a promising way to deal with the expected higher demand especially as this could be achieved with limited impact on costs. Non-human resources capacity need to be evenly levelled across the surgery pathway to improve their utilisation. The performance of cataract services could be improved by better communication with and proactive management of patients.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

The inheritance of seed dormancy in Sinapis arvensis L

Selection for dormant and non-dormant seed in Sinapis arvensis was carried to the seventh and fourteenth generation, respectively. Crosses between the dormant and non-dormant lines clearly showed both a maternal and an embryonic component of seed dormancy. A model for the number of alleles controlling dormancy was constructed and tested. The maternal component of dormancy was shown to be controlled by a single locus with two alleles, the dormant allele being dominant to the non-dormant. No clear picture of the control of the embryonic component of dormancy was found

Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.In our increasingly unstable and unpredictable world, population dynamics rarely settle uniformly to long-term behaviour. However, projecting period-by-period through the preceding fluctuations is more data-intensive and analytically involved than evaluating at equilibrium. To efficiently model populations and best inform policy, we require pragmatic suggestions as to when it is necessary to incorporate short-term transient dynamics and their effect on eventual projected population size. To estimate this need for matrix population modelling, we adopt a linear algebraic quantity known as non-normality. Matrix non-normality is distinct from normality in the Gaussian sense, and indicates the amplificatory potential of the population projection matrix given a particular population vector. In this paper, we compare and contrast three well-regarded metrics of non-normality, which were calculated for over 1000 age-structured human population projection matrices from 42 European countries in the period 1960 to 2014. Non-normality increased over time, mirroring the indices of transient dynamics that peaked around the millennium. By standardising the matrices to focus on transient dynamics and not changes in the asymptotic growth rate, we show that the damping ratio is an uninformative predictor of whether a population is prone to transient booms or busts in its size. These analyses suggest that population ecology approaches to inferring transient dynamics have too often relied on suboptimal analytical tools focussed on an initial population vector rather than the capacity of the life cycle to amplify or dampen transient fluctuations. Finally, we introduce the engineering technique of pseudospectra analysis to population ecology, which, like matrix non-normality, provides a more complete description of the transient fluctuations than the damping ratio. Pseudospectra analysis could further support non-normality assessment to enable a greater understanding of when we might expect transient phases to impact eventual population dynamics.This work was funded by Wellcome Trust New Investigator 103780 to TE, who is also funded by NERC Fellowship NE/J018163/1. JB gratefully acknowledges the ESRC Centre for Population Change ES/K007394/1