Nonperiodic inspections to guarantee a prescribed level of reliability

A cost-optimal nonperiodic inspection policy is derived for complex multicomponent systems. The model takes into consideration the degradation of all the components in the system with the use of a Bessel process with drift. The inspection times are determined by a deterministic function and depend on the system’s performance measure. The nonperiodic policy is developed by evaluating the expected lifetime costs and the optimal policy by an optimal choice of inspection function. The model thus gives a guaranteed level of reliability throughout the life of the project

The impact of predation by marine mammals on Patagonian toothfish longline fisheries

Predatory interaction of marine mammals with longline fisheries is observed globally, leading to partial or complete loss of the catch and in some parts of the world to considerable financial loss. Depredation can also create additional unrecorded fishing mortality of a stock and has the potential to introduce bias to stock assessments. Here we aim to characterise depredation in the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) fishery around South Georgia focusing on the spatio-temporal component of these interactions. Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), and orcas (Orcinus orca) frequently feed on fish hooked on longlines around South Georgia. A third of longlines encounter sperm whales, but loss of catch due to sperm whales is insignificant when compared to that due to orcas, which interact with only 5% of longlines but can take more than half of the catch in some cases. Orca depredation around South Georgia is spatially limited and focused in areas of putative migration routes, and the impact is compounded as a result of the fishery also concentrating in those areas at those times. Understanding the seasonal behaviour of orcas and the spatial and temporal distribution of “depredation hot spots” can reduce marine mammal interactions, will improve assessment and management of the stock and contribute to increased operational efficiency of the fishery. Such information is valuable in the effort to resolve the human-mammal conflict for resources

Comparison between Suitable Priors for Additive Bayesian Networks

Additive Bayesian networks are types of graphical models that extend the usual Bayesian generalized linear model to multiple dependent variables through the factorisation of the joint probability distribution of the underlying variables. When fitting an ABN model, the choice of the prior of the parameters is of crucial importance. If an inadequate prior - like a too weakly informative one - is used, data separation and data sparsity lead to issues in the model selection process. In this work a simulation study between two weakly and a strongly informative priors is presented. As weakly informative prior we use a zero mean Gaussian prior with a large variance, currently implemented in the R-package abn. The second prior belongs to the Student's t-distribution, specifically designed for logistic regressions and, finally, the strongly informative prior is again Gaussian with mean equal to true parameter value and a small variance. We compare the impact of these priors on the accuracy of the learned additive Bayesian network in function of different parameters. We create a simulation study to illustrate Lindley's paradox based on the prior choice. We then conclude by highlighting the good performance of the informative Student's t-prior and the limited impact of the Lindley's paradox. Finally, suggestions for further developments are provided.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Burden of Illness in UK Subjects with Reported Respiratory Infections Vaccinated or Unvaccinated against Influenza: A Retrospective Observational Study

<div><p>Objective</p><p>Detailed data are lacking on influenza burden in the United Kingdom (UK). The objective of this study was to estimate the disease burden associated with influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United Kingdom stratified by age, risk and influenza vaccination status.</p><p>Methods</p><p>This retrospective, cross-sectional, exploratory, observational study used linked data from the General Practice Research Database and the Hospital Episode Statistics databases to estimate resource use and cost associated with ILI in the UK.</p><p>Results</p><p>Data were included from 156,193 patients with ≥1 general practitioner visit with ILI. There were 21,518 high-risk patients, of whom 12,514 (58.2%) were vaccinated and 9,004 (41.8%) were not vaccinated, and 134,675 low-risk patients, of whom 17,482 (13.0%) were vaccinated and 117,193 (87.0%) were not vaccinated. High-risk vaccinated patients were older (p<0.001) and had more risk conditions (p<0.001). High-risk (odds ratio [OR] 2.16) or vaccinated (OR 1.19) patients had a higher probability of >1 general practitioner visit compared with low-risk and unvaccinated patients. Patients who were high-risk and vaccinated had a reduced risk of >1 general practitioner visit (OR 0.82; p<0.001). High-risk individuals who were also vaccinated had a lower probability of ILI-related hospitalisation than individuals who were high-risk or vaccinated alone (OR 0.59). In people aged ≥65 years, the mortality rate was lower in vaccinated than unvaccinated individuals (OR 0.75). The cost of ILI-related GP visits and hospital admissions in the UK over the study period in low-risk vaccinated patients was £27,391,142 and £141,932,471, respectively. In low-risk unvaccinated patients the corresponding values were £168,318,709 and £112,534,130, respectively.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Although vaccination rates in target groups have increased, many people are still not receiving influenza vaccination, and the burden of ILI in the United Kingdom remains substantial. Improving influenza vaccination uptake may have the potential to reduce this burden.</p></div

