Response of stratospheric water vapor and ozone to the unusual timing of El Niño and the QBO disruption in 2015–2016

This is the final version. Available from European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this record.The stratospheric circulation determines the transport and lifetime of key trace gases in a changing climate, including water vapor and ozone, which radiatively impact surface climate. The unusually warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event aligned with a disrupted Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) caused an unprecedented perturbation to this circulation in 2015–2016. Here, we quantify the impact of the alignment of these two phenomena in 2015–2016 on lower stratospheric water vapor and ozone from satellite observations. We show that the warm ENSO event substantially increased water vapor and decreased ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere. The QBO disruption significantly decreased global lower stratospheric water vapor and tropical ozone from early spring to late autumn. Thus, this QBO disruption reversed the lower stratosphere moistening triggered by the alignment of the warm ENSO event with westerly QBO in early boreal winter. Our results suggest that the interplay of ENSO events and QBO phases will be crucial for the distributions of radiatively active trace gases in a changing future climate, when increasing El Niño-like conditions and a decreasing lower stratospheric QBO amplitude are expected.European CommissionEuropean CommissionNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)Helmholtz Associatio

Geometric invariant theory of syzygies, with applications to moduli spaces

We define syzygy points of projective schemes, and introduce a program of studying their GIT stability. Then we describe two cases where we have managed to make some progress in this program, that of polarized K3 surfaces of odd genus, and of genus six canonical curves. Applications of our results include effectivity statements for divisor classes on the moduli space of odd genus K3 surfaces, and a new construction in the Hassett-Keel program for the moduli space of genus six curves.Comment: v1: 23 pages, submitted to the Proceedings of the Abel Symposium 2017, v2: final version, corrects a sign error and resulting divisor class calculations on the moduli space of K3 surfaces in Section 5, other minor changes, In: Christophersen J., Ranestad K. (eds) Geometry of Moduli. Abelsymposium 2017. Abel Symposia, vol 14. Springer, Cha

Primate modularity and evolution: first anatomical network analysis of primate head and neck musculoskeletal system

Network theory is increasingly being used to study morphological modularity and integration. Anatomical network analysis (AnNA) is a framework for quantitatively characterizing the topological organization of anatomical structures and providing an operational way to compare structural integration and modularity. Here we apply AnNA for the first time to study the macroevolution of the musculoskeletal system of the head and neck in primates and their closest living relatives, paying special attention to the evolution of structures associated with facial and vocal communication. We show that well-defined left and right facial modules are plesiomorphic for primates, while anthropoids consistently have asymmetrical facial modules that include structures of both sides, a change likely related to the ability to display more complex, asymmetrical facial expressions. However, no clear trends in network organization were found regarding the evolution of structures related to speech. Remarkably, the increase in the number of head and neck muscles – and thus of musculoskeletal structures – in human evolution led to a decrease in network density and complexity in humans

The development of path integration: combining estimations of distance and heading

Efficient daily navigation is underpinned by path integration, the mechanism by which we use self-movement information to update our position in space. This process is well-understood in adulthood, but there has been relatively little study of path integration in childhood, leading to an underrepresentation in accounts of navigational development. Previous research has shown that calculation of distance and heading both tend to be less accurate in children as they are in adults, although there have been no studies of the combined calculation of distance and heading that typifies naturalistic path integration. In the present study 5-year-olds and 7-year-olds took part in a triangle-completion task, where they were required to return to the startpoint of a multi-element path using only idiothetic information. Performance was compared to a sample of adult participants, who were found to be more accurate than children on measures of landing error, heading error, and distance error. 7-year-olds were significantly more accurate than 5-year-olds on measures of landing error and heading error, although the difference between groups was much smaller for distance error. All measures were reliably correlated with age, demonstrating a clear development of path integration abilities within the age range tested. Taken together, these data make a strong case for the inclusion of path integration within developmental models of spatial navigational processing

