Use of regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and results of the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies) RCM driven by the outputs of reanalysis ERA 40 data and HadAM3P general circulation model (GCM) results are used as input in the hydrological model. The objective is to investigate the effect of precipitation and temperature simulated with the PRECIS RCM nested in these two data sets on discharge simulated with the HBV model for three river basins in the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya (HKH) region. Six HBV model experiments are designed: HBV-Met, HBV-ERA and HBV-Had, HBV-MetCRU-corrected, HBV-ERABenchmark and HBV-HadBenchmark where HBV is driven by meteorological stations data, data from PRECIS nested in ERA-40 and HadAM3P, meteorological stations CRU corrected data, ERA-40 reanalysis and HadAM3P GCM data, respectively. Present day PRECIS simulations possess strong capacity to simulate spatial patterns of present day climate characteristics. However, also some quantitative biases exist in the HKH region, where PRECIS RCM simulations underestimate temperature and overestimate precipitation with respect to CRU observations. The calibration and validation results of the HBV model experiments show that the performance of HBV-Met is better than the HBV models driven by other data sources. However, using input data series from sources different from the data used in the model calibration shows that HBV-Had is more efficient than other models and HBV-Met has the least absolute relative error with respect to all other models. The uncertainties are higher in least efficient models (i.e. HBV-MetCRU-corrected and HBV-ERABenchmark) where the model parameters are also unrealistic. In terms of both robustness and uncertainty ranges the HBV models calibrated with PRECIS output performed better than other calibrated models except for HBV-Met which has shown a higher robustness. This suggests that in data sparse regions such as the HKH region data from regional climate models may be used as input in hydrological models for climate scenarios studies

Frequency-modulated atomic force microscopy localises viscoelastic remodelling in the ageing sheep aorta

We gratefully acknowledge funding from the Royal Society for the provision of an International Travel Grant for Collaboration (R112205) to RA, and Wellcome Trust Value in People Award to RA and MJS. MJS and BD gratefully acknowledge the support of the Medical Research Council (www.mrc.ac.uk: grant reference G1001398)

Ab Initio Calculation of the Lattice Distortions induced by Substitutional Ag- and Cu- Impurities in Alkali Halide Crystals

An ab initio study of the doping of alkali halide crystals (AX: A = Li, Na, K, Rb; X = F, Cl, Br, I) by ns2 anions (Ag- and Cu-) is presented. Large active clusters with 179 ions embedded in the surrounding crystalline lattice are considered in order to describe properly the lattice relaxation induced by the introduction of substitutional impurities. In all the cases considered, the lattice distortions imply the concerted movement of several shells of neighbors. The shell displacements are smaller for the smaller anion Cu-, as expected. The study of the family of rock-salt alkali halides (excepting CsF) allows us to extract trends that might be useful at a predictive level in the study of other impurity systems. Those trends are presented and discussed in terms of simple geometric arguments.Comment: LaTeX file. 8 pages, 3 EPS pictures. New version contains calculations of the energy of formation of the defects with model clusters of different size

Langerhans cell histiocytosis (histiocytosis X)

There has been a renewed interest in Langerhans cell histiocytosis in recent years due both to advances in basic research and to improvements in diagnostic and treatment approaches. In this article, we review the various aspects of the disease and the potential implications of these recent scientific researches for our understanding and management of the disorder.published_or_final_versio

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios

This paper presents estimates of water resources changes in three river basins in the Hindukush–Karakorum–Himalaya (HKH) region associated with climate change. The present climate (1961–1990) and future climate SRES A2 scenario (2071–2100) are simulated by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km. Two HBV models (i.e. HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS) are designed to quantify the future discharge. HBV-Met is calibrated and validated with inputs from observed meteorological data while HBV-PRECIS is calibrated and validated with inputs from PRECIS RCM simulations for the current climate. The future precipitation and temperature series are constructed through the delta change approach in HBV-Met, while in HBV-PRECIS future precipitation and temperature series from PRECIS RCM are directly used. The future discharge is simulated for three stages of glacier coverage: 100% glaciers, 50% glaciers and 0% glaciers. Generally temperature and precipitation shows an increase towards the end of 21st century. The efficiencies of HBV-Met during calibration and validation are higher compared to the HBV-PRECIS efficiencies. In a changed climate, discharge will generally increase in both models for 100% and 50% glacier scenarios. For the 0% glacier scenario, HBV-Met predicts a drastic decrease in water resources (up to 94%) in contrast to HBV-PRECIS which shows only a decrease up to 15%. Huge outliers in annual maximum discharge simulated through HBV-Met indicate that hydrological conditions are not predicted perfectly through the delta change downscaling approach. The results for HBV-Met simply confirm that the quality of observed data in this region is poor. The HBV-PRECIS model results are indicative of the higher risk of flood problems under climate change. The climate change signals in all three river basins are similar however, there are differences in the evaluated future water resources estimated through HBV-Met, whereas in HBV-PRECIS the changes in water resources are similar. This shows that the transfer of climate change signals into hydrological changes is more consistent in HBV-PRECIS than in HBV-Met. One of the reasons of the poorer results of the delta change approach is that in this approach the frequency of rainy days is not changed and day to day variability in temperature is not correctly transferred. However more research is needed to evaluate the uncertainties in both downscaling approaches. Moreover, the dynamical downscaling approach needs to be tested with other RCMs and preferably to other river basins as well

Optical and structural properties of ZnS

The ZnSxSe$_{1-x}$ (0 ≤ x ≤ 1) films were deposited on soda lime glass substrates by thermal evaporation technique. Optical and structural properties of these films were compared with the ZnSxSe$_{1-x}$ films deposited by various other techniques. XRD measurement showed that ZnSxSe$_{1-x}$ films are polycrystalline in nature with the preferred orientation along [111]. It was observed that the lattice constant decreases and the optical energy band gap increases with the sulfur content of the film. These results are in good agreement with the properties of ZnSxSe$_{1-x}$ films deposited by various other methods. Additionally, it was observed that the refractive index of a ZnSxSe$_{1-x}$ film decreases with increasing sulfur content. The results reported in this paper suggest that the lattice constants, optical energy band gap and refractive index of ZnSxSe$_{1-x}$ film can be tailored for a specific application by selecting suitable value of x