Light Converts Endosymbiotic Fungus to Pathogen, Influencing Seedling Survival and Niche-Space Filling of a Common Tropical Tree, Iriartea deltoidea

Pathogens are hypothesized to play an important role in the maintenance of tropical forest plant species richness. Notably, species richness may be promoted by incomplete filling of niche space due interactions of host populations with their pathogens. A potentially important group of pathogens are endophytic fungi, which asymptomatically colonize plants and are diverse and abundant in tropical ecosystems. Endophytes may alter competitive abilities of host individuals and improve host fitness under stress, but may also become pathogenic. Little is known of the impacts of endophytes on niche-space filling of their hosts

A case-series study to explore the efficacy of foot orthoses in treating first metatarsophalangeal joint pain

Background: First metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint pain is a common foot complaint which is often considered to be a consequence of altered mechanics. Foot orthoses are often prescribed to reduce 1 stMTP joint pain with the aim of altering dorsiflexion at propulsion. This study explores changes in 1 stMTP joint pain and kinematics following the use of foot orthoses.Methods: The effect of modified, pre-fabricated foot orthoses (X-line ®) were evaluated in thirty-two patients with 1 stMTP joint pain of mechanical origin. The primary outcome was pain measured at baseline and 24 weeks using the pain subscale of the foot function index (FFI). In a small sub-group of patients (n = 9), the relationship between pain and kinematic variables was explored with and without their orthoses, using an electromagnetic motion tracking (EMT) system.Results: A significant reduction in pain was observed between baseline (median = 48 mm) and the 24 week endpoint (median = 14.50 mm, z = -4.88, p &lt; 0.001). In the sub-group analysis, we found no relationship between pain reduction and 1 stMTP joint motion, and no significant differences were found between the 1 stMTP joint maximum dorsiflexion or ankle/subtalar complex maximum eversion, with and without the orthoses.Conclusions: This observational study demonstrated a significant decrease in 1 stMTP joint pain associated with the use of foot orthoses. Change in pain was not shown to be associated with 1 stMTP joint dorsiflexion nor with altered ankle/subtalar complex eversion. Further research into the effect of foot orthoses on foot function is indicated. © 2010 Welsh et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Pre-Fibrillar α-Synuclein Mutants Cause Parkinson's Disease-Like Non-Motor Symptoms in Drosophila

Parkinson's disease (PD) is linked to the formation of insoluble fibrillar aggregates of the presynaptic protein α-Synuclein (αS) in neurons. The appearance of such aggregates coincides with severe motor deficits in human patients. These deficits are often preceded by non-motor symptoms such as sleep-related problems in the patients. PD-like motor deficits can be recapitulated in model organisms such as Drosophila melanogaster when αS is pan-neurally expressed. Interestingly, both these deficits are more severe when αS mutants with reduced aggregation properties are expressed in flies. This indicates that that αS aggregation is not the primary cause of the PD-like motor symptoms. Here we describe a model for PD in Drosophila which utilizes the targeted expression of αS mutants in a subset of dopadecarboxylase expressing serotonergic and dopaminergic (DA) neurons. Our results show that targeted expression of pre-fibrillar αS mutants not only recapitulates PD-like motor symptoms but also the preceding non-motor symptoms such as an abnormal sleep-like behavior, altered locomotor activity and abnormal circadian periodicity. Further, the results suggest that the observed non-motor symptoms in flies are caused by an early impairment of neuronal functions rather than by the loss of neurons due to cell death

Identification of Amazonian Trees with DNA Barcodes

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