Comprehensive Two-Point Analyses of Weak Gravitational Lensing Surveys

We present a framework for analyzing weak gravitational lensing survey data, including lensing and source-density observables, plus spectroscopic redshift calibration data. All two-point observables are predicted in terms of parameters of a perturbed Robertson-Walker metric, making the framework independent of the models for gravity, dark energy, or galaxy properties. For Gaussian fluctuations the 2-point model determines the survey likelihood function and allows Fisher-matrix forecasting. The framework includes nuisance terms for the major systematic errors: shear measurement errors, magnification bias and redshift calibration errors, intrinsic galaxy alignments, and inaccurate theoretical predictions. We propose flexible parameterizations of the many nuisance parameters related to galaxy bias and intrinsic alignment. For the first time we can integrate many different observables and systematic errors into a single analysis. As a first application of this framework, we demonstrate that: uncertainties in power-spectrum theory cause very minor degradation to cosmological information content; nearly all useful information (excepting baryon oscillations) is extracted with ~3 bins per decade of angular scale; and the rate at which galaxy bias varies with redshift substantially influences the strength of cosmological inference. The framework will permit careful study of the interplay between numerous observables, systematic errors, and spectroscopic calibration data for large weak-lensing surveys.Comment: submitted to Ap

Ecological knowledge, leadership, and the evolution of menopause in killer whales

This is the final version of the article. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.There is another record in ORE for this publication: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/16488Classic life-history theory predicts that menopause should not occur because there should be no selection for survival after the cessation of reproduction [1]. Yet, human females routinely live 30 years after they have stopped reproducing [2]. Only two other species-killer whales (Orcinus orca) and short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) [3, 4]-have comparable postreproductive lifespans. In theory, menopause can evolve via inclusive fitness benefits [5, 6], but the mechanisms by which postreproductive females help their kin remain enigmatic. One hypothesis is that postreproductive females act as repositories of ecological knowledge and thereby buffer kin against environmental hardships [7, 8]. We provide the first test of this hypothesis using a unique long-term dataset on wild resident killer whales. We show three key results. First, postreproductively aged females lead groups during collective movement in salmon foraging grounds. Second, leadership by postreproductively aged females is especially prominent in difficult years when salmon abundance is low. This finding is critical because salmon abundance drives both mortality and reproductive success in resident killer whales [9, 10]. Third, females are more likely to lead their sons than they are to lead their daughters, supporting predictions of recent models [5] of the evolution of menopause based on kinship dynamics. Our results show that postreproductive females may boost the fitness of kin through the transfer of ecological knowledge. The value gained from the wisdom of elders can help explain why female resident killer whales and humans continue to live long after they have stopped reproducing.This research was funded by a Natural Environment Research Council grant (NE/K01286X/1) to D.P.C., D.W.F., and M.A.C

The Local Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Landscape From Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) in the 10 million to 10 billion $M_\odot$ range form in galaxy mergers, and live in galactic nuclei with large and poorly constrained concentrations of gas and stars. There are currently no observations of merging SMBHBs--- it is in fact possible that they stall at their final parsec of separation and never merge. While LIGO has detected high frequency GWs, SMBHBs emit GWs in the nanohertz to millihertz band. This is inaccessible to ground-based interferometers, but possible with Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs). Using data from local galaxies in the 2 Micron All-Sky Survey, together with galaxy merger rates from Illustris, we find that there are on average $91\pm7$ sources emitting GWs in the PTA band, and $7\pm2$ binaries which will never merge. Local unresolved SMBHBs can contribute to GW background anisotropy at a level of $\sim20\%$, and if the GW background can be successfully isolated, GWs from at least one local SMBHB can be detected in 10 years.Comment: submitted to Nature Astronomy (reformatted for arXiv

Neutrino mass bounds from cosmology

Cosmology is at present one of the most powerful probes of neutrino properties. The advent of precision data from the cosmic microwave background and large scale structure has allowed for a very strong bound on the neutrino mass. Here, I review the status of cosmological bounds on neutrino properties with emphasis on mass bounds on light neutrinos.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, talk given at NOW2004 workshop, Conca Specchiulla, Italy, September 11-17, 200