Neuromotor Noise, Error Tolerance and Velocity-Dependent Costs in Skilled Performance

In motor tasks with redundancy neuromotor noise can lead to variations in execution while achieving relative invariance in the result. The present study examined whether humans find solutions that are tolerant to intrinsic noise. Using a throwing task in a virtual set-up where an infinite set of angle and velocity combinations at ball release yield throwing accuracy, our computational approach permitted quantitative predictions about solution strategies that are tolerant to noise. Based on a mathematical model of the task expected results were computed and provided predictions about error-tolerant strategies (Hypothesis 1). As strategies can take on a large range of velocities, a second hypothesis was that subjects select strategies that minimize velocity at release to avoid costs associated with signal- or velocity-dependent noise or higher energy demands (Hypothesis 2). Two experiments with different target constellations tested these two hypotheses. Results of Experiment 1 showed that subjects chose solutions with high error-tolerance, although these solutions also had relatively low velocity. These two benefits seemed to outweigh that for many subjects these solutions were close to a high-penalty area, i.e. they were risky. Experiment 2 dissociated the two hypotheses. Results showed that individuals were consistent with Hypothesis 1 although their solutions were distributed over a range of velocities. Additional analyses revealed that a velocity-dependent increase in variability was absent, probably due to the presence of a solution manifold that channeled variability in a task-specific manner. Hence, the general acceptance of signal-dependent noise may need some qualification. These findings have significance for the fundamental understanding of how the central nervous system deals with its inherent neuromotor noise

The influence of blood on the efficacy of intraperitoneally applied phospholipids for prevention of adhesions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The formation of adhesions following abdominal surgery is a well known problem. In previous studies we demonstrated the efficacy and safety of intraperitoneally applied phospholipids in order to prevent adhesion formation. This study evaluates the influence of blood on the efficacy of intraperitoneally applied phospholipids for prevention of adhesions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 40 Chinchilla rabbits adhesions were induced by median laparotomy, standardized abrasion of the visceral and parietal peritoneum in defined areas of the ventral abdominal wall and the caecum. The animals were randomly divided into four groups. They received either phospholipids 3.0% or normal saline (NaCl 0,9%) (5 ml/kg body weight). In 50% of the rabbits we simulated intraperitoneal bleeding by administration of blood (1,5 ml/kg body weight). The other half served as control group. Ten days following the operation the animals were sacrificed and adhesion formation was assessed by computer aided planimetry and histopathologic examination.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The median adhesion surface area in the NaCl-group (n = 9) amounted to 68,72 mm², in the NaCl+Blood-group (n = 10) 147,68 mm². In the Phospholipid (PhL)-group (n = 9) the median adhesion surface area measured 9,35 mm², in the PhL+Blood-group (n = 9) 11,95 mm². The phospholipid groups had a significantly smaller adhesion surface area (p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Again these results confirm the efficacy of phospholipids in the prevention of adhesions in comparison to NaCl (p = 0,04). We also demonstrated the adhesion preventing effect of phospholipids in the presence of intraperitoneal blood.</p

A critical evaluation of network and pathway based classifiers for outcome prediction in breast cancer

Recently, several classifiers that combine primary tumor data, like gene expression data, and secondary data sources, such as protein-protein interaction networks, have been proposed for predicting outcome in breast cancer. In these approaches, new composite features are typically constructed by aggregating the expression levels of several genes. The secondary data sources are employed to guide this aggregation. Although many studies claim that these approaches improve classification performance over single gene classifiers, the gain in performance is difficult to assess. This stems mainly from the fact that different breast cancer data sets and validation procedures are employed to assess the performance. Here we address these issues by employing a large cohort of six breast cancer data sets as benchmark set and by performing an unbiased evaluation of the classification accuracies of the different approaches. Contrary to previous claims, we find that composite feature classifiers do not outperform simple single gene classifiers. We investigate the effect of (1) the number of selected features; (2) the specific gene set from which features are selected; (3) the size of the training set and (4) the heterogeneity of the data set on the performance of composite feature and single gene classifiers. Strikingly, we find that randomization of secondary data sources, which destroys all biological information in these sources, does not result in a deterioration in performance of composite feature classifiers. Finally, we show that when a proper correction for gene set size is performed, the stability of single gene sets is similar to the stability of composite feature sets. Based on these results there is currently no reason to prefer prognostic classifiers based on composite features over single gene classifiers for predicting outcome in breast cancer

