Clarifying the distal to proximal tephrochronology of the Millennium (B–Tm) eruption, Changbaishan Volcano, northeast China

Tephra dispersed during the Millennium eruption (ME), Changbaishan Volcano, NE China provides one of the key stratigraphic links between Asia and Greenland for the synchronization of palaeoenvironmental records. However, controversy surrounds proximal-distal tephra correlations because (a) the proposed proximal correlatives of the distal ME tephra (i.e. B-Tm) lack an unequivocal chronostratigraphic context, and (b) the ME tephra deposits have not been chemically characterized for a full spectrum of element using grain-specific techniques. Here we present grain-specific glass chemistry, including for the first time, single grain trace element data, for a composite proximal sequence and a distal tephra from Lake Kushu, northern Japan (ca. 1100 km away from Changbaishan). We demonstrate a robust proximal-distal correlation and that the Kushu tephra is chemically associated with the ME/B-Tm. We propose that three of the proximal pyroclastic fall units were erupted as part of the ME. The radiocarbon chronology of the Kushu sedimentary record has been utilised to generate a Bayesian age-depth model, providing an age for the Kushu tephra which is consistent with high resolution ages determined for the eruption and therefore supports our geochemical correlation. Two further Bayesian age-depth models were independently constructed each incorporating one of two ice-core derived ages for the B-Tm tephra, providing Bayesian modelled ages of 933-949 and 944-947 cal AD (95.4%) for the Kushu tephra. The high resolution ice-core tephra ages imported into the deposition models help test and ultimately constrain the radiocarbon chronology in this interval of the Lake Kushu sedimentary record. The observed geochemical diversity between proximal and distal ME tephra deposits clearly evidences the interaction of two compositionally distinct magma batches during this caldera forming eruption

Inhibition of the purinergic P2X7 receptor improves renal perfusion in angiotensin-II-infused rats

Chronic activation of the renin angiotensin system promotes hypertension, renal microvascular dysfunction, tissue hypoxia and inflammation. We found previously that the injurious response to excess angiotensin II (ANGII) is greater in F344 rats, whereas Lewis rats are renoprotected, despite similar hypertension. We further identified p2rx7, encoding the P2X7 receptor (P2X7R), as a candidate gene for differential susceptibility and here we have tested the hypothesis that activation of P2X7R promotes vascular dysfunction under high ANGII tone. 14-day infusion of ANGII at 30ng/min into F344 rats increased blood pressure by ~15mmHg without inducing fibrosis or albuminuria. In vivo pressure natriuresis was suppressed, medullary perfusion reduced by ~50% and the cortico-medullary oxygenation gradient disrupted. Selective P2X7R antagonism restored pressure natriuresis, promoting a significant leftward shift in the intercept and increasing the slope. Sodium excretion was increased 6 fold and blood pressure normalized. The specific P2X7R antagonist AZ11657312 increased renal medullary perfusion, but only in ANGII-treated rats. Tissue oxygenation was improved by P2X7R blockade, particularly in poorly oxygenated regions of the kidney. Activation of P2X7R induces microvascular dysfunction and regional hypoxia when ANGII is elevated. These pro-inflammatory effects may contribute to progression of renal injury induced by chronic ANGII

Tuberculosis screening of travelers to higher-incidence countries: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Abstract Background Travelers to countries with high tuberculosis incidence can acquire infection during travel. We sought to compare four screening interventions for travelers from low-incidence countries, who visit countries with varying tuberculosis incidence. Methods Decision analysis model: We considered hypothetical cohorts of 1,000 travelers, 21 years old, visiting Mexico, the Dominican Republic, or Haiti for three months. Travelers departed from and returned to the United States or Canada; they were born in the United States, Canada, or the destination countries. The time horizon was 20 years, with 3% annual discounting of future costs and outcomes. The analysis was conducted from the health care system perspective. Screening involved tuberculin skin testing (post-travel in three strategies, with baseline pre-travel tests in two), or chest radiography post-travel (one strategy). Returning travelers with tuberculin conversion (one strategy) or other evidence of latent tuberculosis (three strategies) were offered treatment. The main outcome was cost (in 2005 US dollars) per tuberculosis case prevented. Results For all travelers, a single post-trip tuberculin test was most cost-effective. The associated cost estimate per case prevented ranged from $21,406 for Haitian-born travelers to Haiti, to$161,196 for US-born travelers to Mexico. In all sensitivity analyses, the single post-trip tuberculin test remained most cost-effective. For US-born travelers to Haiti, this strategy was associated with cost savings for trips over 22 months. Screening was more cost-effective with increasing trip duration and infection risk, and less so with poorer treatment adherence. Conclusion A single post-trip tuberculin skin test was the most cost-effective strategy considered, for travelers from the United States or Canada. The analysis did not evaluate the use of interferon-gamma release assays, which would be most relevant for travelers who received BCG vaccination after infancy, as in many European countries. Screening decisions should reflect duration of travel, tuberculosis incidence, and commitment to treat latent infection.</p

Software defect prediction: do different classifiers find the same defects?

Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.During the last 10 years, hundreds of different defect prediction models have been published. The performance of the classifiers used in these models is reported to be similar with models rarely performing above the predictive performance ceiling of about 80% recall. We investigate the individual defects that four classifiers predict and analyse the level of prediction uncertainty produced by these classifiers. We perform a sensitivity analysis to compare the performance of Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, RPart and SVM classifiers when predicting defects in NASA, open source and commercial datasets. The defect predictions that each classifier makes is captured in a confusion matrix and the prediction uncertainty of each classifier is compared. Despite similar predictive performance values for these four classifiers, each detects different sets of defects. Some classifiers are more consistent in predicting defects than others. Our results confirm that a unique subset of defects can be detected by specific classifiers. However, while some classifiers are consistent in the predictions they make, other classifiers vary in their predictions. Given our results, we conclude that classifier ensembles with decision-making strategies not based on majority voting are likely to perform best in defect prediction.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

The BCG World Atlas: A Database of Global BCG Vaccination Policies and Practices

Madhu Pai and colleagues introduce the BCG World Atlas, an open access, user friendly Web site for TB clinicians to discern global BCG vaccination policies and practices and improve the care of their patients

Rationing tests for drug-resistant tuberculosis - who are we prepared to miss?

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) increases the likelihood of treatment success and interrupts transmission. Resource-constrained settings use risk profiling to ration the use of drug susceptibility testing (DST). Nevertheless, no studies have yet quantified how many patients with DR-TB this strategy will miss. METHODS: A total of 1,545 subjects, who presented to Lima health centres with possible TB symptoms, completed a clinic-epidemiological questionnaire and provided sputum samples for TB culture and DST. The proportion of drug resistance in this population was calculated and the data was analysed to demonstrate the effect of rationing tests to patients with multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) risk factors on the number of tests needed and corresponding proportion of missed patients with DR-TB. RESULTS: Overall, 147/1,545 (9.5%) subjects had culture-positive TB, of which 32 (21.8%) had DR-TB (MDR, 13.6%; isoniazid mono-resistant, 7.5%; rifampicin mono-resistant, 0.7%). A total of 553 subjects (35.8%) reported one or more MDR-TB risk factors; of these, 506 (91.5%; 95% CI, 88.9-93.7%) did not have TB, 32/553 (5.8%; 95% CI, 3.4-8.1%) had drug-susceptible TB, and only 15/553 (2.7%; 95% CI, 1.5-4.4%) had DR-TB. Rationing DST to those with an MDR-TB risk factor would have missed more than half of the DR-TB population (17/32, 53.2%; 95% CI, 34.7-70.9). CONCLUSIONS: Rationing DST based on known MDR-TB risk factors misses an unacceptable proportion of patients with drug-resistance in settings with ongoing DR-TB transmission. Investment in diagnostic services to allow universal DST for people with presumptive TB should be a high priority

Effect of P2X4 and P2X7 receptor antagonism on the pressure diuresis relationship in rats.

Reduced glomerular filtration, hypertension and renal microvascular injury are hallmarks of chronic kidney disease, which has a global prevalence of ~10%. We have shown previously that the Fischer (F344) rat has lower GFR than the Lewis rat, and is more susceptible to renal injury induced by hypertension. In the early stages this injury is limited to the pre-glomerular vasculature. We hypothesized that poor renal hemodynamic function and vulnerability to vascular injury are causally linked and genetically determined. In the present study, normotensive F344 rats had a blunted pressure diuresis relationship, compared with Lewis rats. A kidney microarray was then interrogated using the Endeavour enrichment tool to rank candidate genes for impaired blood pressure control. Two novel candidate genes, P2rx7 and P2rx4, were identified, having a 7- and 3- fold increased expression in F344 rats. Immunohistochemistry localized P2X4 and P2X7 receptor expression to the endothelium of the pre-glomerular vasculature. Expression of both receptors was also found in the renal tubule; however there was no difference in expression profile between strains. Brilliant Blue G (BBG), a relatively selective P2X7 antagonist suitable for use in vivo, was administered to both rat strains. In Lewis rats, BBG had no effect on blood pressure, but increased renal vascular resistance, consistent with inhibition of some basal vasodilatory tone. In F344 rats BBG caused a significant reduction in blood pressure and a decrease in renal vascular resistance, suggesting that P2X7 receptor activation may enhance vasoconstrictor tone in this rat strain. BBG also reduced the pressure diuresis threshold in F344 rats, but did not alter its slope. These preliminary findings suggest a physiological and potential pathophysiological role for P2X7 in controlling renal and/or systemic vascular function, which could in turn affect susceptibility to hypertension-related kidney damage

Climate Change and invasibility of the Antarctic benthos

Benthic communities living in shallow-shelf habitats in Antarctica (&lt;100-m depth) are archaic in their structure and function. Modern predators, including fast-moving, durophagous (skeleton-crushing) bony fish, sharks, and crabs, are rare or absent; slow-moving invertebrates are the top predators; and epifaunal suspension feeders dominate many soft substratum communities. Cooling temperatures beginning in the late Eocene excluded durophagous predators, ultimately resulting in the endemic living fauna and its unique food-web structure. Although the Southern Ocean is oceanographically isolated, the barriers to biological invasion are primarily physiological rather than geographic. Cold temperatures impose limits to performance that exclude modern predators. Global warming is now removing those physiological barriers, and crabs are reinvading Antarctica. As sea temperatures continue to rise, the invasion of durophagous predators will modernize the shelf benthos and erode the indigenous character of marine life in Antarctica

Systematic review of cost and cost-effectiveness of different TB-screening strategies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) for TB have the potential to replace the tuberculin skin test (TST) in screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). The higher per-test cost of IGRAs may be compensated for by lower post-screening costs (medical attention, chest x-rays and chemoprevention), given the higher specificity of the new tests as compared to that of the conventional TST. We conducted a systematic review of all publications that have addressed the cost or cost-effectiveness of IGRAs. The objective of this report was to undertake a structured review and critical appraisal of the methods used for the model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of TB screening programmes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using Medline and Embase, 75 publications that contained the terms "IGRA", "tuberculosis" and "cost" were identified. Of these, 13 were original studies on the costs or cost-effectiveness of IGRAs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 13 relevant studies come from five low-to-medium TB-incidence countries. Five studies took only the costs of screening into consideration, while eight studies analysed the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies. Screening was performed in high-risk groups: close contacts, immigrants from high-incidence countries and healthcare workers. Two studies used the T-SPOT.TB as an IGRA and the other studies used the QuantiFERON-TB Gold and/or Gold In-Tube test. All 13 studies observed a decrease in costs when the IGRAs were used. Six studies compared the use of an IGRA as a test to confirm a positive TST (TST/IGRA strategy) to the use of an IGRA-only strategy. In four of these studies, the two-step strategy and in two the IGRA-only strategy was more cost-effective. Assumptions about TST specificity and progression risk after a positive test had the greatest influence on determining which IGRA strategy was more cost-effective.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The available studies on cost-effectiveness provide strong evidence in support of the use of IGRAs in screening risk groups such as HCWs, immigrants from high-incidence countries and close contacts. So far, only two studies provide evidence that the IGRA-only screening strategy is more cost-effective.</p

Guidelines for the Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: Recommendations from the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association and CDC, 2020.

Comprehensive guidelines for treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among persons living in the United States were last published in 2000 (American Thoracic Society. CDC targeted tuberculin testing and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2000;161:S221-47). Since then, several new regimens have been evaluated in clinical trials. To update previous guidelines, the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association (NTCA) and CDC convened a committee to conduct a systematic literature review and make new recommendations for the most effective and least toxic regimens for treatment of LTBI among persons who live in the United States.The systematic literature review included clinical trials of regimens to treat LTBI. Quality of evidence (high, moderate, low, or very low) from clinical trial comparisons was appraised using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. In addition, a network meta-analysis evaluated regimens that had not been compared directly in clinical trials. The effectiveness outcome was tuberculosis disease; the toxicity outcome was hepatotoxicity. Strong GRADE recommendations required at least moderate evidence of effectiveness and that the desirable consequences outweighed the undesirable consequences in the majority of patients. Conditional GRADE recommendations were made when determination of whether desirable consequences outweighed undesirable consequences was uncertain (e.g., with low-quality evidence).These updated 2020 LTBI treatment guidelines include the NTCA- and CDC-recommended treatment regimens that comprise three preferred rifamycin-based regimens and two alternative monotherapy regimens with daily isoniazid. All recommended treatment regimens are intended for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis that is presumed to be susceptible to isoniazid or rifampin. These updated guidelines do not apply when evidence is available that the infecting M. tuberculosis strain is resistant to both isoniazid and rifampin; recommendations for treating contacts exposed to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis were published in 2019 (Nahid P, Mase SR Migliori GB, et al. Treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis. An official ATS/CDC/ERS/IDSA clinical practice guideline. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2019;200:e93-e142). The three rifamycin-based preferred regimens are 3 months of once-weekly isoniazid plus rifapentine, 4 months of daily rifampin, or 3 months of daily isoniazid plus rifampin. Prescribing providers or pharmacists who are unfamiliar with rifampin and rifapentine might confuse the two drugs. They are not interchangeable, and caution should be taken to ensure that patients receive the correct medication for the intended regimen. Preference for these rifamycin-based regimens was made on the basis of effectiveness, safety, and high treatment completion rates. The two alternative treatment regimens are daily isoniazid for 6 or 9 months; isoniazid monotherapy is efficacious but has higher toxicity risk and lower treatment completion rates than shorter rifamycin-based regimens.In summary, short-course (3- to 4-month) rifamycin-based treatment regimens are preferred over longer-course (6-9 month) isoniazid monotherapy for treatment of LTBI. These updated guidelines can be used by clinicians, public health officials, policymakers, health care organizations, and other state and local stakeholders who might need to adapt them to fit individual clinical circumstances