Catastrophic photometric redshift errors: weak lensing survey requirements

We study the sensitivity of weak lensing surveys to the effects of catastrophic redshift errors - cases where the true redshift is misestimated by a significant amount. To compute the biases in cosmological parameters, we adopt an efficient linearized analysis where the redshift errors are directly related to shifts in the weak lensing convergence power spectra. We estimate the number Nspec of unbiased spectroscopic redshifts needed to determine the catastrophic error rate well enough that biases in cosmological parameters are below statistical errors of weak lensing tomography. While the straightforward estimate of Nspec is ~10^6 we find that using only the photometric redshifts with z<=2.5 leads to a drastic reduction in Nspec to ~30,000 while negligibly increasing statistical errors in dark energy parameters. Therefore, the size of spectroscopic survey needed to control catastrophic errors is similar to that previously deemed necessary to constrain the core of the z_s-z_p distribution. We also study the efficacy of the recent proposal to measure redshift errors by cross-correlation between the photo-z and spectroscopic samples. We find that this method requires ~10% a priori knowledge of the bias and stochasticity of the outlier population, and is also easily confounded by lensing magnification bias. The cross-correlation method is therefore unlikely to supplant the need for a complete spectroscopic redshift survey of the source population.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figure

The incidence and characteristics of venous thromboembolisms in paediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease; a prospective international cohort study based on the PIBD-SETQuality Safety Registry.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Guidelines regarding thromboprophylaxis for venous thromboembolisms (VTE) in children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are based on limited paediatric evidence. We aimed to prospectively assess the incidence of VTE in paediatric-onset IBD (PIBD), characterize PIBD patients with VTE, and identify potential IBD-related risk factors. METHODS: From October 2016 till September 2020, paediatric gastroenterologists prospectively replied to the international Safety Registry, monthly indicating whether they had observed a VTE case in a patient <19 years with IBD. IBD details (type, Paris classification, clinical and biochemical disease activity, treatment) and VTE details (type, location, treatment, outcome) were collected. To estimate the VTE incidence, participants annually reported the number of PIBD patients, data source and catchment area of their center. A systematic literature review and meta-analysis was performed to calculate the VTE incidence in the general paediatric population. RESULTS: Participation of 129 PIBD centers resulted in coverage of 24,802 PIBD patients. Twenty cases of VTE were identified (30% Crohn's disease). The VTE incidence was 3.72 [95%CI 2.27 - 5.74] per 10,000 person-years, 14-fold higher than in the general paediatric population (0.27 [95%CI 0.18-0.38], p<0.001). Cerebral sinus venous thrombosis was most frequently reported (50%). All but one patient had active IBD, 45% were using steroids and 45% hospitalized. No patient received thromboprophylaxis, whereas according to current PIBD guidelines, this was recommended in 4/20 patients. CONCLUSION: There is an increased risk of VTE in the PIBD population compared to the general paediatric population. Awareness of VTE occurrence and prevention should be extended to all PIBD patients with active disease, especially those hospitalized

Large scale anisotropies on halo infall

We perform a statistical analysis of the peculiar velocity field around dark matter haloes in numerical simulations. We examine different properties of the infall of material onto haloes and its relation to central halo shapes and the shape of the large scale surrounding regions (LSSR). We find that the amplitude of the infall velocity field along the halo shape minor axis is larger than that along the major axis. This is consistent for general triaxial haloes, and for both prolate and oblate systems. We also report a strong anisotropy of the velocity field along the principal axes of the LSSR. The infall velocity field around dark matter haloes reaches a maximum value along the direction of the minor axis of the LSSR, whereas along the direction of its major axis, it exhibits the smallest velocities. We also analyse the dependence of the matter velocity field on the local environment. The amplitude of the infall velocity at high local density regions is larger than at low local density regions. The velocity field tends to be more laminar along the direction towards the minor axis of the LSSR, where the mean ratio between flow velocity and velocity dispersion is of order unity and nearly constant up to scales of 15 Mpc/h. We also detect anisotropies in the outflowing component of the velocity field, showing a maximum amplitude along the surrounding LSSR major axis.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Accurate estimators of power spectra in N-body simulations