Rationale, design and conduct of a randomised controlled trial evaluating a primary care-based complex intervention to improve the quality of life of heart failure patients: HICMan (Heidelberg Integrated Case Management) : study protocol

Background: Chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) is a complex disease with rising prevalence, compromised quality of life (QoL), unplanned hospital admissions, high mortality and therefore high burden of illness. The delivery of care for these patients has been criticized and new strategies addressing crucial domains of care have been shown to be effective on patients' health outcomes, although these trials were conducted in secondary care or in highly organised Health Maintenance Organisations. It remains unclear whether a comprehensive primary care-based case management for the treating general practitioner (GP) can improve patients' QoL. Methods/Design: HICMan is a randomised controlled trial with patients as the unit of randomisation. Aim is to evaluate a structured, standardized and comprehensive complex intervention for patients with CHF in a 12-months follow-up trial. Patients from intervention group receive specific patient leaflets and documentation booklets as well as regular monitoring and screening by a prior trained practice nurse, who gives feedback to the GP upon urgency. Monitoring and screening address aspects of disease-specific selfmanagement, (non)pharmacological adherence and psychosomatic and geriatric comorbidity. GPs are invited to provide a tailored structured counselling 4 times during the trial and receive an additional feedback on pharmacotherapy relevant to prognosis (data of baseline documentation). Patients from control group receive usual care by their GPs, who were introduced to guidelineoriented management and a tailored health counselling concept. Main outcome measurement for patients' QoL is the scale physical functioning of the SF-36 health questionnaire in a 12-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes are the disease specific QoL measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy questionnaire (KCCQ), depression and anxiety disorders (PHQ-9, GAD-7), adherence (EHFScBS and SANA), quality of care measured by an adapted version of the Patient Chronic Illness Assessment of Care questionnaire (PACIC) and NTproBNP. In addition, comprehensive clinical data are collected about health status, comorbidity, medication and health care utilisation. Discussion: As the targeted patient group is mostly cared for and treated by GPs, a comprehensive primary care-based guideline implementation including somatic, psychosomatic and organisational aspects of the delivery of care (HICMAn) is a promising intervention applying proven strategies for optimal care. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN30822978

Chemical signals act as the main reproductive barrier between sister and mimetic Heliconius butterflies.

Colour pattern is the main trait that drives mate recognition between Heliconius species that are phylogenetically close. However, when this cue is compromised such as in cases of mimetic, sympatric and closely related species, alternative mating signals must evolve to ensure reproductive isolation and species integrity. The closely related species Heliconius melpomene malleti and H. timareta florencia occur in the same geographical region, and despite being co-mimics, they display strong reproductive isolation. In order to test which cues differ between species, and potentially contribute to reproductive isolation, we quantified differences in the wing phenotype and the male chemical profile. As expected, the wing colour pattern was indistinguishable between the two species, while the chemical profile of the androconial and genital males' extracts showed marked differences. We then conducted behavioural experiments to study the importance of these signals in mate recognition by females. In agreement with our previous results, we found that chemical blends and not wing colour pattern drive the preference of females for conspecific males. Also, experiments with hybrid males and females suggested an important genetic component for both chemical production and preference. Altogether, these results suggest that chemicals are the major reproductive barrier opposing gene flow between these two sister and co-mimic species

Hybridization in parasites: consequences for adaptive evolution, pathogenesis and public health in a changing world

[No abstract available