Climate change promotes hybridisation between deeply divergent species

Rare hybridisations between deeply divergent animal species have been reported for decades in a wide range of taxa, but have often remained unexplained, mainly considered chance events and reported as anecdotal. Here, we combine field observations with long-term data concerning natural hybridisations, climate, land-use, and field-validated species distribution models for two deeply divergent and naturally sympatric toad species in Europe (Bufo bufo and Bufotes viridis species groups). We show that climate warming and seasonal extreme temperatures are conspiring to set the scene for these maladaptive hybridisations, by differentially affecting life-history traits of both species. Our results identify and provide evidence of an ultimate cause for such events, and reveal that the potential influence of climate change on interspecific hybridisations goes far beyond closely related species. Furthermore, climate projections suggest that the chances for these events will steadily increase in the near future

Increase of nesting habitat suitability for green turtles in a warming Mediterranean Sea

Climate change is reshaping global ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, with major impacts on biodiversity. Therefore, understanding how organisms can withstand change is key to identify priority conservation objectives. Marine ectotherms are being extremely impacted because their biology and phenology are directly related to temperature. Among these species, sea turtles are particularly problematic because they roam over both marine and terrestrial habitats throughout their life cycles. Focusing on green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Mediterranean Sea, we investigated the future potential changes of nesting grounds through time, assuming that marine turtles would shift their nesting locations. We modeled the current distribution of nesting grounds including both terrestrial and marine variables, and we projected the potential nesting distribution across the Mediterranean basin under alternative future greenhouse gas emission scenario (2000–2100). Our models show an increase in nesting probability in the western Mediterranean Sea, irrespective of the climate scenario we consider. Contrary to what is found in most global change studies, the worse the climate change scenario, the more suitable areas for green turtles will potentially increase. The most important predictors were anthropogenic variables, which negatively affect nesting probability, and sea surface temperature, positively linked to nesting probability, up to a maximum of 24–25 °C. The importance of the western Mediterranean beaches as potential nesting areas for sea turtles in the near future clearly call for a proactive conservation and management effort, focusing on monitoring actions (to document the potential range expansion) and threat detection

Species Distribution Models: exploring patterns and processes in mammal ecology

Modelling species distribution is one of the most widely used approaches used by modern ecologists to predict species occurrence as well as to explore the environmental variables that determine the presence of a species in an habitat. Given the outstanding importance of mammals in the context of conservation or management actions, it is not surprising that an ever increasing number of mammalogists have successfully employed species distribution models over the last few years. As a scientific journal devoted to mammal natural history, Hystrix, the Italian Journal of Mammalogy is pleased to present a collection of articles forming a special issue that deals with such an important and timely matter

Drivers of change in the realised climatic niche of terrestrial mammals

The breadth of a species’ climatic niche is an important ecological trait that allows adaptation to climate change, but human activities often reduce realised niche breadth by impacting species distributions. Some life-history traits, such as dispersal ability and reproductive speed, allow species to cope with both human impact and climate change. But how do these traits interact with human pressure to determine niche change? Here we investigate the patterns and drivers of change in the realised climatic niche of 258 terrestrial mammal species. Our goal is to disentangle the impacts of human land use, climate change and life history. We quantified the past and present climatic niches of each species by considering past climatic conditions (Mid Holocene) within their pre-human impact distributions, and current climatic conditions within the current distributions. Depending on the difference between past and current niche, we defined four categories of change: ‘shrink’, ‘shift’, ‘stable’ and ‘expand’. We found over half of the species in our sample have undergone niche shrink, while only one in six retained a stable niche. Climate change and distribution change were the strongest correlates of species niche change, followed by biogeography, anthropogenic land use and life-history traits. Factors that increased the probability of niche shrink included: overall climatic instability, reduction in distribution range, historical land use, large body mass and long weaning age. Species with these characteristics might require interventions that facilitate natural dispersal or assisted colonisation to survive rapidly changing climates

Not only climate. The importance of biotic interactions in shaping species distributions at macro scales

Abiotic factors are usually considered key drivers of species distribution at macro scales, while biotic interactions are mostly used at local scales. A few studies have explored the role of biotic interactions at macro scales, but all considered a limited number of species and obligate interactions. We examine the role of biotic interactions in large-scale SDMs by testing two main hypotheses: (1) biotic factors in SDMs can have an important role at continental scale; (2) the inclusion of biotic factors in largescale SDMs is important also for generalist species. We used a maximum entropy algorithm to model the distribution of 177 bat species in Africa calibrating two SDMs for each species: one considering only abiotic variables (noBIO-SDMs) and the other (BIO-SDMs) including also biotic variables (trophic resource richness). We focused the interpretation of our results on variable importance and response curves. For each species, we also compared the potential distribution measuring the percentage of change between the two models in each pixel of the study area. All models gave AUC >0.7, with values on average higher in BIO-SDMs compared to noBIO-SDMs. Trophic resources showed an importance overall higher level than all abiotic predictors in most of the species (~68%), including generalist species. Response curves were highly interpretable in all models, confirming the ecological reliability of our models. Model comparison between the two models showed a change in potential distribution for more than 80% of the species, particularly in tropical forests and shrublands. Our results highlight the importance of considering biotic interactions in SDMs at macro scales. We demonstrated that a generic biotic proxy can be important for modeling species distribution when species-specific data are not available, but we envision that a multi-scale analysis combined with a better knowledge of the species might provide a better understanding of the role of biotic interactions

Large-scale retrospective relative spectro-photometric self-calibration in space

We consider the application of relative self-calibration using overlap regions to spectroscopic galaxy surveys that use slit-less spectroscopy. This method is based on that developed for the SDSS by Padmanabhan at al. (2008) in that we consider jointly fitting and marginalising over calibrator brightness, rather than treating these as free parameters. However, we separate the calibration of the detector-to-detector from the full-focal-plane exposure-to-exposure calibration. To demonstrate how the calibration procedure will work, we simulate the procedure for a potential implementation of the spectroscopic component of the wide Euclid survey. We study the change of coverage and the determination of relative multiplicative errors in flux measurements for different dithering configurations. We use the new method to study the case where the flat-field across each exposure or detector is measured precisely and only exposure-to-exposure or detector-to-detector variation in the flux error remains. We consider several base dither patterns and find that they strongly influence the ability to calibrate, using this methodology. To enable self-calibration, it is important that the survey strategy connects different observations with at least a minimum amount of overlap, and we propose an "S"-pattern for dithering that fulfills this requirement. The final survey strategy adopted by Euclid will have to optimise for a number of different science goals and requirements. The large-scale calibration of the spectroscopic galaxy survey is clearly cosmologically crucial, but is not the only one.Comment: 23 pages, 19 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 201

Drilling down hotspots of infraspecific diversity to bring them into on-ground conservation of threatened species

Unprecedented rates of biodiversity loss raise the urgency for preserving species ability to cope with ongoing global changes. An approach in this direction is to target intra-specific hotspots of genetic diversity as conservation priorities. However, these hotspots are often identified by sampling at a spatial resolution too coarse to be useful in practical management of threatened species, hindering the long-appealed dialog between conservation stakeholders and conservation genetic researchers. Here, we investigated the spatial and temporal variation in species presence, genetic diversity, as well as potential risk factors, within a previously identified hotspot of genetic diversity for the endangered Apennine yellow-bellied toad Bombina pachypus. Our results show that this hotspot is neither a geographically homogeneous nor a temporally stable unit. Over a time-window spanning 10–40 years since previous assessments, B. pachypus populations declined in large portions of their hotspot, and their genetic diversity levels decreased. Considering the demographic trend, genetic and epidemiological data, and models of current and future climatic suitability, populations at the extreme south of the hotspot area still qualify for urgent in-situ conservation actions, whereas northern populations would be better managed through a mix of in-situ and ex-situ actions. Our results emphasize that identifying hotspots of genetic diversity, albeit an essential step, does not suffice to warrant on-ground conservation of threatened species. Hotspots should be analyzed at finer geographic and temporal scales, to provide conservation stakeholders with key knowledge to best define conservation priorities, and to optimize resource allocation to alternative management practices

Distribution of the brown bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus) in the Central Apennines, Italy, 2005-2014

Despite its critical conservation status, no formal estimate of the Apennine brown bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus) distribution has ever been attempted, nor a coordinated effort to compile and verify all recent occurrences has ever been ensured. We used 48331 verified bear location data collected by qualified personnel from 20052014 in the central Apennines, Italy, to estimate the current distribution of Apennine brown bears. Data sources included telemetry relocations, scats and DNA-verified hair samples, sightings, indirect signs of presence, photos from camera traps, and damage to properties. Using a grid-based zonal analysis to transform raw data density, we applied ordinary kriging and estimated a 4923 km2 main bear distribution, encompassing the historical stronghold of the bear population, and including a smaller (1460 km2) area of stable occupancy of reproducing female bears. National and Regional Parks cover 38.8% of the main bear distribution, plus an additional 19.5% encompassed by the Natura 2000 network alone. Despite some methodological and sampling problems related to spatial and temporal variation in sampling effort at the landscape scale, our approach provides an approximation of the current bear distribution that is suited to frequently update the distribution map. Future monitoring of this bear population would benefit from estimating detectability across a range on environmental and sampling variables, and from intensifying the collection of bear presence data in the peripheral portions of the distribution

Monodispersed and size-controlled multibranched gold nanoparticles with nanoscale tuning of surface morphology

A novel seed-mediated synthetic route to produce multibranched gold nanoparticles is reported, in which it is possible to precisely tune both their size and nanostructuration, while maintaining an accurate level of monodispersion. The nanoscale control of surface nanoroughness/branching, ranging from small bud-like features to elongated spikes, allows to obtain fine tuning of the nanoparticle optical properties, up to the red and near-IR region of the spectrum. Such anisotropic nanostructures were demonstrated to be excellent candidates for SERS applications, showing significantly higher signals with respect to the standard spherical nanoparticles