abridged] A method to rapidly estimate the Fourier power spectrum of a point distribution is presented. This method relies on a Taylor expansion of the trigonometric functions. It yields the Fourier modes from a number of FFTs, which is controlled by the order N of the expansion and by the dimension D of the system. In three dimensions, for the practical value N=3, the number of FFTs required is 20. We apply the method to the measurement of the power spectrum of a periodic point distribution that is a local Poisson realization of an underlying stationary field. We derive explicit analytic expression for the spectrum, which allows us to quantify--and correct for--the biases induced by discreteness and by the truncation of the Taylor expansion, and to bound the unknown effects of aliasing of the power spectrum. We show that these aliasing effects decrease rapidly with the order N. The only remaining significant source of errors is reduced to the unavoidable cosmic/sample variance due to the finite size of the sample. The analytical calculations are successfully checked against a cosmological N-body experiment. We also consider the initial conditions of this simulation, which correspond to a perturbed grid. This allows us to test a case where the local Poisson assumption is incorrect. Even in that extreme situation, the third-order Fourier-Taylor estimator behaves well. We also show how to reach arbitrarily large dynamic range in Fourier space (i.e., high wavenumber), while keeping statistical errors in control, by appropriately "folding" the particle distribution.Comment: 18 Pages, 9 Figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. The Fourier-Taylor module as well as the associated power spectrum estimator tool we propose is available as an F90 package, POWMES, at http://www.projet-horizon.fr or on request from the author

Average Heating Rate of Hot Atmospheres in Distant Clusters by Radio AGN: Evidence for Continuous AGN Heating

We examine atmospheric heating by radio active galactic nuclei (AGN) in distant X-ray clusters by cross correlating clusters selected from the 400 Square Degree (400SD) X-ray Cluster survey with radio sources in the NRAO VLA Sky Survey. Roughly 30% of the clusters show radio emission above a flux threshold of 3 mJy within a projected radius of 250 kpc. The radio emission is presumably associated with the brightest cluster galaxy. The mechanical jet power for each radio source was determined using scaling relations between radio power and cavity (mechanical) power determined for nearby clusters, groups, and galaxies with hot atmospheres containing X-ray cavities. The average jet power of the central radio AGN is approximately $2\times 10^{44}$\ergs. We find no significant correlation between radio power, hence mechanical jet power, and the X-ray luminosities of clusters in the redshift range 0.1 -- 0.6. This implies that the mechanical heating rate per particle is higher in lower mass, lower X-ray luminosity clusters. The jet power averaged over the sample corresponds to an atmospheric heating of approximately 0.2 keV per particle within R$_{500}$. Assuming the current AGN heating rate does not evolve but remains constant to redshifts of 2, the heating rate per particle would rise by a factor of two. We find that the energy injected from radio AGN contribute substantially to the excess entropy in hot atmospheres needed to break self-similarity in cluster scaling relations. The detection frequency of radio AGN is inconsistent with the presence of strong cooling flows in 400SD clusters, but does not exclude weak cooling flows. It is unclear whether central AGN in 400SD clusters are maintained by feedback at the base of a cooling flow. Atmospheric heating by radio AGN may retard the development of strong cooling flows at early epochs.Comment: ApJ in pres

Network-level consequences of outgroup threats in banded mongooses: grooming and aggression between the sexes

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record1) Animal groups are heterogeneous assemblages of individuals with differing fitness interests, which may lead to internal conflict over investment in group territorial defence. Differences between individuals may lead to different behavioural responses to intergroup conflict, particularly between the sexes. These potential impacts have been little studied. 2) We used social network analysis to investigate the impact of simulated intergroup conflicts on social relationships in groups of wild banded mongooses (Mungos mungo), in which intergroup fights are more costly for males than females. We predicted that social cohesion (specifically male-to-male and female-to-male grooming) would increase after conflict, and aggression would decrease, to minimise conflict between the sexes. 3) Simulated intergroup conflicts were performed by exposing banded mongoose groups to scents, “war cry” playbacks, and live intruders from a rival group. All grooming and aggression interactions between individuals were recorded, and grooming and aggression social networks were created for the two days preceding a simulated intergroup conflict (pre-conflict network) and the two days after (post-conflict network). 4) We found no evidence of an increase in social cohesion after simulated conflicts, measured as grooming eigenvector centrality. Male-to-male, male-to-female and female-to-male grooming strength decreased after simulated intrusions compared to female-to-female grooming strength. However, male-female aggression decreased in intrusion trials compared to other interaction types, consistent with the hypothesis that intergroup encounters reduce the level of intragroup conflict between males and females. Males were more affected socially by intergroup encounters than females, which may be because they are investing in defence rather than internal relationships. 5) Focusing on individual relationship changes, using social network analysis, can reveal changes in the directionality of behaviour in response to intergroup encounters, and highlight how individual responses to conflict may scale up to affect social networks and, potentially, group 69 performance. This study highlights the importance of studying both group level behaviours and individual relationships to more fully understand responses to intergroup encounters.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC