Climate change alterations to ecosystem dominance: how might sponge-dominated reefs function?

Anthropogenic stressors are impacting ecological systems across the world. Of particular concern are the recent rapid changes occurring in coral reef systems. With ongoing degradation from both local and global stressors, future reefs are likely to function differently to current coral-dominated ecosystems. Determining key attributes of future reef states is critical to reliably predict outcomes for ecosystem service provision. Here we explore the impacts of changing sponge dominance on coral reefs. Qualitative modelling of reef futures suggests that changing sponge dominance due to increased sponge abundance will have different outcomes for other trophic levels compared with increased sponge dominance as a result of declining coral abundance. By exploring uncertainty in the model outcomes we identify the need to: i) quantify changes in carbon flow through sponges, ii) determine the importance of food limitation for sponges, iii) assess the ubiquity of the recently described 'sponge loop', iv) determine the competitive relationships between sponges and other benthic taxa, particularly algae, and v) understand how changing dominance of other organisms alters trophic pathways and energy flows through ecosystems. Addressing these knowledge gaps will facilitate development of more complex models that assess functional attributes of sponge-dominated reef ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions

Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over >106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes

Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions : (RECONCILE) ; activities and results

The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability

Genetic and environmental variation in educational attainment : an individual-based analysis of 28 twin cohorts

We investigated the heritability of educational attainment and how it differed between birth cohorts and cultural-geographic regions. A classical twin design was applied to pooled data from 28 cohorts representing 16 countries and including 193,518 twins with information on educational attainment at 25 years of age or older. Genetic factors explained the major part of individual differences in educational attainment (heritability: a(2)=0.43; 0.41-0.44), but also environmental variation shared by co-twins was substantial (c(2)=0.31; 0.30-0.33). The proportions of educational variation explained by genetic and shared environmental factors did not differ between Europe, North America and Australia, and East Asia. When restricted to twins 30 years or older to confirm finalized education, the heritability was higher in the older cohorts born in 1900-1949 (a(2)=0.44; 0.41-0.46) than in the later cohorts born in 1950-1989 (a(2)=0.38; 0.36-0.40), with a corresponding lower influence of common environmental factors (c(2)=0.31; 0.29-0.33 and c(2)=0.34; 0.32-0.36, respectively). In conclusion, both genetic and environmental factors shared by co-twins have an important influence on individual differences in educational attainment. The effect of genetic factors on educational attainment has decreased from the cohorts born before to those born after the 1950s.Peer reviewe

Regional Saharan dust modelling during the SAMUM 2006 campaign

Published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported LicenseThe regional dust model system LM-MUSCAT-DES was developed in the framework of the SAMUM project. Using the unique comprehensive data set of near-source dust properties during the 2006 SAMUM field campaign, the performance of the model system is evaluated for two time periods in May and June 2006. Dust optical thicknesses, number size distributions and the position of the maximum dust extinction in the vertical profiles agree well with the observations. However, the spatio-temporal evolution of the dust plumes is not always reproduced due to inaccuracies in the dust source placement by the model. While simulated winds and dust distributions are well matched for dust events caused by dry synoptic-scale dynamics, they are often misrepresented when dust emissions are caused by moist convection or influenced by small-scale topography that is not resolved by the model. In contrast to long-range dust transport, in the vicinity of source regions the model performance strongly depends on the correct prediction of the exact location of sources. Insufficiently resolved vertical grid spacing causes the absence of inversions in the model vertical profiles and likely explains the absence of the observed sharply defined dust layers.Peer reviewe

Dust mobilization and aerosol transport from West Africa to Cape Verde-a meteorological overview of SAMUM-2

The second field campaign of the SAharan Mineral dUst experiMent (SAMUM-2) was performed between 15 January and 14 February 2008 at the airport of Praia, Cape Verde, and provided valuable information to study the westward transport of Saharan dust and the mixing with biomass-burning smoke and sea-salt aerosol. Here lidar, meteorological, and particle measurements at Praia, together with operational analyses, trajectories, and satellite and synoptic station data are used to give an overview of the meteorological conditions and to place other SAMUM-2 measurements into a large-scale context. It is demonstrated that wintertime dust conditions at Cape Verde are closely related to the movement and intensification of mid-latitude high-pressure systems and the associated pressure gradients at their southern flanks. These cause dust emission over Mauritania, Mali, and Niger, and subsequent westward transport to Cape Verde within about 1-5 d. Dust emissions often peak around midday, suggesting a relation to daytime mixing of momentum from nocturnal low-level jets to the surface. The dust layer over Cape Verde is usually restricted to the lowest 1.5 km of the atmosphere. During periods with near-surface wind speeds about 5.5 ms -1, a maritime aerosol layer develops which often mixes with dust from above. On most days, the middle levels up to about 5 km additionally contain smoke that can be traced back to sources in southern West Africa. Above this layer, clean air masses are transported to Cape Verde with the westerly flow at the southern side of the subtropical jet. The penetration of extra-tropical disturbances to low latitudes can bring troposphere-deep westerly flow and unusually clean conditions to the region

Regional modelling of Saharan dust and biomass-burning smoke. Part 1 : Model description and evaluation

Published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported LicenseThe spatio-temporal evolution of the Saharan dust and biomass-burning plume during the SAMUM-2 field campaign in January and February 2008 is simulated at 28 km horizontal resolution with the regional model-system COSMO-MUSCAT. The model performance is thoroughly tested using routine ground-based and space-borne remote sensing and local field measurements. Good agreement with the observations is found in many cases regarding transport patterns, aerosol optical thicknesses and the ratio of dust to smoke aerosol. The model also captures major features of the complex aerosol layering. Nevertheless, discrepancies in the modelled aerosol distribution occur, which are analysed in detail. The dry synoptic dynamics controlling dust uplift and transport during the dry season are well described by the model, but surface wind peaks associated with the breakdown of nocturnal low-level jets are not always reproduced. Thus, a strong dust outbreak is underestimated. While dust emission modelling is a priori more challenging, since strength and placement of dust sources depend on on-line computed winds, considerable inaccuracies also arise in observation-based estimates of biomass-burning emissions. They are caused by cloud and spatial errors of satellite fire products and uncertainties in fire emission parameters, and can lead to unrealistic model results of smoke transport. © 2011 The Authors Tellus B © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.Peer reviewe

Impact-Parameter Dependent L-K Vacancy-Transfer in Collisions of Ni²³⁺ with Ge Solid Targets

Using a particle-photon coincidence technique, we have measured the influence of the solid target preparation and thickness on the target K-vacancy production probability (PK(b)) in collisions of 3.6 MeV/u Ni23+ with Ge. The probabilities were measured as a function of the impact parameter b which is calculated from the projectile scattering angle using a screened Bohr-type potential. For target thicknesses varying by more than a factor of 100, no change in the shape of the PK(b) curve was found. Even the data obtained with implanted Ge targets (≈ 1 x 1016atoms cm-2), used for the first time in an L-K vacancy-transfer experiment, showed the typical solid target behaviour with the adiabatic peak being shifted towards smaller impact parameters

Full Scale Relativistic Ab Initio Time Dependent Calculations for the L-K Vacancy Transfer in 208 MeV Ni²³⁺ on a Ge Solid Target

We present full scale ab initio relativistic calculations for the L-K vacancy transfer in collisions of 208 MeV Ni23+ on a Ge solid target. Our Dirac-Fock-Slater method allows us to achieve a very accurate quantitative explanation for the experimental impact parameter-dependent vacancy probabilities in terms of dynamic creation and annihilation of Ni n = 2 shell vacancies